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Monthly Economic Indicators

New Zealand Key Economic Data

1 July 2015

Quarterly Indicators

Quarterly Indicators
    2013Q4 2014Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014Q4 2015Q1 2015Q2

Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

Real production GDP qtr % chg[1] 0.5 1.1 0.7 1.0 0.7 0.2 ...
ann ave % chg 2.2 2.5 2.8 3.0 3.3 3.2 ...
Real private consumption qtr % chg[1] 0.9 0.4 1.2 1.4 0.7 0.7 ...
ann ave % chg 2.9 2.9 2.8 3.0 3.2 3.7 ...
Real public consumption qtr % chg[1] 0.5 1.2 0.5 0.8 0.6 0.2 ...
ann ave % chg 1.9 2.7 3.3 3.3 3.4 3.0 ...
Real residential investment qtr % chg[1] 0.2 10.3 0.0 -0.2 4.9 0.6 ...
ann ave % chg 16.6 16.6 18.0 16.0 16.2 12.3 ...
Real non-residential investment qtr % chg[1] -0.3 0.4 1.9 3.8 -1.3 -2.8 ...
ann ave % chg 6.2 8.4 8.7 7.4 6.2 4.6 ...
Export volumes qtr % chg[1] 2.5 2.6 -2.8 0.4 5.9 1.5 ...
ann ave % chg 1.0 0.3 0.6 2.0 3.3 3.9 ...
Import volumes qtr % chg[1] 0.2 2.0 2.9 0.3 2.8 1.0 ...
ann ave % chg 6.3 8.0 8.9 7.9 7.8 7.5 ...
Nominal GDP - expenditure basis ann ave % chg 5.4 6.8 8.1 7.6 5.5 3.9 ...
Real GDP per capita ann ave % chg 1.4 1.5 1.7 1.6 1.8 1.5 ...
Real Gross National Disposable Income ann ave % chg 4.4 5.8 6.3 5.9 4.5 2.9 ...

External Trade

Current account balance (annual) NZ$ millions -7,350 -6,005 -5,814 -6,093 -7,798 -8,604 ...
% of GDP -3.3 -2.6 -2.5 -2.6 -3.3 -3.6 ...
Investment income balance (annual) NZ$ millions -9,027 -9,338 -9,770 -9,956 -9,996 -9,706 ...
Merchandise terms of trade qtr % chg 2.5 1.8 0.1 -4.5 -2.4 1.4 ...
ann % chg 20.2 17.3 12.2 -0.3 -5.0 -5.4 ...

Prices

CPI inflation qtr % chg 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 -0.2 -0.3 ...
ann % chg 1.6 1.5 1.6 1.0 0.8 0.1 ...
Tradable inflation ann % chg -0.3 -0.6 0.1 -1.0 -1.3 -2.8 ...
Non-tradable inflation ann % chg 2.9 3.0 2.7 2.5 2.4 2.3 ...
GDP deflator ann % chg 7.7 5.6 4.5 1.2 -2.1 -0.8 ...
Consumption deflator ann % chg 0.9 0.9 1.0 0.6 0.7 0.7 ...

Labour Market

Employment (HLFS) qtr % chg[1] 0.8 1.0 0.4 1.0 1.2 0.7 ...
ann % chg[1] 2.9 3.7 3.6 3.2 3.5 3.2 ...
Unemployment rate %[1] 6.1 6.0 5.7 5.5 5.8 5.8 ...
Participation rate %[1] 68.7 69.0 68.6 68.8 69.4 69.6 ...
LCI salary & wage rates - total (adjusted)[5] qtr % chg 0.5 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.3 ...
ann % chg 1.6 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.7 ...
QES average hourly earnings - total[5] qtr % chg 0.2 0.5 0.2 1.4 0.5 0.0 ...
ann % chg 2.9 2.5 2.5 2.3 2.6 2.1 ...
Labour productivity[6] ann ave % chg -0.7 -0.9 -0.9 -0.7 -0.3 0.0 ...

Retail Sales

Core retail sales volume qtr % chg[1] 1.0 0.9 1.3 1.5 1.9 2.9 ...
ann % chg 3.7 3.5 3.0 4.5 6.0 7.5 ...
Total retail sales volume qtr % chg[1] 1.1 0.9 1.3 1.6 1.9 2.7 ...
ann % chg 3.9 3.6 3.6 4.7 5.9 7.4 ...

Confidence Indicators/Surveys

               
WMM - consumer confidence[3] Index 120 122 121 117 115 117 113
QSBO - general business situation[4] net % 52.8 51.7 31.7 19.0 23.6 23.0 ...
QSBO - own activity outlook[4] net % 18.5 34.8 20.4 12.1 33.1 19.0 ...

