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Monthly Economic Indicators

New Zealand Key Economic Data

30 November 2016

Quarterly Indicators

Quarterly Indicators
    2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 2016Q1 2016Q2 2016Q3

Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

Real production GDP qtr % chg[1] 0.2 0.4 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 ...
ann ave % chg 3.6 3.3 2.9 2.5 2.5 2.8 ...
Real private consumption qtr % chg[1] 0.6 0.3 0.7 0.9 0.5 1.9 ...
ann ave % chg 2.6 2.7 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.7 ...
Real public consumption qtr % chg[1] 0.8 0.7 0.3 -0.2 0.6 1.0 ...
ann ave % chg 2.3 2.1 2.0 2.0 1.8 1.7 ...
Real residential investment qtr % chg[1] 0.3 0.4 1.5 1.5 4.9 6.0 ...
ann ave % chg 11.5 8.6 7.8 5.9 7.2 10.3 ...
Real non-residential investment qtr % chg[1] -2.5 1.3 2.6 -2.8 1.8 1.7 ...
ann ave % chg 9.0 7.5 4.9 1.9 1.4 1.3 ...
Export volumes qtr % chg[1] 1.8 0.1 2.0 -0.1 -0.4 4.0 ...
ann ave % chg 4.3 5.9 7.6 6.8 5.5 4.9 ...
Import volumes qtr % chg[1] 0.8 1.1 -2.3 0.8 0.7 2.6 ...
ann ave % chg 7.4 6.6 5.6 3.6 2.1 1.2 ...
Nominal GDP - expenditure basis ann ave % chg 3.6 2.8 2.8 3.2 3.8 4.2 ...
Real GDP per capita ann ave % chg 1.9 1.5 1.1 0.6 0.5 0.7 ...
Real Gross National Disposable Income ann ave % chg 3.3 2.1 1.3 1.4 2.0 2.6 ...

External Trade

Current account balance (annual) NZ$ millions -8,469 -8,752 -8,529 -8,321 -7,821 -7,384 ...
% of GDP -3.5 -3.6 -3.5 -3.4 -3.1 -2.9 ...
Investment income balance (annual) NZ$ millions -9,566 -9,499 -9,581 -9,207 -8,752 -8,374 ...
Merchandise terms of trade qtr % chg 1.2 1.5 -3.8 -2.0 4.2 -2.1 ...
ann % chg -5.6 -4.2 -3.6 -3.2 -0.4 -3.9 ...

Prices

CPI inflation qtr % chg -0.2 0.4 0.3 -0.5 0.2 0.4 0.4
ann % chg 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.4
Tradable inflation ann % chg -2.4 -1.8 -1.2 -2.1 -1.2 -1.5 -2.1
Non-tradable inflation ann % chg 2.4 2.1 1.5 1.8 1.6 1.8 2.4
GDP deflator ann % chg -0.8 0.5 0.8 0.4 1.3 1.3 ...
Consumption deflator ann % chg 0.5 0.6 1.1 0.7 0.8 0.7 ...

Labour Market

Employment (HLFS) qtr % chg[1] 0.6 0.0 -0.2 0.9 1.4 2.4 1.4
ann % chg[1] 3.2 2.9 1.5 1.3 2.0 4.5 6.1
Unemployment rate %[1] 5.4 5.5 5.5 5.0 5.2 5.0 4.9
Participation rate %[1] 69.3 68.9 68.4 68.2 68.8 69.7 70.1
LCI salary & wage rates - total (adjusted)[5] qtr % chg 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5
ann % chg 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.6 1.5 1.7
QES average hourly earnings - total[5] qtr % chg 0.0 0.8 1.0 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.5
ann % chg 2.1 2.8 2.3 2.1 2.4 2.1 1.7
Labour productivity[6] ann ave % chg 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.9 -0.1 ...

Retail Sales

Core retail sales volume qtr % chg[1] 2.2 -0.1 1.4 1.2 1.1 2.5 0.3
ann % chg 7.2 5.8 5.2 5.2 4.8 6.4 5.1
Total retail sales volume qtr % chg[1] 2.1 0.0 1.6 1.1 0.9 2.2 0.9
ann % chg 7.1 5.5 5.7 5.3 4.9 6.0 5.1

Confidence Indicators/Surveys

               
WMM - consumer confidence[3] Index 117 113 106 111 110 106 108
QSBO - general business situation[4] net % 23.3 5.1 -14.5 14.7 1.7 18.6 25.7
QSBO - own activity outlook[4] net % 25.0 9.3 21.7 21.6 3.8 16.8 39.2

