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Monthly Economic Indicators

New Zealand Key Economic Data

July 2016

Quarterly Indicators

Quarterly Indicators
    2014Q4 2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 2016Q1 2016Q2

Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

Real production GDP qtr % chg[1] 0.9 0.2 0.3 0.8 0.9 0.7 ...
ann ave % chg 3.7 3.6 3.3 3.0 2.5 2.4 ...
Real private consumption qtr % chg[1] 0.2 0.6 0.5 0.7 1.0 0.4 ...
ann ave % chg 2.7 2.6 2.7 2.4 2.5 2.5 ...
Real public consumption qtr % chg[1] 0.3 0.8 0.9 0.1 -0.3 0.5 ...
ann ave % chg 2.7 2.3 2.1 2.0 2.0 1.8 ...
Real residential investment qtr % chg[1] 4.3 -0.1 0.6 1.4 1.3 4.2 ...
ann ave % chg 14.6 11.5 8.6 7.8 5.9 7.0 ...
Real non-residential investment qtr % chg[1] -0.1 -2.4 1.1 2.8 -3.0 2.0 ...
ann ave % chg 9.6 9.0 7.5 4.9 1.9 1.4 ...
Export volumes qtr % chg[1] 5.8 1.3 0.2 1.9 0.0 -1.0 ...
ann ave % chg 3.0 4.2 5.7 7.3 6.5 5.0 ...
Import volumes qtr % chg[1] 2.4 0.7 1.5 -2.6 0.8 0.2 ...
ann ave % chg 7.9 7.4 6.6 5.5 3.5 1.9 ...
Nominal GDP - expenditure basis ann ave % chg 5.1 3.6 2.8 2.8 3.2 3.8 ...
Real GDP per capita ann ave % chg 2.2 1.9 1.5 1.1 0.6 0.5 ...
Real Gross National Disposable Income ann ave % chg 5.1 3.5 2.3 1.5 1.5 2.0 ...

External Trade

Current account balance (annual) NZ$ millions -7,464 -8,064 -8,259 -8,096 -7,989 -7,504 ...
% of GDP -3.1 -3.4 -3.4 -3.3 -3.2 -3.0 ...
Investment income balance (annual) NZ$ millions -9,449 -9,217 -9,049 -9,094 -8,721 -8,207 ...
Merchandise terms of trade qtr % chg -2.4 1.2 1.5 -3.8 -2.0 4.4 ...
ann % chg -5.0 -5.6 -4.2 -3.6 -3.2 -0.1 ...

Prices

CPI inflation qtr % chg -0.2 -0.2 0.4 0.3 -0.5 0.2 0.4
ann % chg 0.8 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.4 0.4
Tradable inflation ann % chg -1.3 -2.4 -1.8 -1.2 -2.1 -1.2 -1.5
Non-tradable inflation ann % chg 2.4 2.4 2.1 1.5 1.8 1.6 1.8
GDP deflator ann % chg -2.2 -0.9 0.5 0.8 0.4 1.3 ...
Consumption deflator ann % chg 0.7 0.6 0.6 1.1 0.7 0.8 ...

Labour Market

Employment (HLFS) qtr % chg[1] 1.1 0.6 0.3 -0.4 1.0 1.2 ...
ann % chg[1] 3.5 3.2 3.0 1.5 1.4 2.0 ...
Unemployment rate %[1] 5.8 5.8 5.9 6.0 5.4 5.7 ...
Participation rate %[1] 69.5 69.4 69.3 68.7 68.5 69.0 ...
LCI salary & wage rates - total (adjusted)[5] qtr % chg 0.5 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 ...
ann % chg 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.6 ...
QES average hourly earnings - total[5] qtr % chg 0.5 0.0 0.8 1.0 0.3 0.3 ...
ann % chg 2.6 2.1 2.8 2.3 2.1 2.4 ...
Labour productivity[6] ann ave % chg 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.8 ...

Retail Sales

Core retail sales volume qtr % chg[1] 1.8 2.1 0.2 1.1 1.3 1.0 ...
ann % chg 6.0 7.2 5.8 5.2 5.2 4.7 ...
Total retail sales volume qtr % chg[1] 1.8 2.0 0.2 1.5 1.1 0.8 ...
ann % chg 5.9 7.1 5.5 5.7 5.3 4.8 ...

