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Monthly Economic Indicators

New Zealand Key Economic Data

7 December 2015

Quarterly Indicators

Quarterly Indicators
    2014Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014Q4 2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3

Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

Real production GDP qtr % chg[1] 1.1 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.2 0.4 ...
ann ave % chg 2.5 2.9 3.0 3.3 3.2 3.0 ...
Real private consumption qtr % chg[1] 0.6 0.7 1.4 0.5 0.2 0.9 ...
ann ave % chg 3.1 3.0 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.3 ...
Real public consumption qtr % chg[1] 0.9 0.5 0.7 0.2 1.2 1.0 ...
ann ave % chg 2.7 3.2 3.2 3.0 2.8 2.7 ...
Real residential investment qtr % chg[1] 10.1 0.3 -0.4 5.0 0.6 -0.1 ...
ann ave % chg 16.6 18.0 16.0 16.2 12.3 9.0 ...
Real non-residential investment qtr % chg[1] 0.7 1.6 4.0 -1.5 -2.7 2.2 ...
ann ave % chg 8.4 8.7 7.4 6.2 4.5 3.5 ...
Export volumes qtr % chg[1] 1.9 -1.6 -0.3 6.7 1.6 -1.1 ...
ann ave % chg 0.0 0.2 1.4 3.0 4.2 5.5 ...
Import volumes qtr % chg[1] 2.1 2.9 0.3 2.6 0.7 2.3 ...
ann ave % chg 8.1 9.0 8.0 7.9 7.4 6.6 ...
Nominal GDP - expenditure basis ann ave % chg 6.8 8.1 7.4 5.2 3.5 2.8 ...
Real GDP per capita ann ave % chg 1.6 1.7 1.6 1.8 1.6 1.2 ...
Real Gross National Disposable Income ann ave % chg 6.0 6.5 6.1 4.7 3.1 1.9 ...

External Trade

Current account balance (annual) NZ$ millions -5,875 -5,655 -5,913 -7,464 -8,064 -8,301 ...
% of GDP -2.6 -2.4 -2.5 -3.1 -3.4 -3.5 ...
Investment income balance (annual) NZ$ millions -8,937 -9,286 -9,373 -9,449 -9,217 -9,040 ...
Merchandise terms of trade qtr % chg 1.8 0.1 -4.5 -2.4 1.2 1.5 -3.7
ann % chg 17.3 12.2 -0.3 -5.0 -5.6 -4.2 -3.4

Prices

CPI inflation qtr % chg 0.3 0.3 0.3 -0.2 -0.2 0.4 0.3
ann % chg 1.5 1.6 1.0 0.8 0.3 0.4 0.4
Tradable inflation ann % chg -0.6 0.1 -1.0 -1.3 -2.4 -1.8 -1.2
Non-tradable inflation ann % chg 3.0 2.7 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.1 1.5
GDP deflator ann % chg 5.6 4.5 1.2 -2.1 -0.7 1.3 ...
Consumption deflator ann % chg 0.9 1.0 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.5 ...

Labour Market

Employment (HLFS) qtr % chg[1] 1.0 0.4 1.0 1.1 0.6 0.1 -0.4
ann % chg[1] 3.7 3.6 3.2 3.6 3.2 3.0 1.5
Unemployment rate %[1] 6.0 5.7 5.6 5.7 5.8 5.9 6.0
Participation rate %[1] 68.9 68.6 68.8 69.4 69.5 69.3 68.6
LCI salary & wage rates - total (adjusted)[5] qtr % chg 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.5 0.4
ann % chg 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.6
QES average hourly earnings - total[5] qtr % chg 0.5 0.2 1.4 0.5 0.0 0.8 1
ann % chg 2.5 2.5 2.3 2.6 2.1 2.8 2.3
Labour productivity[6] ann ave % chg -0.9 -0.8 -0.7 -0.3 0.2 0.4 ...

Retail Sales

Core retail sales volume qtr % chg[1] 0.7 1.5 1.6 1.9 2.2 0.0 1.0
ann % chg 3.5 3.0 4.5 6.0 7.2 5.8 5.2
Total retail sales volume qtr % chg[1] 0.7 1.5 1.5 1.9 2.0 0.1 1.6
ann % chg 3.6 3.6 4.7 5.9 7.1 5.5 5.7

Confidence Indicators/Surveys

               
WMM - consumer confidence[3] Index 122 121 117 115 117 113 106
QSBO - general business situation[4] net % 51.7 31.7 19.0 23.6 23.3 5.1 -14.5
QSBO - own activity outlook[4] net % 33.2 29.7 33.9 26.7 25.0 9.3 21.7

