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5.4 Target population projected outcomes and costs

Expected outcomes for each target population group are outlined in Table 22. As we might expect, young people in target populations are considerably more likely to experience poor outcomes than young people who are not in a target population.

For 15 to 19-year-olds, 'Teenagers with health, disability issues or special needs' are most likely to not achieve a level 2 qualification (75%), 'Mental health service users with stand-down or CYF history' are most likely to use mental health services (52%), 'Teenage boys with Youth Justice or Corrections history' are most likely to receive a corrections sentence (46%), and 'Teenage girls supported by benefits' are most likely to be on benefit longterm (62%).

Among 20 to 24-year-olds, 'Jobseekers in poor health with CYF history' and 'Long-term disability beneficiaries' are most likely to not achieve a level 2 qualification (71%), 'Jobseekers in poor health with CYF history' are most likely to use mental health services (75%), 'Young offenders with a custodial sentence' are most likely to receive a corrections sentence (67%), and 'Long-term disability beneficiaries' are most likely to be on benefit longterm (72%).

Table 22: Expected outcomes by target population
Target population descriptor No level 2
quals by age 23
Used mental health
service ages 20 to 22
Corrections sentence
ages 25 to 34
Longterm benefit receipt
ages 25 to 34

Age 15 to 19

       
Teenage boys with Youth Justice or Corrections history 59% 38% 46% 16%
Teenagers with health, disability issues or special needs 75% 35% 8% 62%
Teenage girls supported by benefits 66% 33% 19% 48%
Mental health service users with stand-down or CYF history 56% 52% 26% 29%
Experienced significant childhood disadvantage 58% 37% 33% 33%
Not in a target population 20% 17% 6% 6%

Age 20 to 24

       
Young offenders with acustodial sentence 63% 61% 67% 29%
Young offenders with a community sentence and CYF history 62% 44% 52% 29%
Jobseekers in poor health with CYF history 71% 75% 39% 54%
Sole parents not in fulltime employment with CYF history 61% 31% 27% 56%
Long-term disability beneficiaries 71% 43% 9% 72%
Not in a target population 21% 17% 5% 6%

Average annual expected corrections and benefit costs between ages 25 and 34 are given in Table 23 below for each target population, as well as for the population not covered by a target population at those ages.

Results largely match what we might expect given the population definitions and earlier results. Target populations have higher expected costs than young people not in a target population across all groups. Some groups have particularly high expected corrections costs ('Teenage boys with youth justice or corrections history' and 'Young offenders with custodial sentence') or high income support costs ('Teenagers with health, disability issues or special needs', 'Teenage girls supported by benefits', 'Jobseekers in poor health with CYF history', 'Sole parents not in full-time employment with CYF history' and 'Long-term disability beneficiaries').

While the 'Young offenders with community sentence and CYF history' group is defined by contact with the corrections system, expected corrections costs are not especially high (around $25,000 per person per annum), and total expected costs are lower than for other target populations at ages 25 to 34. Similarly, at the earlier ages, the 'Teenage boys with youth justice or corrections history' group and the 'Mental health service users with stand-down or CYF history' group have lower expected total costs than other target populations.

In considering this information it is important to recognise that the welfare and corrections costs identified only represent a partial picture of the direct fiscal costs and wider societal costs of poor outcomes.

Table 23: Projected costs by target population group - total from age 25 to 34
Target population descriptor Corrections costs
 ($000)
Benefit costs age
($000)
Total projected costs
($000)

Age 15 to 19

     
Teenage boys with Youth Justice or Corrections history 50.4 35.4 85.7
Teenagers with health, disability issues or special needs 7.9 118.1 126.0
Teenage girls supported by benefits 5.1 110.4 115.5
Mental health service users with stand-down or CYF history 23.3 62.7 86.0
Experienced significant childhood disadvantage 30.0 74.9 104.9
Not in a target population 1.4 16.4 17.8

Age 20 to 24

     
Young offenders with custodial sentence 101.4 59.8 161.2
Young offenders with community sentence and CYF history 25.3 66.5 91.8
Jobseekers in poor health with CYF history 35.6 114.8 150.3
Sole parents not in fulltime employment with CYF history 6.7 132.5 139.2
Long-term disability beneficiaries 4.0 132.2 136.2
Not in a target population 2.0 17.6 19.6
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