Struan Little
Deputy Secretary to the Treasury
The Financial Statements of the Government of New Zealand for the Eleven Months Ended 31 May 2011 were released by the Treasury today.
The monthly financial statements are compared against monthly forecast tracks based on the 2011 Budget Economic and Fiscal Update published on 19 May 2011.
The key features of the results were:
- Core Crown tax revenue in the eleven month period stood at $47.4 billion (0.5% above forecast). GST was the largest contributor to the better than expected outcome at $512 million or 4.2% above forecast. Indications are that higher than forecast private consumption was a significant contributor to this variance with March quarter retail sales rising more than we expected. In addition, GST refunds came in lower than forecast. Corporate tax revenue, meanwhile, was $118m (1.8%) below forecast.
- Core Crown expenses of $62.1 billion were 1.2% or $770 million below forecast with most departments continuing to report some under expenditure against their forecasts. Most of this under expenditure is expected to persist for the full year ended 30 June.
- The deficit in operating balance deficit before gains and losses, at $10.8 billion, was 10.6% smaller than expected due to the higher than forecast tax revenue and lower than anticipated core Crown expenses. Looking towards the year-end, we expect tax revenue for the full year to be in line with (or even stronger than) forecast and expenses to continue to be below forecast for the full year.
Assuming the Government’s share of the Canterbury earthquake costs for the current fiscal year are close to forecast, the OBEGAL deficit of $16.7 billion set out in the Budget is now expected to come closer to $16 billion for the year to 30 June. - Gross debt at 31 May was $3.3 billion or 4.7% higher than forecast due to valuation movements as a result of higher than forecast exchange rates and Treasury bills’ issuance remaining ahead of forecast. At $73.2 billion or 37.6% of GDP, gross debt was $20.5 billion higher than the same time last year.
- By in large, the movements in gross debt were net debt neutral meaning that at 31 May 2011 net debt was close to forecast at $39.7 billion or 20.4% of GDP. However this was $14.3 billion higher than at the same time last year, resulting in net finance costs $516 million higher than in the same period last year.
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|
Year to date | Full Year | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $ million | May 2011 Actual1 |
May 2011 BEFU Forecast1 |
Variance to BEFU $m |
Variance to BEFU % |
June 2011 BEFU Forecast2 |
| Core Crown | |||||
| Core Crown tax revenue | 47,360 | 47,146 | 214 | 0.5 | 51,189 |
| Core Crown revenue | 51,868 | 52,163 | (295) | (0.6) | 56,950 |
| Core Crown expenses | 62,139 | 62,909 | 770 | 1.2 | 72,794 |
| Core Crown residual cash | (12,873) | (13,238) | 365 | 2.8 | (14,951) |
| Gross debt3 | 73,176 | 69,907 | (3,270) | (4.7) | 71,578 |
| as a percentage of GDP | 37.6% | 35.9% | 35.8% | ||
| Net debt4 | 39,653 | 39,862 | 209 | 0.5 | 41,502 |
| as a percentage of GDP | 20.4% | 20.5% | 20.8% | ||
| Total Crown | |||||
| Operating balance before gains and losses | (10,752) | (12,022) | 1,270 | 10.6 | (16,728) |
| Operating balance | (5,021) | (4,908) | (113) | (2.3) | (9,437) |
| Net Worth | 89,337 | 89,909 | (572) | (0.6) | 85,519 |
1 Using GDP for the year ended 31 December 2010 of $194,629 million (Source: Statistics New Zealand)
2 Using forecast GDP for the year ended 30 June 2011 of $199,819 million (Source: Treasury)
3 Gross sovereign-issued debt excluding settlement cash and Reserve Bank bills
4 Net core Crown debt excluding student loans and other advances
ENDS
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