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Monthly Economic Indicators

New Zealand Key Economic Data

28 September 2017

Quarterly Indicators

Quarterly Indicators
    2015Q4 2016Q1 2016Q2 2016Q3 2016Q4 2017Q1 2017Q2

Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

Real production GDP qtr % chg[1] 1.1 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.4 0.6 0.8
ann ave % chg 2.5 2.4 2.7 3.0 3.0 2.9 2.7
Real private consumption qtr % chg[1] 1.4 0.3 2.1 1.4 0.4 1.2 0.9
ann ave % chg 2.9 2.8 3.2 4.0 4.3 4.8 4.7
Real public consumption qtr % chg[1] 0.0 1.1 0.1 1.2 1.0 1.0 1.1
ann ave % chg 2.6 2.6 1.8 1.8 2.2 2.4 3.4
Real residential investment qtr % chg[1] 1.3 4.6 5.0 0.7 0.2 -1.3 -1.0
ann ave % chg 2.0 2.8 6.3 9.0 11.1 10.3 6.3
Real non-residential investment qtr % chg[1] -2.3 1.3 1.5 0.3 2.1 1.8 -0.4
ann ave % chg 2.2 2.4 2.4 1.7 3.2 3.6 3.8
Export volumes qtr % chg[1] 0.1 -0.1 2.1 -0.7 -3.1 0.4 5.2
ann ave % chg 6.9 5.6 4.8 3.0 1.6 0.7 -0.1
Import volumes qtr % chg[1] 0.5 0.5 2.4 1.8 1.7 1.0 0.6
ann ave % chg 3.7 2.0 1.0 1.8 3.4 5.1 6.0
Nominal GDP - expenditure basis ann ave % chg 3.4 4.1 4.2 4.3 5.3 5.6 5.9
Real GDP per capita ann ave % chg 0.6 0.4 0.6 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.6
Real Gross National Disposable Income ann ave % chg 1.5 2.1 2.7 3.1 4.1 3.9 4.0

External Trade

Current account balance (annual) NZ$ millions -7,959 -7,252 -6,827 -7,139 -6,554 -7,730 -7,490
% of GDP -3.2 -2.9 -2.7 -2.8 -2.5 -2.9 -3
Investment income balance (annual) NZ$ millions -8,956 -8,334 -7,816 -7,611 -7,133 -7,700 -7,789
Merchandise terms of trade qtr % chg -2.0 4.2 -2.0 -1.2 5.8 3.9 1.6
ann % chg -3.2 -0.4 -3.8 -1.2 6.7 6.4 10.3

Prices

CPI inflation qtr % chg -0.5 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.4 1.0 0.0
ann % chg 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.4 1.3 2.2 1.7
Tradable inflation ann % chg -2.1 -1.2 -1.5 -2.1 -0.1 1.6 0.9
Non-tradable inflation ann % chg 1.8 1.6 1.8 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.4
GDP deflator ann % chg 0.3 0.9 0.1 1.4 4.2 3.9 2.8
Consumption deflator ann % chg 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.1 0.7 1.6 1.2

Labour Market

Employment (HLFS) qtr % chg[1] 1.0 1.2 2.4 1.4 0.7 1.1 -0.1
ann % chg[1] 1.4 2.0 4.5 6.1 5.8 5.7 3.1
Unemployment rate %[1] 4.9 5.2 5.1 4.9 5.2 4.9 4.8
Participation rate %[1] 68.2 68.8 69.7 70.1 70.5 70.6 70.0
LCI salary & wage rates - total (adjusted)[5] qtr % chg 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4
ann % chg 1.5 1.6 1.5 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.7
QES average hourly earnings - total[5] qtr % chg 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.5 -0.1 0.5 0.6
ann % chg 2.1 2.4 2.1 1.7 1.3 1.5 1.6
Labour productivity[6] ann ave % chg 0.5 0.8 -0.2 -1.2 -2.2 -3.4 -2.3

Retail Sales

Core retail sales volume qtr % chg[1] 1.6 0.9 2.3 0.3 0.7 1.5 2.1
ann % chg 5.2 4.8 6.4 5.0 3.8 3.8 4.7
Total retail sales volume qtr % chg[1] 1.4 0.8 2.0 0.8 0.9 1.6 2
ann % chg 5.3 4.9 6.0 5.1 3.9 4.6 5.4

Confidence Indicators/Surveys

               
WMM - consumer confidence[3] Index 111 110 106 108 113 112 113
QSBO - general business situation[4] net % 14.7 1.7 18.6 25.7 28.3 17.1 17.8
QSBO - own activity outlook[4] net % 21.6 3.8 16.8 39.2 27.0 20.6 18.4

