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Challenges and Choices: New Zealand's Long-Term Fiscal Statement

Statement of Responsibility under Section 26N of the Public Finance Act (1989)

The Treasury has used its best professional judgements about the risks and the outlook in preparing this Statement on the New Zealand Government's long-term fiscal position.

This Statement on the New Zealand Government's long-term fiscal position relates to a period of at least 40 consecutive financial years, commencing with the 2009/10 financial year.

John Whitehead
Secretary to the Treasury

29 October 2009

 

Forecasts and projections

In this Statement, the term forecasts refers to data from Budget 2009 that were our best attempts to predict economic and fiscal variables out to 2013. The best data available at the time, various modelling and forecasting tools, and the expertise and experience of many individuals were all used to produce these forecasts. They attempted to factor in the impacts of any policies or events that, while not in existence at the time, were planned to occur over the next five years.

Projections refer to extensions of the forecast base into the longer term out to 2050. They apply assumptions, often based on long-term averages, to grow forward variables from their forecast base. Generally, assumptions are based on current policies. Future policies or events beyond those incorporated in the forecast base are not normally introduced. Unlike forecasts, projections should not be thought of as the best current view of likely future outcomes. Rather, they simply represent potential outcomes in the post-forecast years, which are entirely dependent on the assumptions lying behind them.

 

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