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Monthly Economic Indicators

New Zealand Key Economic Data

30 March 2016

Quarterly Indicators

Quarterly Indicators
    2014Q3 2014Q4 2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 2016Q1

Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

Real production GDP qtr % chg[1] 0.9 0.9 0.3 0.3 0.9 0.9 ...
ann ave % chg 3.2 3.7 3.6 3.3 3.0 2.5 ...
Real private consumption qtr % chg[1] 1.3 0.2 0.6 0.5 0.8 1.0 ...
ann ave % chg 2.8 2.7 2.6 2.7 2.4 2.5 ...
Real public consumption qtr % chg[1] 0.4 0.1 0.9 0.9 0.3 0.4 ...
ann ave % chg 2.9 2.7 2.3 2.1 2.0 2.2 ...
Real residential investment qtr % chg[1] 0.0 4.2 0.8 -0.1 1.3 1.6 ...
ann ave % chg 13.6 14.6 11.6 8.6 7.8 6.0 ...
Real non-residential investment qtr % chg[1] 4.1 0.2 -3.0 2.1 2.3 -2.6 ...
ann ave % chg 8.6 9.6 9.0 7.5 5.0 2.0 ...
Export volumes qtr % chg[1] 0.1 6.1 1.6 -0.1 1.8 0.3 ...
ann ave % chg 1.4 3.0 4.2 5.8 7.5 6.7 ...
Import volumes qtr % chg[1] 1.0 2.5 0.8 1.6 -2.6 0.7 ...
ann ave % chg 8.0 7.9 7.4 6.6 5.6 3.6 ...
Nominal GDP - expenditure basis ann ave % chg 7.1 5.1 3.6 2.8 2.8 3.3 ...
Real GDP per capita ann ave % chg 1.8 2.2 1.9 1.5 1.1 0.6 ...
Real Gross National Disposable Income ann ave % chg 6.3 5.1 3.5 2.2 1.4 1.5 ...

External Trade

Current account balance (annual) NZ$ millions -5,913 -7,464 -8,064 -8,259 -8,096 -7,709 ...
% of GDP -2.5 -3.1 -3.4 -3.4 -3.3 -3.1 ...
Investment income balance (annual) NZ$ millions -9,373 -9,449 -9,217 -9,049 -9,094 -8,488 ...
Merchandise terms of trade qtr % chg -4.5 -2.4 1.2 1.5 -3.8 -2.0 ...
ann % chg -0.3 -5.0 -5.6 -4.2 -3.6 -3.2 ...

Prices

CPI inflation qtr % chg 0.3 -0.2 -0.2 0.4 0.3 -0.5 ...
ann % chg 1.0 0.8 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.1 ...
Tradable inflation ann % chg -1.0 -1.3 -2.4 -1.8 -1.2 -2.1 ...
Non-tradable inflation ann % chg 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.1 1.5 1.8 ...
GDP deflator ann % chg 1.1 -2.2 -1.0 0.3 0.4 -0.2 ...
Consumption deflator ann % chg 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.9 0.7 ...

Labour Market

Employment (HLFS) qtr % chg[1] 1.0 1.0 0.7 0.2 -0.5 0.9 ...
ann % chg[1] 3.2 3.5 3.2 3.0 1.4 1.4 ...
Unemployment rate %[1] 5.5 5.8 5.8 5.9 6.0 5.3 ...
Participation rate %[1] 68.8 69.4 69.5 69.3 68.7 68.4 ...
LCI salary & wage rates - total (adjusted)[5] qtr % chg 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.4 ...
ann % chg 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.5 ...
QES average hourly earnings - total[5] qtr % chg 1.4 0.5 0.0 0.8 1.0 0.3 ...
ann % chg 2.3 2.6 2.1 2.8 2.3 2.1 ...
Labour productivity[6] ann ave % chg -0.4 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.7 ...

Retail Sales

Core retail sales volume qtr % chg[1] 1.6 1.8 2.3 0.0 1.1 1.4 ...
ann % chg 4.5 6.0 7.2 5.8 5.2 5.2 ...
Total retail sales volume qtr % chg[1] 1.5 1.8 2.1 0.1 1.5 1.2 ...
ann % chg 4.7 5.9 7.1 5.5 5.7 5.3 ...

Confidence Indicators/Surveys

               
WMM - consumer confidence[3] Index 117 115 117 113 106 111 110
QSBO - general business situation[4] net % 19.0 23.6 23.3 5.1 -14.5 14.7 ...
QSBO - own activity outlook[4] net % 33.9 26.7 25.0 9.3 21.7 21.6 ...

