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Monthly Economic Indicators

New Zealand Key Economic Data

30 September 2015

Quarterly Indicators

Quarterly Indicators
    2014Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014Q4 2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3

Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

Real production GDP qtr % chg[1] 1.1 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.2 0.4 ...
ann ave % chg 2.5 2.9 3.0 3.3 3.2 3.0 ...
Real private consumption qtr % chg[1] 0.6 0.7 1.4 0.5 0.2 0.9 ...
ann ave % chg 3.1 3.0 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.3 ...
Real public consumption qtr % chg[1] 0.9 0.5 0.7 0.2 1.2 1.0 ...
ann ave % chg 2.7 3.2 3.2 3.0 2.8 2.7 ...
Real residential investment qtr % chg[1] 10.1 0.3 -0.4 5.0 0.6 -0.1 ...
ann ave % chg 16.6 18.0 16.0 16.2 12.3 9.0 ...
Real non-residential investment qtr % chg[1] 0.7 1.6 4.0 -1.5 -2.7 2.2 ...
ann ave % chg 8.4 8.7 7.4 6.2 4.5 3.5 ...
Export volumes qtr % chg[1] 1.9 -1.6 -0.3 6.7 1.6 -1.1 ...
ann ave % chg 0.0 0.2 1.4 3.0 4.2 5.5 ...
Import volumes qtr % chg[1] 2.1 2.9 0.3 2.6 0.7 2.3 ...
ann ave % chg 8.1 9.0 8.0 7.9 7.4 6.6 ...
Nominal GDP - expenditure basis ann ave % chg 6.8 8.1 7.4 5.2 3.5 2.8 ...
Real GDP per capita ann ave % chg 1.6 1.7 1.6 1.8 1.6 1.2 ...
Real Gross National Disposable Income ann ave % chg 6.0 6.5 6.1 4.7 3.1 1.9 ...

External Trade

Current account balance (annual) NZ$ millions -5,875 -5,655 -5,913 -7,464 -8,064 -8,301 ...
% of GDP -2.6 -2.4 -2.5 -3.1 -3.4 -3.5 ...
Investment income balance (annual) NZ$ millions -8,937 -9,286 -9,373 -9,449 -9,217 -9,040 ...
Merchandise terms of trade qtr % chg 1.8 0.1 -4.5 -2.4 1.2 1.3 ...
ann % chg 17.3 12.2 -0.3 -5.0 -5.6 -4.4 ...

Prices

CPI inflation qtr % chg 0.3 0.3 0.3 -0.2 -0.2 0.4 ...
ann % chg 1.5 1.6 1.0 0.8 0.3 0.4 ...
Tradable inflation ann % chg -0.6 0.1 -1.0 -1.3 -2.4 -1.8 ...
Non-tradable inflation ann % chg 3.0 2.7 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.1 ...
GDP deflator ann % chg 5.6 4.5 1.2 -2.1 -0.7 1.3 ...
Consumption deflator ann % chg 0.9 1.0 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.5 ...

Labour Market

Employment (HLFS) qtr % chg[1] 1.0 0.5 0.8 1.2 0.7 0.3 ...
ann % chg[1] 3.7 3.6 3.2 3.5 3.2 3.0 ...
Unemployment rate %[1] 6.0 5.7 5.5 5.7 5.8 5.9 ...
Participation rate %[1] 68.9 68.7 68.8 69.4 69.5 69.3 ...
LCI salary & wage rates - total (adjusted)[5] qtr % chg 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.5 ...
ann % chg 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.6 ...
QES average hourly earnings - total[5] qtr % chg 0.5 0.2 1.4 0.5 0.0 0.8 ...
ann % chg 2.5 2.5 2.3 2.6 2.1 2.8 ...
Labour productivity[6] ann ave % chg -0.9 -0.8 -0.7 -0.3 0.2 0.4 ...

Retail Sales

Core retail sales volume qtr % chg[1] 0.8 1.5 1.4 2.1 2.5 0.1 ...
ann % chg 3.5 3.0 4.5 6.0 7.5 6.2 ...
Total retail sales volume qtr % chg[1] 0.8 1.4 1.4 2.1 2.3 0.1 ...
ann % chg 3.6 3.6 4.7 5.9 7.4 5.9 ...

Confidence Indicators/Surveys

               
WMM - consumer confidence[3] Index 122 121 117 115 117 113 106
QSBO - general business situation[4] net % 51.7 31.7 19.0 23.6 23.3 5.1 ...
QSBO - own activity outlook[4] net % 33.2 29.7 33.9 26.7 25.0 9.3 ...