Monthly Indicators

Monthly Indicators
    2017M03 2017M4 2017M05 2017M06 2017M07 2017M08 2017M09

External Sector

Merchandise trade - exports mth % chg[1] -3.8 17.5 -6.9 3.4 6.7 -10.3 ...
ann % chg[1] 9.3 8.8 7.6 10.6 16.7 9.0 ...
Merchandise trade - imports mth % chg[1] -3.4 5.7 0.9 -3.2 1.6 -2.9 ...
ann % chg[1] 7.9 4.6 14.9 7.6 4.9 6.5 ...
Merchandise trade balance (12 month total) NZ$ million -3709 -3512 -3793 -3655 -3205 -3200 ...
Visitor arrivals number[1] 307,980 315,630 310,510 325,900 308,520 307,460 ...
Visitor departures number[1] 306,030 314,870 315,090 308,860 325,050 300,870 ...

Housing

Dwelling consents - residential mth % chg[1] -2.6 -8.3 6.5 -1.3 -0.7 ... ...
ann % chg[1] 20.0 -10.8 10.9 -7.0 -1.7 ... ...

Private Consumption

Electronic card transactions - total retail mth % chg[1] -0.3 1.0 -0.4 -0.1 -0.6 -0.2 ...
ann % chg 5.6 4.5 5.2 4.5 2.0 4.4 ...
New car registrations mth % chg[1] 3.5 -2.7 3.5 -2.8 -2.3 4.1 ...
ann % chg 16.5 3.0 13.7 11.1 6.2 5.5 ...

Migration

Permanent & long-term arrivals number[1] 10,800 10,920 11,120 11,470 11,090 10,650 ...
Permanent & long-term departures number[1] 4,670 5,130 5,200 5,160 5,330 5,160 ...
Net PLT migration (12 month total) number 71,932 71,885 71,964 72,305 72,402 72,072 ...

Commodity Prices

Brent oil price US$/Barrel 51.59 52.31 50.33 46.37 48.48 51.70 55.73
WTI oil price US$/Barrel 49.48 51.08 48.51 45.19 46.61 48.05 49.56
ANZ NZ commodity price index mth % chg 3.4 0.5 4.0 -1.6 -2.1 0.2 ...
ann % chg 16.5 20.4 22.3 20.1 17.8 15.8 ...
ANZ world commodity price index mth % chg 0.4 -0.2 3.2 2.1 -0.8 -0.9 ...
ann % chg 23.0 23.7 26.3 24.6 21.1 16.3 ...

Financial Markets

NZD/USD $[2] 0.7009 0.6975 0.6937 0.7226 0.7350 0.7311 0.7249
NZD/AUD $[2] 0.9197 0.9259 0.9334 0.9560 0.9434 0.9233 0.9077
Trade weighted index (TWI) June 1979 = 100[2] 76.54 76.01 75.50 77.92 78.41 77.08 75.80
Official cash rate (OCR) % 1.75 1.75 1.75 1.75 1.75 1.75 1.75
90 day bank bill rate %[2] 1.98 1.97 1.98 1.95 1.96 1.95 1.95
10 year govt bond rate %[2] 3.28 3.05 2.93 2.77 2.97 2.88 2.91

Confidence Indicators/Surveys

ANZ Bank - business confidence net % 11.3 11.0 14.9 24.8 19.4 18.3 0.0
ANZ Bank - activity outlook net % 38.8 37.7 38.3 42.8 40.3 38.2 29.6
ANZ-Roy Morgan - consumer confidence net % 125.2 121.7 123.9 127.8 125.4 126.2 129.9
Performance of Manufacturing Index Index 58.0 56.7 58.1 56.0 55.5 57.9 ...
Performance of Services Index Index 58.7 53.0 58.5 58.3 56.0 57.3 ...

 

Abbreviations

qtr % chg
quarterly percent change
mth % chg
monthly percent change
ann % chg
annual percent change
ann ave % chg
annual average percent change

Notes

  • [1] Seasonally adjusted
  • [2] Average (11am)
  • [3] Westpac McDermott Miller
  • [4] Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion
  • [5] Ordinary time
  • [6] Production GDP divided by HLFS hours worked

Sources: Statistics New Zealand, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, NZIER, ANZ, Haver, Westpac McDermott Miller, ANZ-Roy Morgan, REINZ, BNZ-Business NZ

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