Confidence Indicators/Surveys

               
WMM - consumer confidence[3] Index 115 117 113 106 111 110 106
QSBO - general business situation[4] net % 23.6 23.3 5.1 -14.5 14.7 1.7 18.6
QSBO - own activity outlook[4] net % 26.7 25.0 9.3 21.7 21.6 3.8 16.8

Monthly Indicators

Monthly Indicators
    2016M01 2016M02 2016M03 2016M04 2016M05 2016M06 2016M07

External Sector

Merchandise trade - exports mth % chg[1] 5.8 -6.2 -7.5 11.7 -1.4 -1.1 ...
ann % chg[1] 5.8 9.0 -14.4 4.6 4.8 2.6 ...
Merchandise trade - imports mth % chg[1] 11.6 -7.9 -17.2 24.3 -1.1 -0.8 ...
ann % chg[1] 7.0 1.8 -5.5 0.7 5.7 -4.6 ...
Merchandise trade balance (12 month total) NZ$ million -3576 -3293 -3765 -3602 -3621 -3313 ...
Visitor arrivals number[1] 280,610 277,330 288,480 284,930 285,060 282,270 ...
Visitor departures number[1] 280,200 293,540 284,440 294,700 295,150 286,560 ...

Housing

Dwelling consents - residential mth % chg[1] -8.3 10.5 -9.6 6.8 -0.9 ... ...
ann % chg[1] -0.5 35.3 1.9 11.8 16.1 ... ...
House sales - dwellings mth % chg[1] -9.6 4.6 5.4 8.6 -2.9 -1.5 ...
ann % chg[1] 4.3 5.7 8.2 18.4 13.6 5.9 ...
REINZ - house price index mth % chg 0.2 1.8 2.3 2.3 2.1 1.8 ...
ann % chg 10.7 11.9 13.3 14.5 14.7 14.2 ...

Private Consumption

Electronic card transactions - total retail mth % chg[1] 0.4 0.7 0.1 0.9 -0.3 1.2 ...
ann % chg 5.2 9.2 6.2 7.8 3.3 6.8 ...
New car registrations mth % chg[1] -2.8 5.8 -3.8 6.1 -3.3 -0.9 ...
ann % chg -1.1 7.4 -0.2 8.7 4.2 -1.2 ...

Migration

Permanent & long-term arrivals number[1] 10,760 10,600 9,890 10,420 10,190 10,200 ...
Permanent & long-term departures number[1] 4,660 4,590 4,550 4,950 4,630 4,520 ...
Net PLT migration (12 month total) number 65,911 67,391 67,619 68,110 68,432 69,090 ...

Commodity Prices

Brent oil price US$/Barrel 30.70 32.18 38.20 41.58 46.74 48.25 45.38
WTI oil price US$/Barrel 31.67 30.50 37.80 40.76 46.76 48.80 45.63
ANZ NZ commodity price index mth % chg -0.4 0.0 -3.0 -2.8 2.5 0.3 ...
ann % chg -1.6 -10.3 -14.3 -8.5 -3.4 -5.9 ...
ANZ world commodity price index mth % chg -2.3 0.5 -1.3 -0.8 1.1 3.7 ...
ann % chg -14.7 -17.8 -22.4 -16.8 -11.6 -5.4 ...

Financial Markets

NZD/USD $[2] 0.6521 0.6634 0.6733 0.6892 0.6804 0.7034 0.7130
NZD/AUD $[2] 0.9313 0.9300 0.9001 0.8998 0.9290 0.9502 0.9481
Trade weighted index (TWI) June 1979 = 100[2] 71.93 72.35 72.19 72.80 72.86 75.23 76.38
Official cash rate (OCR) % 2.50 2.50 2.25 2.25 2.25 2.25 2.25
90 day bank bill rate %[2] 2.73 2.62 2.43 2.34 2.38 2.37 2.38
10 year govt bond rate %[2] 3.32 3.07 3.02 2.86 2.68 2.51 2.28

Confidence Indicators/Surveys

ANZ Bank - business confidence net % ... 7.1 3.2 6.2 11.3 20.2 ...
ANZ Bank - activity outlook net % ... 25.5 29.4 32.1 30.4 35.1 ...
ANZ-Roy Morgan - consumer confidence net % 121.4 119.7 118.0 120.0 116.2 118.9 118.2
Performance of Manufacturing Index Index 57.8 55.8 54.8 56.6 57.2 57.7 ...
Performance of Services Index Index 55.3 56.8 55.1 57.8 56.9 56.7 ...

 

Abbreviations

qtr % chg
quarterly percent change
mth % chg
monthly percent change
ann % chg
annual percent change
ann ave % chg
annual average percent change

Notes

  • [1] Seasonally adjusted
  • [2] Average (11am)
  • [3] Westpac McDermott Miller
  • [4] Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion
  • [5] Ordinary time
  • [6] Production GDP divided by HLFS hours worked

Sources: Statistics New Zealand, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, NZIER, ANZ, Haver Analytics, Thompson Reuters, Westpac McDermott Miller, ANZ-Roy Morgan, REINZ, BNZ-Business NZ

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