Fergus Welsh
Chief Financial Officer
The Financial Statements of the Government of New Zealand for the Three Months Ended 30 September 2011 were released by the Treasury today.
The monthly financial statements are compared against monthly forecast tracks based on the 2011 Pre-election Economic and Fiscal Update (PREFU) published on 25 October 2011.
For the first three months of the financial year the operating balance before gains and losses deficit was $2.5 billion, which was $210 million greater than expected.
The key driver of this difference was core Crown tax revenue, which at $13.0 billion was $301 million (2.3%) lower than forecast. The main variances were as follows:
- GST revenue was $154m (4.2%) below forecast
- other individuals’ tax was $85m (13.2%) below forecast, and
- corporate tax was $63m (3.2%) below forecast.
Monthly flows of tax revenue can be quite volatile. With only one month of new data since completing the PREFU forecasts it is likely this volatility will reduce in the coming months. For example, since completing the PREFU forecasts there have been a range of corporate profit announcements, both positive and negative.
The operating balance deficit was close to forecast at $7.0 billion. This included forecast losses on the valuation of long term liabilities of the GSF and ACC ($1.9 billion) and losses on investment portfolios ($2.7 billion). We have forecast for these investment losses to reverse during the year but returns on global equity markets are currently volatile.
|
|
Year to date | Full Year | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $ million | September 2011 Actual1 |
September 2011 PREFU Forecast1 |
Variance to PREFU $m |
Variance to PREFU % |
June 2012 PREFU Forecast2 |
| Core Crown | |||||
| Core Crown tax revenue | 13,026 | 13,327 | (301) | (2.3) | 55,451 |
| Core Crown expenses | 17,267 | 17,382 | 115 | 0.7 | 74,460 |
| Core Crown residual cash | (4,491) | (4,651) | 160 | 3.4 | (13,636) |
| Gross debt3 | 76,278 | 76,589 | 311 | 0.4 | 79,779 |
| as a percentage of GDP | 38.1% | 38.2% | 37.7% | ||
| Net debt4 | 45,247 | 45,709 | 462 | 1.0 | 53,823 |
| as a percentage of GDP | 22.6% | 22.8% | 25.4% | ||
| Total Crown | |||||
| Operating balance before gains and losses | (2,480) | (2,270) | (210) | (9.3) | (10,809) |
| Operating balance | (6,996) | (6,984) | (12) | (0.2) | (12,601) |
| Net worth | 73,916 | 73,877 | 39 | 0.1 | 68,282 |
1 Using GDP for the year ended 30 June 2011 of $200,291 million (Source: Statistics New Zealand)
2 Using forecast GDP for the year ended 30 June 2012 of $211,773 million (Source: Treasury)
3 Gross sovereign-issued debt excluding settlement cash and Reserve Bank bills
4 Net core Crown debt excluding student loans and other advances
ENDS
Officer for Enquiries
Kamlesh Patel | Chief Financial Officer and Chief Accountant PortfolioTel: +64 4 917 6094
Fax: +64 4 471 5956
Email: [email protected]