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Debt

Manage total debt at prudent levels ensuring net debt remains consistently below 40% of GDP (Fiscal Strategy)

Table 7 - Net debt[2] and Gross debt[3]
Year ended 30 June Actual
2005
Actual
2006
Actual
2007
Actual
2008
Actual
2009
Actual
2010
Forecast
Original
Budget
Forecast
Estimated
Actuals
Net debt ($m) 19,879 16,163 13,380 10,258 17,119 26,738 27,319 26,642
Net debt (% GDP) 12.9% 10.0% 7.8% 5.6% 9.3% 14.1% 15.6% 14.1%
Gross debt ($m) 35,478 33,903 30,647 31,390 43,356 53,591 50,973 53,810
Gross debt (% GDP) 23.0% 21.0% 17.9% 17.2% 23.5% 28.3% 29.1% 28.4%

Net Debt

Net debt increases as a result of cash deficits and declines as a result of cash surpluses. It also fluctuates in line with valuation movements in the underlying financial assets and liabilities of the Crown and movements in the amounts of currency issued to New Zealand banks.

The $9.6 billion increase in net debt over the year (figure 14) was primarily due to the residual cash deficit of $9.0 billion recorded this year (refer table 8).

Figure 14 - Net debt
Figure 14 - Net debt   .
Source:  The Treasury
Table 8 - Movement in net debt
Year ended 30 June
$ million
Actual
2005
Actual
2006
Actual
2007
Actual
2008
Actual
2009
Actual
2010
Forecast
Original
Budget
Forecast
Estimated
Actuals
Opening net debt 23,858 19,879 16,163 13,380 10,258 17,119 15,482 17,119
Net core Crown cash flow from operations (8,560) (8,859) (8,586) (7,292) 1,967 4,991 6,672 4,903
Contributions to NZS Fund 2,107 2,337 2,048 2,104 2,243 250 250 250
Purchase of physical assets 1,372 1,826 1,755 1,433 1,625 1,778 2,347 2,018
Advances and capital injections 1,977 1,711 1,990 1,698 2,804 1,981 2,596 1,899
Core Crown residual cash (surplus)/deficit (3,104) (2,985) (2,793) (2,057) 8,639 9,000 11,865 9,070
Movements in circulating currency (188) (165) (81) (86) (475) (15) (181) (34)
Other valuation changes in financial assets and financial liabilities (687) (566) 91 (979) (1,303) 634 153 487
Closing net debt 19,879 16,163 13,380 10,258 17,119 26,738 27,319 26,642
Figure 15 - Movements in residual cash ($billion)
Figure 15 - Movements in residual cash ($billion)   .
Source:  The Treasury

While the residual cash deficit was as forecast, the deficit was $0.4 billion larger than last year, despite the reduction in contributions to the NZS Fund.

Figure 15 summarises the movement in residual cash over the year. Specifically:

  • While core Crown tax revenue decreased by $3.9 billion, core Crown tax receipts were only lower by $0.7 billion. The main difference was that most of the cash received in respect of the structured finance tax settlements was received in the current financial year (compared with revenue which was recognised in the previous year).
  • The increase in benefit payments was in line with the increase in benefit expenses. A number of the decreases in core Crown expenses did not have an immediate cash impact (eg, asset impairments and the deposit guarantee provision). The cash impact of other core Crown expense movements resulted in a reduction in other operating cash flows.
  • Offsetting the increase in the operating cash deficit was the reduction in NZS Fund contributions and last year's acquisition of KiwiRail.
Figure 16 - Reconciliation of the operating deficit and core Crown residual cash for the year ended 30 June 2010 ($billion)
Figure 16 - Reconciliation of the operating deficit and core Crown residual cash for the year ended 30 June 2010 ($billion).

Gross debt has increased by $10.2 billion since last year (figure 17). The majority of this increase came from the issue of $12.4 billion of bonds offset by the repayment of a $4.2 billion bond maturity in July 2009. When combined with the proceeds from non-market domestic bonds, the net issuance of domestic bonds increased gross debt by $8.4 billion (table 9).

Figure 17 - Gross debt
Figure 17 - Gross debt   .
Source:  The Treasury

As a result of the strong demand for bonds in the early part of 2009/10 the New Zealand Debt Management Office (NZDMO) increased the 2009/10 domestic bond programme by $2 billion to $10.5 billion in December 2009. In April 2010 a further $2 billion increase was approved, allowing the issue of bonds up to $12.5 billion. These increases enabled the NZDMO to continue issuance over the fiscal year in line with market demand. The funding generated from the bond issuance contributed to an increase in the Government’s cash position at year end.

Also contributing to the increase in gross debt was an increase of $1.5 billion to the Crown's position with the International Monetary Fund (IMF). This increase was matched by an increase in IMF financial assets resulting in no change to net debt.

Table 9 - Cash proceeds from net bond issuance
Year ended 30 June
$ million
Actual
2005
Actual
2006
Actual
2007
Actual
2008
Actual
2009
Actual
2010
Forecast
Original
Budget
Forecast
Estimated
Actuals
Domestic bonds (market) 2,146 2,375 2,294 1,757 5,775 12,424 8,919 12,869
Repayment of domestic bonds (market) (2,797) (2,574) (2,777) (2,750) (4,197) (4,247) (4,197)
Net increase/(decrease) in market domestic bonds (651) (199) (483) 1,757 3,025 8,227 4,672 8,672
Domestic bonds (non-market) 459 740 570 130 541 799 948 805
Repayment of domestic bonds (non-market) (338) (375) (421) (515) (656) (672) (656)
Net increase/(decrease) in non-market domestic bonds 121 365 149 130 26 143 276 149
Net total bond issuance/(repayment) (530) 166 (334) 1,887 3,051 8,370 4,948 8,821

Notes

  • [2]Net debt is defined as core Crown net debt excluding the NZS Fund and advances.
  • [3]Gross debt is defined as gross sovereign-issued debt excluding Reserve Bank settlement cash and Reserve Bank bills.

 

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