Monthly Indicators

Monthly Indicators
    2015M05 2015M06 2015M07 2015M08 2015M09 2015M10 2015M11

External Sector

Merchandise trade - exports mth % chg[1] 0.2 5.8 5.5 2.7 -7.0 0.2 ...
ann % chg[1] -4.8 -0.6 13.1 5.1 1.7 -4.5 ...
Merchandise trade - imports mth % chg[1] 3.5 -5.6 7.3 4.8 -9.1 -0.6 ...
ann % chg[1] -7.5 10.0 5.9 20.1 -3.2 -2.2 ...
Merchandise trade balance (12 month total) NZ$ million -2553 -2975 -2762 -3384 -3165 -3237 ...
Visitor arrivals number[1] 258,330 257,480 251,340 252,870 263,980 264,400 ...
Visitor departures number[1] 267,020 265,220 259,010 260,010 264,020 268,050 ...

Housing

Dwelling consents - residential mth % chg[1] 0.7 -3.6 20.0 -5.3 -5.7 ... ...
ann % chg[1] 2.2 2.0 23.8 11.3 12.9 ... ...
House sales - dwellings mth % chg[1] -1.1 5.6 7.7 0.4 0.9 -6.6 ...
ann % chg[1] 21.6 29.1 37.8 41.7 38.3 18.6 ...
REINZ - house price index mth % chg 2.0 2.3 1.0 1.7 3.0 -4.2 ...
ann % chg 11.8 14.8 14.9 17.3 20.1 14.1 ...

Private Consumption

Electronic card transactions - total retail mth % chg[1] 1.2 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.9 0.0 ...
ann % chg 3.2 5.0 5.6 4.2 6.1 5.6 ...
New car registrations mth % chg[1] -0.2 5.4 0.5 -2.1 0.2 -1.4 ...
ann % chg 6.8 11.2 10.7 7.8 5.0 3.8 ...

Migration

Permanent & long-term arrivals number[1] 9,970 9,890 10,600 10,340 10,540 10,920 ...
Permanent & long-term departures number[1] 4,830 4,970 4,860 4,830 4,940 4,710 ...
Net PLT migration (12 month total) number 57,822 58,259 59,639 60,290 61,234 62,477 ...

Commodity Prices

Brent oil price US$/Barrel 64.08 61.48 56.56 46.52 47.62 48.43 44.27
WTI oil price US$/Barrel 59.27 59.82 50.91 42.87 45.48 46.22 42.65
ANZ NZ commodity price index mth % chg -2.9 3.0 -0.6 -4.0 9.4 2.9 ...
ann % chg -8.0 -4.2 -1.3 -4.6 2.8 3.4 ...
ANZ world commodity price index mth % chg -4.8 -3.1 -5.5 -5.2 5.5 6.9 ...
ann % chg -18.0 -19.7 -22.1 -23.5 -18.2 -11.8 ...

Financial Markets

NZD/USD $[2] 0.7394 0.699 0.6652 0.655 0.6334 0.6670 0.6567
NZD/AUD $[2] 0.9368 0.9055 0.8963 0.8977 0.8975 0.927 0.9188
Trade weighted index (TWI) June 1979 = 100[2] 76.49 72.97 70.41 70.32 68.77 71.80 71.39
Official cash rate (OCR) % 3.50 3.25 3.00 3.00 2.75 2.75 2.75
90 day bank bill rate %[2] 3.53 3.33 3.13 2.95 2.85 2.86 2.89
10 year govt bond rate %[2] 3.66 3.77 3.47 3.29 3.30 3.34 3.50

Confidence Indicators/Surveys

ANZ Bank - business confidence net % 15.7 -2.3 -15.3 -29.1 -18.9 10.5 14.6
ANZ Bank - activity outlook net % 32.6 23.6 19.0 12.2 16.7 23.7 32.0
ANZ-Roy Morgan - consumer confidence net % 123.9 119.9 113.9 109.8 110.8 114.9 122.7
Performance of Manufacturing Index Index 52.0 55.2 53.7 55.0 55.0 53.3 ...
Performance of Services Index Index 58.1 58.2 56.6 58.2 59.0 56.2 ...

 

Abbreviations

qtr % chg
quarterly percent change
mth % chg
monthly percent change
ann % chg
annual percent change
ann ave % chg
annual average percent change

Notes

  • [1] Seasonally adjusted
  • [2] Average (11am)
  • [3] Westpac McDermott Miller
  • [4] Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion
  • [5] Ordinary time
  • [6] Production GDP divided by HLFS hours worked

Sources: Statistics New Zealand, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, NZIER, ANZ, Haver, Westpac McDermott Miller, ANZ-Roy Morgan, REINZ, BNZ-Business NZ

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