Law and order

The justice sector contributes to society by protecting civil and property rights, as well as providing a fair and effective way to resolve disputes. In the criminal justice area, the sector aims to:

• maintain law and order, focussing on minimising harm and victimisation
• bring perpetrators to justice with appropriate punishment, and
• provide rehabilitation for offenders to reduce reoffending.

The discussion in this section draws on the Treasury (2013). Window of Opportunity to Deliver Better Justice Sector Outcomes over the Long Term. Background paper for the 2013 Statement on the Long-Term Fiscal Position. Available at www.treasury.govt.nz/government/longterm/fiscalposition/2013/affordingourfuture.

Criminal justice can be viewed as a pipeline. Once arrested and prosecuted, individuals move through the system, managed by Police. From there they flow into the court system and potentially through to Corrections. Decisions by one agency - for example, to prosecute more people - can have a significant impact on the other agencies.

Law and order costs were around 1.7% of GDP in 2010. They are therefore a fairly small proportion of total government spending compared to the other areas this Statement discusses.

We think there will be relatively fewer people in the justice sector pipeline in the future

Contrary to what may be the general perception, New Zealand's recorded crime rate has been falling since the early 1990s[105] - similar to trends around the world. Although we are not sure of the exact reasons for this fall, the recent focus on crime prevention and rehabilitation in New Zealand may have helped.

Figure 20 Recorded crimes per 10,000 people

This crime rate reduction has only recently translated into a reduction in forecast prisoner numbers. But the sector is now forecasting reductions in both people entering the criminal justice system and prisoner numbers. This is a significant change from forecasts prior to 2011, which projected large increases in prisoner numbers.[106] Changes to the sector's operations appear to have helped this reduction in numbers. For example, Police are now using warnings and other forms of deterrence, instead of prosecutions, to tackle low-level offending where appropriate.

The crime rate - and the number of court cases and prisoners - may decrease further in the future, as the population ages. This is because young men are the largest offender group. More than 40% of sentences were handed down to 17-30 year old men in 2011. And in future there will be relatively fewer young men in the population.

We are uncertain if this fall in crime will reduce justice costs. But our projections assume that it will, and we have built this assumption into our "Resume Historic Cost Growth" scenario. This scenario shows a reduction in costs, from 1.7% of GDP in 2010 to 1.4% of GDP in 2060.

How do we best take advantage of this reduction in crime?

The current and expected reduction in crime and the fall in the number of people entering the criminal justice system create an opportunity for the sector. Resources previously needed to keep up with increasing numbers in the system can be used to improve services and efficiency instead. The sector can make use of this opportunity to create a virtuous cycle of improved services and greater efficiency. The virtuous cycle is the result of two elements:

• Policy and operational settings that reduce crime and reoffending. The sector may benefit from considering the settings along the criminal justice pipeline. Examples include: how to deal with at-risk groups (crime prevention and support for victims), which penalties are appropriate for each offender, and which rehabilitation services are most effective and efficient to reduce reoffending. Doing this will help reduce numbers entering the criminal justice system and achieve the appropriate response to crime to benefit society.
• Delivering better public services through modernisation and reinvestment. Policy and operational settings matter hugely in terms of achieving improved outcomes, including reducing numbers in the criminal justice system. Translating this reduction into savings will help achieve the virtuous cycle, for example by closing buildings that are underutilised. The savings and resources freed up can be redeployed into areas that will deliver the highest benefits to society. If the savings are cashable, they could also be used in other areas of public spending, or to reduce taxes or government debt.

This cycle will not happen automatically. Decisions involve a number of different players, some of whom are independent from the sector (eg, judges), and may involve competing interests. Consensus across the sector and among the wider public about what society wants to achieve with justice services and how to measure sector performance will be critical to success.

To help achieve this consensus and deliver on their objectives, the sector may benefit from:

• Collaborating even more across the sector to achieve results. For example, justice sector agencies will co-locate in a Justice and Emergency Services Precinct in Christchurch. There are other ways to increase co-operation, including developing shared strategic policy objectives as well as joint capital planning and prioritisation.
• Focussing resources on the most effective interventions to reduce crime, based on evidence. The sector can use off the information it already has to further improve outcomes for society. This may include knowing more about when, where and how best to intervene to improve public safety and reduce harm. This will maximise the benefits from reinvesting the resources freed up from fewer people entering the criminal justice pipeline. This may include decisions about whether to provide more support for people who are at the greatest risk of becoming offenders or to invest in rehabilitation services for those who have already committed an offence.
• Telling a clear and compelling story on justice sector performance, focussing more on what is being achieved and less on how services are provided. Current measures of service performance tend to focus on inputs (eg, the number of courthouses, Police stations and officers). We should hold justice sector agencies to account for what really matters: the quality of service the public experiences (eg, how quickly Police respond, how safe we are, and how easily we can access justice services). This matters more than the number of buildings or people. Measuring what is achieved will remove a critical handbrake on service improvements. It will allow the sector to take advantage of technological advances and better operating practices, such as Police using mobile communications technology. This will result in better services for New Zealanders.

The outlook for the sector has changed significantly since the last Statement on New Zealand's Long-Term Fiscal Position in 2009. The current and expected reduction in numbers entering the criminal justice pipeline creates an opportunity for the sector. To take full advantage of this opportunity, the sector may benefit from a consensus on what we want to achieve with justice services.