Session One - Fiscal Framework and Projections Long-Term Fiscal External Panel
Page updated 18 Sep 2012
The first session of the Long-Term Fiscal External Panel was held at Rutherford House, Victoria University of Wellington, on Thursday 30 August.
The topic for this panel session was the Fiscal Framework and Projections.
This session discussed the requirements for long-term fiscal sustainability, including what is meant by fiscal sustainability, why it matters, and how it can be measured. The session discussed these issues in light of New Zealand's current fiscal framework, the Public Finance Act 1989.
This session also discussed the Treasury's Long-Term Fiscal Model (LTFM) including its key underlying assumptions (demographic, economic and fiscal), the preliminary fiscal projections, and the sensitivity of the projections to the underlying modelling assumptions.
The agenda for the session, a summary of the discussion from the session, and draft research papers, which formed the basis of much of the Panel's first session deliberations, are available in the table of documents below.
|30 Aug 2012||Victoria University of Wellington||Agenda: Session One - Fiscal Framework and Projections||(VUW website)|
|30 Aug 2012||Victoria University of Wellington||Summary: Session One - Fiscal Framework and Projections||ltfep-s1-summary.pdf (367 KB)|
|Aug 2012||Robert Buckle & Amy Cruickshank||The Requirements for Long-Run Fiscal Sustainability: Draft Paper for the Long-Term External Panel||ltfep-s1-01.pdf (485 KB)|
|Aug 2012||Paul Rodway||Long-Term Fiscal Projections: Reassessing Assumptions, Testing New Perspectives: Draft Paper for the Long-Term Fiscal External Panel||ltfep-s1-02.pdf (618 KB)|
|Aug 2012||Matthew Bell||Fiscal Sustainability Under an Ageing Population Structure: Draft Paper for the Long-Term Fiscal External Panel||ltfep-s1-03.pdf (503 KB)|
|Aug 2012||Nick Carroll||Structural Change in the New Zealand Economy 1974-2012: Draft Paper for the Long-Term Fiscal External Panel||ltfep-s1-04.pdf (1044 KB)|
|Aug 2012||Mario di Maio||External Influences on New Zealand's Economic Potential: Draft Paper for the Long-Term Fiscal External Panel||ltfep-s1-05.pdf (834 KB)|
|30 Aug 2012||Geoff Bascand, Statistics New Zealand||Demographic projections from Statistics New Zealand: Aims, methods, and results||ltfep-s1-06.pdf (755 KB)|