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Monthly Economic Indicators

New Zealand Key Economic Data

30 Mar 2015

Quarterly Indicators

Quarterly Indicators
    2013Q3 2013Q4 2014Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014Q4 2015Q1

Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

Real production GDP qtr % chg[1] 1.1 0.5 1.0 0.7 0.9 0.8 ...
ann ave % chg 2.4 2.3 2.5 2.8 2.9 3.3 ...
Real private consumption qtr % chg[1] 0.2 1.0 0.3 1.2 1.4 0.6 ...
ann ave % chg 2.8 2.9 2.9 2.8 3.0 3.2 ...
Real public consumption qtr % chg[1] 1.5 0.4 1.2 1.0 0.4 0.6 ...
ann ave % chg 1.1 1.9 2.7 3.5 3.5 3.6 ...
Real residential investment qtr % chg[1] 7.6 0.5 10.7 -0.4 0.2 5.2 ...
ann ave % chg 16.3 16.6 16.6 18.0 16.2 16.6 ...
Real non-residential investment qtr % chg[1] 3.8 -0.2 -0.8 2.8 3.5 -0.9 ...
ann ave % chg 4.8 6.2 8.4 8.7 7.2 6.0 ...
Export volumes qtr % chg[1] -0.3 2.5 3.1 -3.8 -0.1 6.1 ...
ann ave % chg 1.3 1.1 0.3 0.4 1.5 2.7 ...
Import volumes qtr % chg[1] 4.1 0.2 1.9 3.0 0.3 3.0 ...
ann ave % chg 4.6 6.3 8.0 8.9 7.9 7.9 ...
Nominal GDP - expenditure basis ann ave % chg 3.2 5.4 6.8 8.2 7.7 5.6 ...
Real GDP per capita ann ave % chg 1.7 1.4 1.5 1.7 1.6 1.8 ...
Real Gross National Disposable Income ann ave % chg 3.0 4.3 5.8 6.5 6.3 5.0 ...

External Trade

Current account balance (annual) NZ$ millions -8,476 -7,350 -6,005 -5,814 -6,093 -7,822 ...
% of GDP -3.9 -3.3 -2.6 -2.5 -2.6 -3.3 ...
Investment income balance (annual) NZ$ millions -8,507 -9,027 -9,338 -9,770 -9,956 -10,056 ...
Merchandise terms of trade qtr % chg 7.5 2.5 1.8 0.1 -4.5 -1.9 ...
ann % chg 15.8 20.2 17.3 12.2 -0.3 -4.6 ...

Prices

CPI inflation qtr % chg 0.9 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 -0.2 ...
ann % chg 1.4 1.6 1.5 1.6 1.0 0.8 ...
Tradable inflation ann % chg -0.5 -0.3 -0.6 0.1 -1.0 -1.3 ...
Non-tradable inflation ann % chg 2.8 2.9 3.0 2.7 2.5 2.4 ...
GDP deflator ann % chg 3.6 7.7 5.7 4.8 1.7 -1.7 ...
Consumption deflator ann % chg 0.6 0.9 0.9 1.0 0.7 0.7 ...

Labour Market

Employment (HLFS) qtr % chg[1] 1.3 0.9 1.0 0.4 0.9 1.2 ...
ann % chg[1] 2.5 3.0 3.7 3.7 3.2 3.5 ...
Unemployment rate %[1] 6.1 6.0 6.0 5.6 5.4 5.7 ...
Participation rate %[1] 68.6 68.8 69.3 68.8 69.0 69.7 ...
LCI salary & wage rates - total (adjusted)[5] qtr % chg 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.5 ...
ann % chg 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.7 ...
QES average hourly earnings - total[5] qtr % chg 1.6 0.2 0.5 0.2 1.4 0.5 ...
ann % chg 2.6 2.9 2.5 2.5 2.3 2.6 ...
Labour productivity[6] ann ave % chg 0.4 -0.9 -1.0 -1.0 -0.8 -0.3 ...

Retail Sales

Core retail sales volume qtr % chg[1] -0.3 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.5 1.5 ...
ann % chg 4.3 3.7 3.6 3 4.5 6 ...
Total retail sales volume qtr % chg[1] 0.3 1.2 1 1 1.6 1.7 ...
ann % chg 4.7 3.9 3.8 3.6 4.7 5.9 ...

Confidence Indicators/Surveys

               
WMM - consumer confidence[3] Index 115 120 122 121 117 115 117
QSBO - general business situation[4] net % 37.8 52.8 51.7 31.7 19.0 22.8 ...
QSBO - own activity outlook[4] net % 6.1 19.0 33.9 20.1 12.8 30.2 ...

