Affording Our Future
Page updated 12 Jul 2013
Affording Our Future, the Treasury's 2013 Statement on the Long-Term Fiscal Position, was published on 11 July 2013.
The Public Finance Act (1989) requires the Treasury to produce a Statement on the Crown's Long-Term Fiscal Position at least every four years. These statements provide 40-year projections on the fiscal position, identify challenges that will face future governments, such as those arising from society's ageing population, and provide members of the public with information on evidence-based options for meeting those challenges.
Documents
| Doc. Date | Author | Title | View/Download |
|---|---|---|---|
Key Documents |
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| Jul 2013 | The Treasury | Affording Our Future - Statement of New Zealand's Long-term Fiscal Position | ltfs-13-aof.pdf (506 KB) |
| Jul 2013 | The Treasury | Quick Guide to Affording Our Future | ltfs-13-aof-qg.pdf (220 KB) |
| 11 Jul 2013 | Gabriel Makhlouf, Secretary to the Treasury |
Speech Notes at Media Conference to Coincide with the Tabling of Affording Our Future | sp-notes-aof-11jul13.pdf (74 KB) |
| 11 Jul 2013 | The Treasury | Charts and Data - Affording Our Future - Statement on the Long-term Fiscal Position Also available from the 2013 Statement home page. |
ltfs-13-data-aof.xls (205 KB) |
| Jul 2013 | The Treasury | Long-term Fiscal Model Updated for the 2013 Statement on New Zealand's Long-term Fiscal Position. |
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Background Papers Supporting Affording Our Future |
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| Jul 2013 | The Treasury | Long-term Fiscal Projections: Reassessing Assumptions, Testing New Perspectives | ltfs-13-bg-ratna.pdf (1191 KB) |
| Jul 2013 | The Treasury | Fiscal Sustainability under an Ageing Population Structure | ltfs-13-bg-fsaps.pdf (470 KB) |
| Jul 2013 | The Treasury | Future Costs of Retirement Income Policy, and Ways of Addressing Them | ltfs-13-bg-fcrip.pdf (1845 KB) |
| Jul 2013 | The Treasury | The Role of Tax in Maintaining a Sustainable Fiscal Position | ltfs-13-bg-rtmsfp.pdf (988 KB) |
| Jul 2013 | The Treasury | Future Costs of Working-Age Welfare | ltfs-13-bg-fcwaw.pdf (321 KB) |
| Jul 2013 | The Treasury | Health Projections and Policy Options | ltfs-13-bg-lhppo.pdf (455 KB) |
| Jul 2013 | The Treasury | Long-term Care and Fiscal Sustainability | ltfs-13-bg-lcfs.pdf (314 KB) |
| Jul 2013 | The Treasury | Long-Term Challenges and Opportunities in the Natural Resource Sector: Three Case Studies | ltfs-13-bg-nrs.pdf (273 KB) |
| Jul 2013 | The Treasury | Window of Opportunity to Deliver Better Justice Sector Outcomes over the Long Term | ltfs-13-bg-bjso.pdf (272 KB) |
| Jul 2013 | The Treasury | The Education Sector over the Long Term | ltfs-13-bg-eslt.pdf (2147 KB) |
| Jul 2013 | Robert A Buckle & Amy A Cruickshank | The Requirements for Long-Run Fiscal Sustainability New Zealand Treasury Working Paper 13/20. |
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Papers That Contributed to Our Analytical Framework |
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| Jul 2013 | Nick Carroll | Structural Change in the New Zealand Economy 1974-2012 | ltfs-13-bg-scnze.pdf (1119 KB) |
| Jul 2013 | Mario Di Maio | External Influences on New Zealand's Economic Potential | ltfs-13-bg-einzep.pdf (800 KB) |
| Jul 2013 | Christopher Ball & John Creedy | Population Ageing and the Growth of Income and Consumption Tax Revenue New Zealand Treasury Working Paper 13/09. |
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| 16 Sep 2012 | Paul Carpinter | History of the Welfare State in New Zealand | ltfep-s2-03.pdf (199 KB) |
| Oct 2012 | Rebecca Prebble | The Long-Term Fiscal Living Standards Framework: Addressing Fairness | ltfep-s2-04.pdf (99 KB) |
| Apr 2011 | The Treasury | Government and Economic Growth: Does Size Matter? [New Zealand Treasury Paper 11/01] | tp-govtsize-apr11.pdf (592 KB) |
| Apr 2013 | Anne-Marie Brook | Policy Options to Narrow New Zealand's Saving-Investment Imbalance Draft for comment published on Reserve Bank of New Zealand website. |
5200822.pdf (120 KB) |
| Jul 2013 | Omar A. Aziz, Christopher Ball, John Creedy & Jesse Eedrah |
The Distributional Impact of Population Ageing New Zealand Treasury Working Paper 13/13. |
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| Apr 2013 | Christopher Ball & John Creedy | Tax Policy with Uncertain Future Costs: Some Simple Models | twp13-07.pdf (956 KB) |
| Jan 2013 | Bill Moran, The Treasury | Cover Note to the Treasury's Long-Term Fiscal Policy Papers: The Importance of the Near-Term Fiscal Strategy | ltfep-note-jan13.pdf (17 KB) |
Externally-Commissioned Research |
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| Nov 2012 | Andrew Coleman | Intergenerational transfers and public policy Published on Victoria University of Wellington website. |
Coleman Paper (662 KB) |
