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Monthly Economic Indicators

New Zealand Key Economic Data

29 March 2017

Quarterly Indicators

Quarterly Indicators
    2015Q3 2015Q4 2016Q1 2016Q2 2016Q3 2016Q4 2017Q1

Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

Real production GDP qtr % chg[1] 1.0 1.0 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.4 ...
ann ave % chg 3.1 2.5 2.4 2.7 2.9 3.1 ...
Real private consumption qtr % chg[1] 0.6 1.4 0.4 2.1 1.4 0.4 ...
ann ave % chg 2.8 2.9 2.8 3.2 4.0 4.3 ...
Real public consumption qtr % chg[1] -0.4 -0.1 1.2 0.1 1.2 1.1 ...
ann ave % chg 2.8 2.6 2.7 1.9 1.9 2.3 ...
Real residential investment qtr % chg[1] 2.6 1.5 4.4 5.1 0.6 0.1 ...
ann ave % chg 3.2 2.0 2.8 6.3 9.0 11.0 ...
Real non-residential investment qtr % chg[1] 2.9 -2.5 1.8 1.1 0.7 1.8 ...
ann ave % chg 4.3 2.2 2.4 2.4 1.9 3.4 ...
Export volumes qtr % chg[1] 2.2 0.1 -0.6 3.5 -1.1 -3.8 ...
ann ave % chg 7.6 6.8 5.5 4.9 3.1 1.6 ...
Import volumes qtr % chg[1] -2.1 0.8 0.7 2.9 1.7 1.9 ...
ann ave % chg 5.6 3.6 2.1 1.3 2.4 4.2 ...
Nominal GDP - expenditure basis ann ave % chg 2.8 3.3 4.0 4.1 4.5 5.6 ...
Real GDP per capita ann ave % chg 1.2 0.6 0.4 0.6 0.9 0.9 ...
Real Gross National Disposable Income ann ave % chg 1.5 1.4 1.9 2.5 3.1 4.1 ...

External Trade

Current account balance (annual) NZ$ millions -8,529 -8,321 -7,821 -7,371 -7,618 -7,112 ...
% of GDP -3.5 -3.4 -3.1 -2.9 -3.0 -2.7 ...
Investment income balance (annual) NZ$ millions -9,581 -9,207 -8,752 -8,337 -8,221 -7,911 ...
Merchandise terms of trade qtr % chg -3.8 -2.0 4.2 -2.0 -1.1 5.7 ...
ann % chg -3.6 -3.2 -0.4 -3.8 -1.1 6.7 ...

Prices

CPI inflation qtr % chg 0.3 -0.5 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.4 ...
ann % chg 0.4 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.4 1.3 ...
Tradable inflation ann % chg -1.2 -2.1 -1.2 -1.5 -2.1 -0.1 ...
Non-tradable inflation ann % chg 1.5 1.8 1.6 1.8 2.4 2.4 ...
GDP deflator ann % chg 0.7 0.3 0.9 0.1 1.2 3.9 ...
Consumption deflator ann % chg 1.1 0.7 0.8 0.7 -0.1 0.6 ...

Labour Market

Employment (HLFS) qtr % chg[1] -0.3 1.1 1.2 2.4 1.3 0.8 ...
ann % chg[1] 1.4 1.4 2.0 4.5 6.1 5.8 ...
Unemployment rate %[1] 5.6 4.9 5.2 5.0 4.9 5.2 ...
Participation rate %[1] 68.3 68.3 68.8 69.7 70.1 70.5 ...
LCI salary & wage rates - total (adjusted)[5] qtr % chg 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4 ...
ann % chg 1.6 1.5 1.6 1.5 1.7 1.6 ...
QES average hourly earnings - total[5] qtr % chg 1.0 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.5 -0.1 ...
ann % chg 2.3 2.1 2.4 2.1 1.7 1.3 ...
Labour productivity[6] ann ave % chg 0.8 0.5 0.8 -0.2 -1.2 -2.2 ...

Retail Sales

Core retail sales volume qtr % chg[1] 1.3 1.4 1.0 2.5 0.2 0.6 ...
ann % chg 5.2 5.2 4.8 6.4 5.0 3.8 ...
Total retail sales volume qtr % chg[1] 1.6 1.3 0.9 2.2 0.7 0.6 ...
ann % chg 5.7 5.3 4.9 6.0 5.1 3.9 ...

Confidence Indicators/Surveys

               
WMM - consumer confidence[3] Index 106 111 110 106 108 113 112
QSBO - general business situation[4] net % -14.5 14.7 1.7 18.6 25.7 28.3 ...
QSBO - own activity outlook[4] net % 21.7 21.6 3.8 16.8 39.2 27.0 ...