Monthly Indicators

Monthly Indicators
    2016M05 2016M06 2016M07 2016M08 2016M09 2016M10 2016M11

External Sector

Merchandise trade - exports mth % chg[1] -1.3 -1.1 2.1 -7.9 0.7 9.3 ...
ann % chg[1] 4.7 2.3 -4.9 -8.7 -5.8 2.2 ...
Merchandise trade - imports mth % chg[1] -1.4 -1.1 4.2 -3.4 5.4 2.1 ...
ann % chg[1] 5.7 -4.5 -11.9 -3.7 0.9 0.6 ...
Merchandise trade balance (12 month total) NZ$ million -3,624 -3,335 -2,956 -3,101 -3,356 -3,297 ...
Visitor arrivals number[1] 284,890 282,960 291,490 286,350 296,710 ... ...
Visitor departures number[1] 294,860 286,400 297,740 284,390 291,360 ... ...

Housing

Dwelling consents - residential mth % chg[1] -0.7 20.4 -8.7 -1.5 0.2 ... ...
ann % chg[1] 16.1 34.8 -0.5 23.7 13.7 ... ...
House sales - dwellings mth % chg[1] -3.6 -2.3 -8.8 6.4 -5.5 -9.1 ...
ann % chg[1] 13.6 5.9 -10.1 -3.1 -9.5 -14.2 ...
REINZ - house price index mth % chg 2.0 1.6 2.6 -2.0 1.1 0.1 ...
ann % chg 14.7 14.2 16.3 11.7 9.7 14.4 ...

Private Consumption

Electronic card transactions - total retail mth % chg[1] -0.2 1.2 0.2 -1.2 2.0 0.6 ...
ann % chg 3.3 6.8 5.8 3.2 6.1 4.2 ...
New car registrations mth % chg[1] -4.6 -0.6 0.2 8.4 -1.0 3.3 ...
ann % chg 4.2 -1.2 -1.9 10.5 8.6 13.1 ...

Migration

Permanent & long-term arrivals number[1] 10,220 10,250 10,450 10,350 10,960 ...
Permanent & long-term departures number[1] 4,670 4,540 4,810 4,690 4,630 ...
Net PLT migration (12 month total) number 68,432 69,090 69,015 69,119 69,954 70,282 ...

Commodity Prices

Brent oil price US$/Barrel 46.74 48.25 44.95 45.84 46.57 49.52 44.47
WTI oil price US$/Barrel 46.76 48.80 44.69 44.76 45.20 49.81 45.58
ANZ NZ commodity price index mth % chg 2.5 0.1 -0.3 1.9 3.9 1.3 ...
ann % chg -3.5 -6.1 -5.8 -0.5 -5.0 -5.3 ...
ANZ world commodity price index mth % chg 1.0 3.5 2.1 3.2 5.1 0.7 ...
ann % chg -11.7 -5.6 1.9 11.1 10.6 4.0 ...

Financial Markets

NZD/USD $[2] 0.6804 0.7034 0.7123 0.7229 0.7309 0.7159 0.7153
NZD/AUD $[2] 0.9290 0.9502 0.9472 0.9481 0.9634 0.9395 0.9489
Trade weighted index (TWI) June 1979 = 100[2] 72.86 75.23 76.30 76.77 77.84 76.87 77.93
Official cash rate (OCR) % 2.25 2.25 2.25 2.00 2.00 2.00 1.75
90 day bank bill rate %[2] 2.38 2.37 2.37 2.24 2.23 2.15 2.07
10 year govt bond rate %[2] 2.68 2.51 2.27 2.20 2.40 2.54 2.99

Confidence Indicators/Surveys

ANZ Bank - business confidence net % 11.3 20.2 16.0 15.5 27.9 24.5 20.5
ANZ Bank - activity outlook net % 30.4 35.1 31.4 33.7 42.4 38.4 37.6
ANZ-Roy Morgan - consumer confidence net % 116.2 118.9 118.2 117.7 121.0 122.9 127.2
Performance of Manufacturing Index Index 57.1 57.6 55.6 55.1 57.5 55.2 ...
Performance of Services Index Index 56.9 56.5 54.4 57.8 54.2 56.3 ...

 

Abbreviations

qtr % chg
quarterly percent change
mth % chg
monthly percent change
ann % chg
annual percent change
ann ave % chg
annual average percent change

Notes

  • [1] Seasonally adjusted
  • [2] Average (11am)
  • [3] Westpac McDermott Miller
  • [4] Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion
  • [5] Ordinary time
  • [6] Production GDP divided by HLFS hours worked

Sources: Statistics New Zealand, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, NZIER, ANZ, Haver, Westpac McDermott Miller, ANZ-Roy Morgan, REINZ, BNZ-Business NZ

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