| Dec 2012 | Geoff Bascand | Planning for the future: Structural change in New Zealand's population, labour force, and productivity Paper presented at Affording Our Future Conference; published on Victoria University of Wellington website. |
Bascand Paper (1,824 KB) |
| Oct 2012 | Roger Hurnard | The assessment of retirement income system options Paper prepared for the Long-term Fiscal External Panel; published on Victoria University of Wellington website. |
ltfep-s3-04.pdf (324 KB) |
| Jul 2013 | Ross Guest | Intergenerational Smoothing of New Zealand’s Future Fiscal Costs New Zealand Treasury Working Paper 13/12. |
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| Jan 2013 | Nicholas Mays | Reorientating the New Zealand health care system to meet the challenge of long-term conditions in a fiscally constrained environment Revised version of a paper prepared for the Long-term Fiscal External Panel; published on Victoria University of Wellington website. |
Mays Paper (876 KB) |
| Aug 2012 | Chris Cunningham | Aotearoa's Long Term Fiscal Position Paper prepared for the Long-term Fiscal External Panel; published on Victoria University of Wellington website. |
Cunningham Paper (591 KB) |
| Mar 2013 | John Creedy & Norman Gemmell | Can Automatic Tax Increases Pay for the Public Spending Effects of Population Ageing in New Zealand? Provisional paper prepared for the Long-term Fiscal External Panel; published on Victoria University of Wellington website. |
ltfep-s5-summary-v2.pdf (1,627 KB) |
| Dec 2012 | Susan St John | Fiscal Sustainability in an Ageing Population: Adapting Universal Provision Paper prepared for the Affording Our Future Conference; published on Victoria University of Wellington website. |
St John Paper (1,326 KB) |
| [Sep 2012] | T.M. Wilkinson | Intergenerational Ethics and Long-Term Fiscal Planning Paper prepared for the Long-term Fiscal External Panel; published on Victoria University of Wellington website. |
ltfep-wilkinson.pdf (106 KB) |
| 2012 | Commission for Financial Literacy and Retirement Income | The sustainability of New Zealand's retirement income framework Published on Victoria University of Wellington website. |
Crossan Paper (574 KB) |
| Dec 2012 | Colin James | Making big decisions for the future Paper prepared for the Affording Our Future Conference; published on Victoria University of Wellington website. |
James Paper (424 KB) |
| Dec 2012 | Michael Belgrave | Social Policy History: Forty Years On, Forty Years Back Paper prepared for the Affording Our Future Conference; published on Victoria University of Wellington website. |
Belgrave Paper (692 KB) |
| Dec 2012 | Patrick Nolan, Lauren Thorpe, Kimberley Trewhitt | Entitlement Reform Paper prepared for the Affording Our Future Conference; published on Victoria University of Wellington website. |
Nolan Paper (651 KB) |
| Dec 2012 | Rt Hon Simon Upton | Long Term Fiscal Risks – New Zealand's Case in the Context of OECD Countries Research assistance from James Beard and Michelle Harding. Paper prepared for the Affording Our Future Conference; published on Victoria University of Wellington website. |
Upton Paper (1,168 KB) |
| Dec 2012 | Hon Dr Sir Michael Cullen | The Political Economy of Long Term Fiscal planning from a Social Democratic Perspective Paper prepared for the Affording Our Future Conference; published on Victoria University of Wellington website. |
Cullen Paper (316 KB) |
| Dec 2012 | Ross Guest | Population Ageing, Productivity, and Policies: A survey with implications for New Zealand Paper prepared for the Affording Our Future Conference; published on Victoria University of Wellington website. |
Guest Paper (623 KB) |
| Jul 2013 | Neil Quigley & Lewis Evans | Intergenerational Contracts and Time Consistency: Implications for Policy Settings and Governance in the Social Welfare System | ltfs-quigley-evans.pdf (144 KB) |
| Jul 2013 | Bernard Cadogan | Welfare Policy - Governance History and Political Philosophy |
ltfs-cadogan.pdf (603 KB) |
| Jul 2013 | The Treasury | Colmar Brunton Survey of Attitudes to Long-term Fiscal Sustainability [2012] Survey questions and results from phone survey conducted in June/July 2012. |
ltfs-surveyresults-jul13.pdf (119 KB) |
Additional links to papers and externally-commissioned research supporting the 2013 Statement will be published on this page in due course.
Related Information
- Long-term Fiscal Model
- Long-Term Fiscal External Panel or Long-Term Fiscal External Panel (VUW website) - As part of preparations for the 2013 Statement, the Treasury in conjunction with Victoria University established an external panel of independent experts and commentators with whom it tests its assumptions and analysis.
- Affording Our Future Conference 2012 (VUW website) - The Treasury and Victoria University also co-sponsored a two-day conference on Affording Our Future in December 2012.
Contact for Enquiries
Chris Ritchie | Long Term Fiscal Communications, The Treasury
Tel: (64 4) 917 6279
Email: chris.ritchie@treasury.govt.nz
Tel: (64 4) 917 6279
Email: chris.ritchie@treasury.govt.nz