Monthly Indicators

Monthly Indicators
    2014M12 2015M01 2015M02 2015M02 2015M03 2015M04 2015M05

External Sector

Merchandise trade - exports mth % chg[1] 5.7 -8.9 4.8 1.3 -3.3 0.4 ...
ann % chg[1] -7.3 -9.5 -14.2 -2.5 -6.2 -4.7 ...
Merchandise trade - imports mth % chg[1] -5.6 2.5 -3.8 6.1 -2.3 3.9 ...
ann % chg[1] 8.1 -4.1 1.8 2.8 0.3 -7.0 ...
Merchandise trade balance (12 month total) NZ$ million -1183 -1416 -2129 -2372 -2656 -2570 ...
Visitor arrivals number[1] 246,150 248,560 266,930 255,790 259,600 259,830 ...
Visitor departures number[1] 253,850 251,940 259,810 269,310 259,550 267,950 ...

Housing

Dwelling consents - residential mth % chg[1] -6.5 -2.5 -5.6 9.9 -0.9 0.0 ...
ann % chg[1] 8.1 3.6 -0.6 13.6 1.4 2.2 ...
House sales - dwellings mth % chg[1] 17.7 -15.7 4.0 4.7 0.1 -1.4 ...
ann % chg[1] 24.2 2.6 12.6 20.3 27.6 21.6 ...
REINZ - house price index mth % chg 0.6 1.8 1.2 1.0 1.2 1.9 ...
ann % chg 5.7 8.5 7.1 8.5 9.3 11.8 ...

Private Consumption

Electronic card transactions - total retail mth % chg[1] 0.0 0.0 1.1 0.7 -0.7 1.2 ...
ann % chg 3.7 4.5 4.0 3.7 3.9 3.2 ...
New car registrations mth % chg[1] 2.1 -0.7 -0.3 2.4 -1.6 -0.4 ...
ann % chg 21.0 17.1 12.1 11.8 11.2 6.8 ...

Migration

Permanent & long-term arrivals number[1] 8,800 10,060 9,550 9,890 9,610 9,900 ...
Permanent & long-term departures number[1] 4,710 4,600 4,740 4,880 4,840 4,760 ...
Net PLT migration (12 month total) number 50,922 53,797 55,121 56,275 56,813 57,822 ...

Commodity Prices

Brent oil price US$/Barrel 62.34 47.76 58.10 55.89 59.52 64.08 61.53
WTI oil price US$/Barrel 59.29 47.22 50.58 47.82 54.45 59.27 59.86
ANZ NZ commodity price index mth % chg -3.8 0.1 9.7 1.5 -9.0 -2.7 ...
ann % chg -13.7 -14.1 -6.5 -2.5 -6.9 -7.9 ...
ANZ world commodity price index mth % chg -4.4 -0.3 4.2 4.6 -7.4 -4.7 ...
ann % chg -17.2 -18.4 -15.8 -11.9 -15.3 -17.8 ...

Financial Markets

NZD/USD $[2] 0.7764 0.764 0.7444 0.7473 0.7583 0.7394 0.6990
NZD/AUD $[2] 0.94 0.9465 0.9555 0.9658 0.9814 0.9368 0.9055
Trade weighted index (TWI) June 1979 = 100[2] 78.24 78.18 77.16 78.27 79.17 76.49 72.97
Official cash rate (OCR) % 3.50 3.50 3.50 3.50 3.50 3.50 3.25
90 day bank bill rate %[2] 3.67 3.67 3.63 3.63 3.63 3.53 3.33
10 year govt bond rate %[2] 3.78 3.42 3.27 3.30 3.25 3.66 3.77

Confidence Indicators/Surveys

ANZ Bank - business confidence net % 30.4 ... 34.4 35.8 30.2 15.7 -2.3
ANZ Bank - activity outlook net % 37.3 ... 40.9 42.2 41.3 32.6 23.6
ANZ-Roy Morgan - consumer confidence net % 126.5 128.9 124.0 124.6 128.8 123.9 119.9
Performance of Manufacturing Index Index 57.1 51.3 56.4 54.6 51.7 51.5 ...
Performance of Services Index Index 56.8 57.9 56.0 57.6 56.5 58.0 ...

 

Abbreviations

qtr % chg
quarterly percent change
mth % chg
monthly percent change
ann % chg
annual percent change
ann ave % chg
annual average percent change

Notes

  • [1] Seasonally adjusted
  • [2] Average (11am)
  • [3] Westpac McDermott Miller
  • [4] Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion
  • [5] Ordinary time
  • [6] Production GDP divided by HLFS hours worked

Sources: Statistics New Zealand, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, NZIER, ANZ, Haver, Westpac McDermott Miller, ANZ-Roy Morgan, REINZ, BNZ-Business NZ

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