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5.2 Target population descriptions and criteria

The 10 target populations identified are described in Table 21 below along with the criteria by which they can be identified. The two measures of overall risk defined in the previous section are also given. As discussed above, the clusters were primarily designed to align with our at-risk measure, based on someone having extreme risk (being in the top 5% of the population) on at least one outcome measure. Nevertheless, these groups also tend to have a high probability of having high risk across multiple outcomes (our other overall risk categorisation). Around two-thirds or more of each of the 10 target populations are considered to be at extreme risk of one or more poor outcomes, while for most groups, three-quarters or more are predicted to be at high risk across multiple outcomes. The two groups that are the exception to this are 'Teenagers with health, disability issues or special needs' (aged 15 to 19) and 'Long-term disability beneficiaries' (aged 20 to 24). Both of these groups tend to have extreme risk of a poor welfare and education outcomes, but are far less at risk of poor corrections outcomes than other groups. A breakdown of target populations by territorial authority is included in Appendix 5.

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