Monthly Indicators

Monthly Indicators
    2014M09 2014M10 2014M11 2014M12 2015M01 2015M02 2015M03

External Sector

Merchandise trade - exports mth % chg[1] 14.8 -3.1 -6.4 5.8 -8.7 5.8 ...
ann % chg[1] -5.3 -5.4 -9.0 -7.2 -9.6 -13.4 ...
Merchandise trade - imports mth % chg[1] -9.1 3.6 2.6 -5.7 2.4 -3.2 ...
ann % chg[1] 23.2 11.2 0.8 8.1 -3.7 3.7 ...
Merchandise trade balance (12 month total) NZ$ million 667 -56 -492 -1182 -1434 -2181 ...
Visitor arrivals number[1] 233,310 241,280 249,030 246,200 249,230 266,490 ...
Visitor departures number[1] 232,740 239,710 257,830 253,280 251,580 259,610 ...

Housing

Dwelling consents - residential mth % chg[1] -13.3 10.7 10.4 -2.3 -3.8 ... ...
ann % chg[1] 6.6 13.8 6.7 8.1 3.6 ... ...
House sales - dwellings mth % chg[1] 4.7 7.3 2.7 17.6 -15.8 3.8 ...
ann % chg[1] -12.0 -2.4 6.5 24.2 2.6 12.6 ...
REINZ - house price index mth % chg 0.1 0.8 2.1 0.4 0.9 0.1 ...
ann % chg 4.1 3.9 6.0 6.0 7.5 6.1 ...

Private Consumption

Electronic card transactions - total retail mth % chg[1] 0.1 1.0 -0.3 -0.1 -0.3 1.0 ...
ann % chg 5.4 5.7 3.3 3.5 4.0 3.8 ...
New car registrations mth % chg[1] 3.2 -1.8 0.2 2.1 -0.7 -0.3 ...
ann % chg 31.1 21.3 16.5 21.0 17.1 12.1 ...

Migration

Permanent & long-term arrivals number[1] 9,570 9,890 9,790 8,790 10,060 9,540 ...
Permanent & long-term departures number[1] 4,860 4,670 4,800 4,710 4,590 4,710 ...
Net PLT migration (12 month total) number 45,414 47,684 49,836 50,922 53,797 55,121 ...

Commodity Prices

Brent oil price US$/Barrel 97.09 87.43 79.44 62.34 48.12 58.10 56.13
WTI oil price US$/Barrel 93.21 84.40 75.79 59.29 47.52 50.58 47.46
ANZ NZ commodity price index mth % chg 1.5 2.3 -1.4 -3.8 1.4 7.3 ...
ann % chg -9.9 -6.9 -8.7 -13.7 -13.0 -7.4 ...
ANZ world commodity price index mth % chg -1.3 -0.9 -1.4 -4.4 1.0 1.8 ...
ann % chg -9.5 -11.5 -12.5 -17.2 -17.3 -16.6 ...

Financial Markets

NZD/USD $[2] 0.8167 0.7869 0.7832 0.7764 0.764 0.7444 0.7453
NZD/AUD $[2] 0.9001 0.8973 0.9051 0.94 0.9465 0.9555 0.9640
Trade weighted index (TWI) June 1979 = 100[2] 78.49 76.76 77.43 78.24 78.18 77.16 78.11
Official cash rate (OCR) % 3.50 3.50 3.50 3.50 3.50 3.50 3.50
90 day bank bill rate %[2] 3.71 3.68 3.67 3.67 3.67 3.63 3.63
10 year govt bond rate %[2] 4.20 4.04 4.03 3.78 3.42 3.27 3.32

Confidence Indicators/Surveys

ANZ Bank - business confidence net % 13.4 26.5 31.5 30.4 ... 34.4 ...
ANZ Bank - activity outlook net % 37.0 37.8 41.7 37.3 ... 40.9 ...
ANZ-Roy Morgan - consumer confidence net % 127.7 123.4 121.8 126.5 128.9 124.0 124.6
Performance of Manufacturing Index Index 58.8 58.7 55.3 57.3 50.7 55.9 ...
Performance of Services Index Index 57.7 56.9 54.8 56.7 57.8 55.6 ...

 

Abbreviations

qtr % chg
quarterly percent change
mth % chg
monthly percent change
ann % chg
annual percent change
ann ave % chg
annual average percent change

Notes

  • [1] Seasonally adjusted
  • [2] Average (11am)
  • [3] Westpac McDermott Miller
  • [4] Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion
  • [5] Ordinary time
  • [6] Production GDP divided by HLFS hours worked

Sources: Statistics New Zealand, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, NZIER, ANZ, Haver, Westpac McDermott Miller, ANZ-Roy Morgan, REINZ, BNZ-Business NZ

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