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6.3 Identifying those most at risk (page 1)

As discussed above, the regression modelling allows estimated risk scores of future poor outcomes to be calculated for a 'current' population' as at 31 December 2013. An estimated risk score of poor outcomes across multiple domains was calculated using a person's average ranked risk across the four domains. These average ranks were themselves ranked and the top 5% of young people selected and categorised as being at extreme risk, with the next 10% of individuals categorised as high risk.

The table in the A3 document contrasts the demographic characteristics and projected future outcomes of these high-risk groups with the rest of the youth population and the total youth population. Extreme-risk individuals were more likely to:

  • receive a benefit for more than five years between ages 25 and 34 – 40% compared to 26% of those at high risk and 5% of youth not identified as high risk
  • be given a custodial or community sentence between ages 25 and 34 – 46% compared to 24% of those identified as high risk and 5% of those not at high risk
  • not achieve a level 2 qualification by age 23 (72% compared to 58% of those at high risk and 18% of other young people) or a level 4 qualification by age 23 (95% compared to 90% of those at high risk and 55% of other young people)
  • use mental health or addiction services or mental health pharmaceuticals when aged 20 to 22 – 58% compared to 36% of those at high risk and 16% of those not at high risk.

High-risk individuals were more likely to be Māori and to live in areas of relatively high deprivation and were likely to have higher future corrections and benefit costs. The map and table at the bottom of the page shows that, whilst over a quarter of high-risk youth live in Auckland, young people outside of the main centres tend to be more likely to be high risk, particularly those living in the Gisborne, Northland, Hawke's Bay or Bay of Plenty regions.

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