Note 28: Capital Objectives and Fiscal Policy
The Government's fiscal policy is pursued in accordance with the principles of responsible fiscal management set out in the Public Finance Act 1989:
- reducing total debt to prudent levels so as to provide a buffer against factors that may impact adversely on the level of total debt in the future by ensuring that, until those levels have been achieved, total operating expenses in each financial year are less than total operating revenues in the same financial year
- once prudent levels of total debt have been achieved, maintaining those levels by ensuring that, on average, over a reasonable period of time, total operating expenses do not exceed total operating revenues
- achieving and maintaining levels of total net worth that provide a buffer against factors that may impact adversely on total net worth in the future
- managing prudently the fiscal risks facing the Government, and
- pursuing policies that are consistent with a reasonable degree of predictability about the level and stability of tax rates for future years.
Consistent with these principles, the Government seeks to strengthen its fiscal position to help manage future spending demands, particularly those arising from an ageing population by maintaining debt at prudent levels and accumulating assets through the New Zealand Superannuation fund.
The Government's fiscal strategy can be expressed through its long term objectives and short term intentions for fiscal policy.
Further information on the Government's Fiscal strategy can be found in the Fiscal Strategy Reports published with the Government's budget.
| Long-term fiscal objectives | To achieve the objectives, the Government's high-level focus is on: |
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Operating balance Operating surpluses on average over the economic cycle sufficient to meet the requirements for contributions to the NZS Fund and ensure consistency with the debt objective. |
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Revenue Ensure sufficient revenue to meet the operating balance objective. |
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Expenses Ensure expenses are consistent with the operating balance objective. |
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Debt Manage total debt at prudent levels. Gross sovereign-issued debt broadly stable at around 20% of GDP over the next 10 years. |
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Net worth Increase net worth consistent with the operating balance objective. |
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| Fiscal Strategy Report 2007 | Fiscal Strategy Report 2008 | Fiscal Position 2008 |
|---|---|---|
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Operating balance Based on operating amounts for the 2007 Budget, and indicative amounts for the 2008 and 2009 Budgets, the OBEGAL excluding NZS Fund revenue is forecast to be 3.4% of GDP in 2007/08, decreasing to 1.7% of GDP by 2010/11. This remains consistent with the long-term objective for the operating balance. |
Operating balance Based on operating amounts for the 2008 Budget, and indicative amounts for the 2009 and 2010 Budgets, the OBEGAL excluding NZS Fund retained revenue is forecast to be 0.7% of GDP in 2008/09, decreasing to 0.1% of GDP by 2011/12. This remains consistent with the long-term objective for the operating balance. |
Operating balance For the year ended 30 June 2008 the OBEGAL excluding NZS Fund retained revenue was 3.1% of GDP (30 June 2007: 3.7%). |
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Debt Total debt (including Reserve Bank settlement cash) is forecast to be 25.3% of GDP in 2010/11.Gross sovereign-issued debt including net settlement cash is forecast to be 21.8% of GDP in 2010/11. Excluding net settlement cash, gross sovereign-issued debt is forecast to be 18.8% of GDP in 2010/11.The Government will set forecast new operating and capital spending amounts over the next three years that are consistent with the long-term objective for debt. |
Debt Total debt (including Reserve Bank Settlement Cash) is forecast to be 25.9% of GDP in 2011/12. Gross sovereign-issued debt including Settlement Cash is forecast to be 19.6% of GDP in 2011/12. Excluding Settlement Cash, gross sovereign-issued debt is forecast to be 16.8% of GDP in 2011/12. The Government will set forecast new operating and capital spending amounts over the next three years that are consistent with the long-term objective for debt. |
Debt Total debt (including Reserve Bank Settlement Cash) was 25.6% of GDP as at 30 June 2008 (30 June 2007: 24.8%). Gross sovereign-issued debt including Settlement was 21.0% of GDP as at 30 June 2008 (30 June 2007: 21.8%). Excluding Settlement Cash, gross sovereign-issued debt was 17.4% of GDP as at 30 June 2008 (30 June 2007: 18.2%). |
Expenses Total Crown expenses are forecast to be 42.5% of GDP in 2010/11. Core Crown expenses are forecast to average 32.7% over the forecast period and be 33.1% of GDP in 2010/11. This assumes new operating expense amounts of $1.97 billion for the 2007 Budget, $2.0 billion for the 2008 Budget and $2.0 billion for the 2009 Budget (GST exclusive). |
Expenses Total Crown expenses are forecast to be 42.4% of GDP in 2011/12. Core Crown expenses are forecast to average 32.9% over the forecast period and be 33.0% of GDP in 2011/12. This assumes new operating expense amounts of $1.75 billion per annum for the 2009 Budget, $1.79 billion per annum for the 2010 Budget and $1.82 billion per annum for the 2011 Budget (GST exclusive). |
Expenses Total Crown expenses are 42.1% of GDP for the year ended 30 June 2008 (30 June 2007: 40.8%). Core Crown expenses were 31.7% GDP for the year ended 30 June 2008 (30 June 2007: 32.0%). |
Revenues Total Crown revenues are forecast to be 44.3% of GDP in 2010/11. Within this, core Crown revenues are forecast to be 34.1% of GDP in 2010/11.This assumes new revenue initiatives in the 2008 Budget resulting in a $1.13 billion reduction in revenue from 2008/09.The Government will set revenue plans over the next three years that ensure progress is made towards the long-term revenue objective. |
Revenues Total Crown revenues are forecast to be 42.5% of GDP in 2011/12. Within this, core Crown revenues are forecast to be 32.7% of GDP in 2011/12. Budget 2008 introduces personal tax reductions. As a result, core Crown tax-to-GDP is forecast to decline from 31.5% in 2007/08 to 29.6% in 2011/12. |
Revenues Total Crown revenues were 45.3% of GDP for the year ended 30 June 2008 (30 June 2007: 44.2%). Within this, core Crown revenues were 34.3 % of GDP for the year ended 30 June 2008 (30 June 2007: 34.5%). |
Net worth Total Crown net worth is forecast to be 54.4% of GDP in 2006/07, rising to 57.3% of GDP in 2010/11. Excluding NZS Fund assets total Crown net worth is forecast to be 43.5% of GDP in 2010/11. Core Crown net worth is forecast to be 33% of GDP in 2010/11. |
Net worth Total Crown net worth is forecast to be 52.5% of GDP in 2011/12. Core Crown net worth is forecast to be 28.4% of GDP in 2011/12. |
Net worth Total Crown net worth, defined as the residual between assets and liabilities, was 58.6% of GDP as at 30 June 2008 (30 June 2007: 57.4%). Core Crown net worth, ie, the net of assets and liabilities of the Crown, departments, Offices of Parliament, the Reserve Bank and the New Zealand Superannuation Fund, was 31.6% of GDP as at 30 June 2008 (30 June 2007: 30.1%). |