Monthly Indicators

Monthly Indicators
    2016M09 2016M10 2016M11 2016M12 2017M01 2017M02 2017M03

External Sector

Merchandise trade - exports mth % chg[1] 0.6 9.7 -11.7 9.2 0.9 -2.8 ...
ann % chg[1] -5.7 3.0 -5.0 -0.2 0.3 -5.5 ...
Merchandise trade - imports mth % chg[1] 5.4 2.1 -8.6 3.9 3.6 0.1 ...
ann % chg[1] 0.8 0.1 -5.6 -1.0 7.2 4.0 ...
Merchandise trade balance (12 month total) NZ$ million -3354 -3247 -3175 -3139 -3408 -3794 ...
Visitor arrivals number[1] 298,240 304,150 304,840 300,310 305,620 299,710 ...
Visitor departures number[1] 294,090 309,850 302,160 312,780 301,420 302,040 ...

Housing

Dwelling consents - residential mth % chg[1] 1.1 0.0 -8.9 -7.9 0.8 ... ...
ann % chg[1] 16.6 9.6 6.1 -13.1 3.4 ... ...
House sales - dwellings mth % chg[1] -5.2 -8.7 4.0 -1.9 -6.1 1.1 ...
ann % chg[1] -9.5 -14.2 -5.9 -10.7 -14.7 -14.2 ...
REINZ - house price index mth % chg 1.3 0.3 0.8 0.3 -0.9 0.4 ...
ann % chg 9.7 14.4 14.9 13.5 11.7 10.5 ...

Private Consumption

Electronic card transactions - total retail mth % chg[1] 2.0 0.5 0.0 0.1 2.7 -0.6 ...
ann % chg 6.1 4.2 5.1 5.8 5.6 2.6 ...
New car registrations mth % chg[1] -1.6 3.1 -1.0 -2.0 1.4 0.2 ...
ann % chg 8.6 13.1 13.3 7.8 12.2 7.3 ...

Migration

Permanent & long-term arrivals number[1] 11,020 11,110 11,020 10,940 11,340 11,070 ...
Permanent & long-term departures number[1] 4,650 4,880 4,820 4,930 4,920 5,070 ...
Net PLT migration (12 month total) number 69,954 70,282 70,354 70,588 71,305 71,333 ...

Commodity Prices

Brent oil price US$/Barrel 46.57 49.52 44.73 53.22 54.58 54.87 49.45
WTI oil price US$/Barrel 45.20 49.81 45.73 52.06 52.56 53.46 52.52
ANZ NZ commodity price index mth % chg 3.9 2.1 3.2 2.0 -1.1 0.6 ...
ann % chg -5.0 -4.6 3.0 9.4 8.6 9.2 ...
ANZ world commodity price index mth % chg 5.1 0.7 3.2 0.7 -0.1 2.0 ...
ann % chg 10.6 4.0 13.6 16.5 19.1 20.9 ...

Financial Markets

NZD/USD $[2] 0.7309 0.7159 0.7153 0.7049 0.7126 0.7220 0.7009
NZD/AUD $[2] 0.9634 0.9395 0.9489 0.9579 0.9547 0.9428 0.9203
Trade weighted index (TWI) June 1979 = 100[2] 77.84 76.87 77.93 78.12 78.55 78.78 76.60
Official cash rate (OCR) % 2.00 2.00 1.75 1.75 1.75 1.75 1.75
90 day bank bill rate %[2] 2.23 2.15 2.07 2.03 1.98 2.02 1.97
10 year govt bond rate %[2] 2.40 2.54 2.99 3.33 3.23 3.29 3.30

Confidence Indicators/Surveys

ANZ Bank - business confidence net % 27.9 24.5 20.5 21.7 ... 16.6 ...
ANZ Bank - activity outlook net % 42.4 38.4 37.6 39.6 ... 37.2 ...
ANZ-Roy Morgan - consumer confidence net % 121.0 122.9 127.2 124.5 128.7 127.4 125.2
Performance of Manufacturing Index Index 57.5 55.1 54.4 54.3 52.2 55.2 ...
Performance of Services Index Index 54.5 56.8 58.3 58.5 59.5 58.8 ...

 

Abbreviations

qtr % chg
quarterly percent change
mth % chg
monthly percent change
ann % chg
annual percent change
ann ave % chg
annual average percent change

Notes

  • [1] Seasonally adjusted
  • [2] Average (11am)
  • [3] Westpac McDermott Miller
  • [4] Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion
  • [5] Ordinary time
  • [6] Production GDP divided by HLFS hours worked

Sources: Statistics New Zealand, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, NZIER, ANZ, Haver, Westpac McDermott Miller, ANZ-Roy Morgan, REINZ, BNZ-Business NZ

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