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Executive summary

The note uses data from the IDI (Integrated Data Infrastructure at Statistics New Zealand) to provide measures of potential fiscal impacts of four aspirational social investment scenarios that are outlined in Burton (2016). It is supplementary to a suite of background papers that underpin the Treasury's updated Long Term Fiscal Statement. The note also provides a descriptive picture of potential non-fiscal outcomes relating to the same scenarios.

The fiscal impacts from this analysis are expressed as cost-ratio parameters used in the calculations of the long term fiscal trajectories related to each scenario. This note aims to provide detail of the methods used in calculating these ratios. The descriptions of the scenarios and the resulting estimated fiscal trajectories can be found in Burton (2016).

This work is a first attempt aimed at giving some sense of how IDI data could be used in this sort of fiscal analysis. It is expected that as social investment initiatives come closer to implementation, with details more clearly specified, that these methods and calculations would be re-visited.

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