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Characteristics of Children at Greater Risk of Poor Outcomes as Adults

Publication Details

  • Characteristics of children at greater risk of poor outcomes as adults (AP 16/01)
  • Published: 18 Feb 2016
  • Status: Current
  • Authors: Ball, Chris; Tumen, Sarah; Crichton, Sarah; Templeton, Robert; Ota, Rissa; MacCormick, Conrad
  • Pages: (2),ii,43
  • ISBN: 978-0-908337-52-1 (Online)
  • Ref. No: AP 16/01
  • Pub. type: Analytical Papers
  • JEL Classification: C55; I38; J13

Characteristics of Children at Greater Risk of Poor Outcomes as Adults

Published 18 Feb 2016

Authors: Christopher Ball, Sarah Crichton, Robert Templeton and Sarah Tumen (The Treasury), Rissa Ota and Conrad MacCormick (Ministry of Social Development)

This Analytical Paper was prepared as part of the Treasury's work with other government agencies on Social Investment.


This paper summarises the main findings of an analysis of integrated administrative data that describes the characteristics of children who are at greater risk of poor long-term outcomes. It provides information on their contacts with selected government social service agencies and some of the costs associated with the provision of services by those agencies. The research is part of a broader work programme which seeks to improve the lives of New Zealanders by using information and evidence to better understand the characteristics and needs of people who use public services and the impact of those services on longer-term outcomes.

The analytical paper is being released alongside an infographic document which summarises the results of the analysis. See Characteristics of Children at Risk - Infographics.

This information can also be viewed via an interactive online tool which displays the data by geographical location. See Social Investment Insights at

Contact for Enquiries

All enquiries about this Analytical Paper should be directed to the Communications Team

Emily Marden | Communications
Tel: +64 4 971 6302
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Executive Summary

1 Introduction

2 Data and methods

3 Characteristics of children aged 0 to 5 years at risk of poor outcomes

4 Characteristics of children aged 6 to 14 years at risk of poor outcomes

5 Conclusion


ap16-01.pdf (498 KB) pp. 1–43

Characteristics of Children at Greater Risk of Poor Outcomes as Adults - Infographics

ap16-01-infographic.pdf (830 KB)

Extended Data Tables

ap16-01-data.xls (2,461 KB)


The views, opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this Analytical Paper are strictly those of the author(s). They do not necessarily reflect the views of the New Zealand Treasury, Statistics New Zealand or the New Zealand Government. The New Zealand Treasury and the New Zealand Government take no responsibility for any errors or omissions in, or for the correctness of, the information contained in this Analytical Paper.

The results in this report are not official statistics, they have been created for research purposes from the Integrated Data Infrastructure (IDI) managed by Statistics New Zealand.

Access to the anonymised data used in this study was provided by Statistics NZ in accordance with security and confidentiality provisions of the Statistics Act 1975. Only people authorised by the Statistics Act 1975 are allowed to see data about a particular person, household, business or organisation and the results in this paper have been confidentialised to protect these groups from identification.

Careful consideration has been given to the privacy, security and confidentiality issues associated with using administrative and survey data in the IDI. Further detail can be found in the Privacy impact assessment for the Integrated Data Infrastructure available from

The results are based in part on tax data supplied by Inland Revenue to Statistics NZ under the Tax Administration Act 1994. This tax data must be used only for statistical purposes, and no individual information may be published or disclosed in any other form, or provided to Inland Revenue for administrative or regulatory purposes.

Any person who has had access to the unit-record data has certified that they have been shown, have read, and have understood section 81 of the Tax Administration Act 1994, which relates to secrecy. Any discussion of data limitations or weaknesses is in the context of using the IDI for statistical purposes, and is not related to the data's ability to support Inland Revenue's core operational requirements.

The analysis and online tool have been made possible through Statistics NZ's Integrated Data Service. Through the collection of data from across the public sector (such as health, education and justice), Statistics NZ are enabling the analysis and understanding needed to improve social and economic outcomes for New Zealanders.

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