Monthly Indicators

Monthly Indicators
    2015M09 2015M10 2015M11 2015M12 2016M01 2016M02 2016M03

External Sector

Merchandise trade - exports mth % chg[1] -7.1 -1.2 6.1 -8.6 5.5 -5.3 ...
ann % chg[1] 1.7 -5.0 0.8 0.5 5.8 9.3 ...
Merchandise trade - imports mth % chg[1] -8.9 -0.7 3.0 -2.6 9.5 -5.5 ...
ann % chg[1] -3.2 -3.8 12.6 -2.9 6.9 2.8 ...
Merchandise trade balance (12 month total) NZ$ million -3169 -3182 -3695 -3539 -3579 -3323 ...
Visitor arrivals number[1] 266,070 266,720 276,720 272,460 279,740 275,250 ...
Visitor departures number[1] 265,570 270,360 282,200 284,630 280,460 294,070 ...

Housing

Dwelling consents - residential mth % chg[1] -5.1 5.3 1.9 2.8 -7.8 10.8 ...
ann % chg[1] 12.9 9.2 17.0 15.4 -0.5 35.3 ...
House sales - dwellings mth % chg[1] 0.6 -6.9 -4.0 7.3 -10.0 3.3 ...
ann % chg[1] 38.3 18.6 8.5 3.5 4.3 5.7 ...
REINZ - house price index mth % chg 3.0 -4.2 0.5 0.8 0.1 1.6 ...
ann % chg 20.1 14.1 12.5 12.6 10.7 11.9 ...

Private Consumption

Electronic card transactions - total retail mth % chg[1] 0.9 0.1 0.8 0.1 0.4 0.7 ...
ann % chg 6.1 5.8 4.6 6.6 5.2 9.2 ...
New car registrations mth % chg[1] 0.0 -1.3 -2.0 3.1 -2.9 5.7 ...
ann % chg 5.0 3.8 1.3 2.4 -1.1 7.4 ...

Migration

Permanent & long-term arrivals number[1] 10,490 10,830 10,530 10,080 10,780 10,640 ...
Permanent & long-term departures number[1] 4,900 4,700 4,290 4,530 4,650 4,570 ...
Net PLT migration (12 month total) number 61,234 62,477 63,659 64,930 65,911 67,391 ...

Commodity Prices

Brent oil price US$/Barrel 47.62 48.43 44.27 38.01 30.70 32.18 38.36
WTI oil price US$/Barrel 45.48 46.22 42.44 37.19 31.67 30.50 37.75
ANZ NZ commodity price index mth % chg 8.8 1.6 -4.5 -3.9 -0.4 0.0 ...
ann % chg 2.8 2.1 -1.0 -1.1 -1.6 -10.4 ...
ANZ world commodity price index mth % chg 5.6 7.1 -5.6 -1.8 -2.3 0.4 ...
ann % chg -18.2 -11.6 -15.3 -12.9 -14.7 -17.8 ...

Financial Markets

NZD/USD $[2] 0.6334 0.6670 0.6567 0.6737 0.6521 0.6634 0.6724
NZD/AUD $[2] 0.8975 0.9270 0.9188 0.9296 0.9313 0.9300 0.9000
Trade weighted index (TWI) June 1979 = 100[2] 68.77 71.80 71.39 73.23 71.93 72.35 72.14
Official cash rate (OCR) % 2.75 2.75 2.75 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.25
90 day bank bill rate %[2] 2.85 2.86 2.89 2.79 2.73 2.62 2.43
10 year govt bond rate %[2] 3.30 3.34 3.50 3.56 3.32 3.07 3.02

Confidence Indicators/Surveys

ANZ Bank - business confidence net % -18.9 10.5 14.6 23.0 ... 7.1 3.2
ANZ Bank - activity outlook net % 16.7 23.7 32.0 34.4 ... 25.5 29.4
ANZ-Roy Morgan - consumer confidence net % 110.8 114.9 122.7 118.7 121.4 119.7 118.0
Performance of Manufacturing Index Index 55.1 53.5 55.1 57.0 58.0 56.0 ...
Performance of Services Index Index 59.2 56.4 59.4 58.5 55.4 56.9 ...

 

Abbreviations

qtr % chg
quarterly percent change
mth % chg
monthly percent change
ann % chg
annual percent change
ann ave % chg
annual average percent change

Notes

  • [1] Seasonally adjusted
  • [2] Average (11am)
  • [3] Westpac McDermott Miller
  • [4] Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion
  • [5] Ordinary time
  • [6] Production GDP divided by HLFS hours worked

Sources: Statistics New Zealand, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, NZIER, ANZ, Haver, Westpac McDermott Miller, ANZ-Roy Morgan, REINZ, BNZ-Business NZ

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