Monthly Indicators

Monthly Indicators
    2015M03 2015M04 2015M05 2015M06 2015M07 2015M08 2015M09

External Sector

Merchandise trade - exports mth % chg[1] 1.4 -3.2 0.3 5.8 5.5 2.1 ...
ann % chg[1] -2.5 -6.2 -4.8 -0.7 13.3 5.6 ...
Merchandise trade - imports mth % chg[1] 6.3 -2.4 3.8 -5.5 8.5 4.4 ...
ann % chg[1] 2.8 0.3 -7.5 10.1 5.9 19.2 ...
Merchandise trade balance (12 month total) NZ$ million -2372 -2655 -2553 -2977 -2761 -3331 ...
Visitor arrivals number[1] 255,210 258,800 258,890 257,740 250,860 251,370 ...
Visitor departures number[1] 269,270 259,350 267,590 265,500 258,940 259,380 ...

Housing

Dwelling consents - residential mth % chg[1] 10.6 -1.6 0.7 -3.4 20.3 -4.9 ...
ann % chg[1] 13.6 1.4 2.2 2.0 23.8 11.3 ...
House sales - dwellings mth % chg[1] 4.8 0.5 -1.0 5.6 8.0 0.7 ...
ann % chg[1] 20.3 27.6 21.6 29.1 37.8 41.7 ...
REINZ - house price index mth % chg 1.1 1.3 2.0 2.3 1.1 1.9 ...
ann % chg 8.5 9.3 11.8 14.8 14.9 17.3 ...

Private Consumption

Electronic card transactions - total retail mth % chg[1] 0.7 -0.6 1.3 0.5 0.4 0.4 ...
ann % chg 3.7 3.9 3.2 5.0 5.6 4.2 ...
New car registrations mth % chg[1] 2.5 -1.4 -0.2 5.4 0.6 -2.0 ...
ann % chg 11.8 11.2 6.8 11.2 10.7 7.8 ...

Migration

Permanent & long-term arrivals number[1] 9,890 9,640 9,950 9,880 10,590 10,310 ...
Permanent & long-term departures number[1] 4,890 4,840 4,830 4,970 4,860 4,840 ...
Net PLT migration (12 month total) number 56,275 56,813 57,822 58,259 59,639 60,290 ...

Commodity Prices

Brent oil price US$/Barrel 55.89 59.52 64.08 61.48 56.56 46.52 47.64
WTI oil price US$/Barrel 47.82 54.45 59.27 59.82 50.91 42.87 45.48
ANZ NZ commodity price index mth % chg 1.5 -9.0 -2.9 3.0 -0.6 -3.9 ...
ann % chg -2.5 -6.9 -8.0 -4.2 -1.3 -4.6 ...
ANZ world commodity price index mth % chg 4.6 -7.4 -4.8 -3.1 -5.5 -5.2 ...
ann % chg -11.9 -15.3 -18.0 -19.7 -22.1 -23.5 ...

Financial Markets

NZD/USD $[2] 0.7473 0.7583 0.7394 0.699 0.6652 0.6550 0.6334
NZD/AUD $[2] 0.9658 0.9814 0.9368 0.9055 0.8963 0.8977 0.8975
Trade weighted index (TWI) June 1979 = 100[2] 78.27 79.17 76.49 72.97 70.41 70.32 68.77
Official cash rate (OCR) % 3.50 3.50 3.50 3.25 3.00 3.00 2.75
90 day bank bill rate %[2] 3.63 3.63 3.53 3.33 3.13 2.95 2.85
10 year govt bond rate %[2] 3.30 3.25 3.66 3.77 3.47 3.29 3.30

Confidence Indicators/Surveys

ANZ Bank - business confidence net % 35.8 30.2 15.7 -2.3 -15.3 -29.1 -18.9
ANZ Bank - activity outlook net % 42.2 41.3 32.6 23.6 19.0 12.2 16.7
ANZ-Roy Morgan - consumer confidence net % 124.6 128.8 123.9 119.9 113.9 109.8 110.8
Performance of Manufacturing Index Index 54.6 52.0 51.9 55.2 53.7 55.0 ...
Performance of Services Index Index 57.6 56.7 57.9 58.1 56.6 58.2 ...

 

Abbreviations

qtr % chg
quarterly percent change
mth % chg
monthly percent change
ann % chg
annual percent change
ann ave % chg
annual average percent change

Notes

  • [1] Seasonally adjusted
  • [2] Average (11am)
  • [3] Westpac McDermott Miller
  • [4] Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion
  • [5] Ordinary time
  • [6] Production GDP divided by HLFS hours worked

Sources: Statistics New Zealand, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, NZIER, ANZ, Haver, Westpac McDermott Miller, ANZ-Roy Morgan, REINZ, BNZ-Business NZ

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