The Treasury

Global Navigation

Personal tools

You are here: Home > Publications > Research and Policy > Analytical Papers > 2015 > Using Integrated Administrative Data to Identify Youth Who Are at Risk of Poor Outcomes as Adults (AP 15/02)


Using Integrated Administrative Data to Identify Youth Who Are at Risk of Poor Outcomes as Adults

Publication Details

  • Using Integrated Administrative Data to Identify Youth Who are at Risk of Poor Outcomes as Adults
  • Published: 9 Dec 2015
  • Status: Current
  • Authors: McLeod, Keith; Ball, Chris; Tumen, Sarah; Crichton, Sarah; Dixon, Sylvia; Templeton, Robert
  • Pages: (4),iv,66
  • ISBN: 978-0-908337-33-0 (Online)
  • Ref. No: AP 15/02
  • Pub. type: Analytical Papers
  • JEL Classification: I38; J13; C55

Using Integrated Administrative Data to Identify Youth Who Are at Risk of Poor Outcomes as Adults

Published 9 Dec 2015

Authors: Keith McLeod, Robert Templeton, Christopher Ball, Sarah Tumen, Sarah Crichton and Sylvia Dixon

This Analytical Paper was prepared as part of the Treasury's work with other government agencies on Social Investment.


This paper summarises findings from an analysis of integrated administrative data seeking to identify the characteristics of young people aged 15 to 24 who are most at risk of poor longterm outcomes. The research is part of a broader 'social investment approach' by government agencies seeking to target services more effectively towards those most at need and reflects the recognition that such an approach requires better evidence about who these at-risk groups are. The analysis identifies those characteristics in the administrative data that are most predictive of a range of future poor outcomes and how this changes over the course of a young person's entry into adulthood and identifies groups of young people at particular risk at different ages.

The analytical paper is being released alongside an A3 document which summarises the results of the analysis, and a set of detailed excel tables. See links below.


Browse section/chapter Download/Page range

Executive summary

1 Introduction

2 Data and methods

3 Which young people experience poor outcomes?

4 Predicting poor outcomes

5 Target populations

6 Interpreting the A3 document

7 Conclusions


ap15-02.pdf (661 KB) pp. (4),i-iv,1-66

Youth At Risk: Identifying a Target Population (Ages 15-24) - A3

ap15-02-target-pop.pdf (1,618 KB)

Extended Data Tables

ap15-02-data.xls (5,378 KB)


The views, opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this Analytical Paper are strictly those of the author(s). They do not necessarily reflect the views of the New Zealand Treasury, Statistics New Zealand or the New Zealand Government. The New Zealand Treasury and the New Zealand Government take no responsibility for any errors or omissions in, or for the correctness of, the information contained in this Analytical Paper.

The results in this report are not official statistics, they have been created for research purposes from the Integrated Data Infrastructure (IDI) managed by Statistics New Zealand.

Access to the anonymised data used in this study was provided by Statistics NZ in accordance with security and confidentiality provisions of the Statistics Act 1975. Only people authorised by the Statistics Act 1975 are allowed to see data about a particular person, household, business or organisation and the results in this paper have been confidentialised to protect these groups from identification.

Careful consideration has been given to the privacy, security and confidentiality issues associated with using administrative and survey data in the IDI. Further detail can be found in the Privacy impact assessment for the Integrated Data Infrastructure available from

The results are based in part on tax data supplied by Inland Revenue to Statistics NZ under the Tax Administration Act 1994. This tax data must be used only for statistical purposes, and no individual information may be published or disclosed in any other form, or provided to Inland Revenue for administrative or regulatory purposes.

Any person who has had access to the unit-record data has certified that they have been shown, have read, and have understood section 81 of the Tax Administration Act 1994, which relates to secrecy. Any discussion of data limitations or weaknesses is in the context of using the IDI for statistical purposes, and is not related to the data's ability to support Inland Revenue's core
operational requirements.

Contact for Enquiries

All enquiries about this Analytical Paper should be directed to the Communications Team

Deborah Cuzens | Communications Advisors
Tel: +64 4 890 7415
Page top