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Monthly Economic Indicators

New Zealand Key Economic Data

31 January 2017

Quarterly Indicators

Quarterly Indicators
    2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 2016Q1 2016Q2 2016Q3 2016Q4

Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

Real production GDP qtr % chg[1] 0.1 0.9 1.1 0.7 0.7 1.1 ...
ann ave % chg 3.4 3.1 2.5 2.4 2.7 3.0 ...
Real private consumption qtr % chg[1] 0.4 0.7 1.2 0.5 2.0 1.6 ...
ann ave % chg 3.1 2.8 2.9 2.8 3.2 4.0 ...
Real public consumption qtr % chg[1] 1.7 0.1 -0.4 1.5 0.5 0.8 ...
ann ave % chg 3.0 2.6 2.5 2.7 2.2 2.2 ...
Real residential investment qtr % chg[1] -1.4 2.6 0.9 4.9 5.3 2.3 ...
ann ave % chg 5.7 3.2 2.0 2.8 6.3 9.5 ...
Real non-residential investment qtr % chg[1] 2.1 2.5 -2.0 1.6 1.2 0.2 ...
ann ave % chg 5.3 4.3 2.2 2.4 2.4 1.9 ...
Export volumes qtr % chg[1] -0.1 2.6 -0.6 -0.4 3.5 -0.7 ...
ann ave % chg 5.9 7.6 6.8 5.5 4.8 3.1 ...
Import volumes qtr % chg[1] 1.1 -2.1 0.7 0.7 2.7 1.2 ...
ann ave % chg 6.6 5.6 3.6 2.1 1.2 2.1 ...
Nominal GDP - expenditure basis ann ave % chg 2.8 2.8 3.3 4.0 4.2 4.4 ...
Real GDP per capita ann ave % chg 1.6 1.2 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.9 ...
Real Gross National Disposable Income ann ave % chg 2.1 1.5 1.4 2.0 2.5 3.1 ...

External Trade

Current account balance (annual) NZ$ millions -8,752 -8,529 -8,321 -7,821 -7,371 -7,480 ...
% of GDP -3.6 -3.5 -3.4 -3.1 -2.9 -2.9 ...
Investment income balance (annual) NZ$ millions -9,499 -9,581 -9,207 -8,752 -8,337 -8,112 ...
Merchandise terms of trade qtr % chg 1.5 -3.8 -2.0 4.2 -2.5 -1.9 ...
ann % chg -4.2 -3.6 -3.2 -0.4 -4.3 -2.3 ...

Prices

CPI inflation qtr % chg 0.4 0.3 -0.5 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.4
ann % chg 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.4 1.3
Tradable inflation ann % chg -1.8 -1.2 -2.1 -1.2 -1.5 -2.1 -0.1
Non-tradable inflation ann % chg 2.1 1.5 1.8 1.6 1.8 2.4 2.4
GDP deflator ann % chg 0.5 0.8 0.3 0.9 0.0 0.7 ...
Consumption deflator ann % chg 0.7 1.1 0.7 0.8 0.7 -0.1 ...

Labour Market

Employment (HLFS) qtr % chg[1] 0.0 -0.3 1.1 1.2 2.4 1.3 0.8
ann % chg[1] 2.9 1.4 1.4 2.0 4.5 6.1 5.8
Unemployment rate %[1] 5.5 5.6 4.9 5.2 5.0 4.9 5.2
Participation rate %[1] 68.9 68.3 68.3 68.8 69.7 70.1 70.5
LCI salary & wage rates - total (adjusted)[5] qtr % chg 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4
ann % chg 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.6 1.5 1.7 1.6
QES average hourly earnings - total[5] qtr % chg 0.8 1.0 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.5 -0.1
ann % chg 2.8 2.3 2.1 2.4 2.1 1.7 1.3
Labour productivity[6] ann ave % chg 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.8 -0.2 -1.2 ...

Retail Sales

Core retail sales volume qtr % chg[1] -0.1 1.4 1.2 1.1 2.5 0.3 ...
ann % chg 5.8 5.2 5.2 4.8 6.4 5.1 ...
Total retail sales volume qtr % chg[1] 0.0 1.6 1.1 0.9 2.2 0.9 ...
ann % chg 5.5 5.7 5.3 4.9 6.0 5.1 ...

Confidence Indicators/Surveys

               
WMM - consumer confidence[3] Index 113 106 111 110 106 108 113
QSBO - general business situation[4] net % 5.1 -14.5 14.7 1.7 18.6 25.7 28.3
QSBO - own activity outlook[4] net % 9.3 21.7 21.6 3.8 16.8 39.2 27.0

Monthly Indicators

Monthly Indicators
    2016M07 2016M08 2016M09 2016M10 2016M11 2016M12 2017M01

External Sector

Merchandise trade - exports mth % chg[1] 2.3 -8.2 0.7 9.7 -12.0 9.1 ...
ann % chg[1] -4.9 -8.8 -5.7 2.9 -5.5 -0.9 ...
Merchandise trade - imports mth % chg[1] 4.1 -3.4 5.3 1.7 -8.5 3.9 ...
ann % chg[1] -11.9 -3.7 0.8 0.1 -5.6 -0.9 ...
Merchandise trade balance (12 month total) NZ$ million -2956 -3106 -3354 -3248 -3199 -3198 ...
Visitor arrivals number[1] 291,360 286,460 297,600 303,830 304,930 300,950 ...
Visitor departures number[1] 298,870 282,240 294,060 309,980 302,920 314,410 ...

Housing

Dwelling consents - residential mth % chg[1] -4.4 -3.0 -0.8 2.0 -9.2 ... ...
ann % chg[1] -0.5 23.7 13.7 9.6 5.0 ... ...
House sales - dwellings mth % chg[1] -8.1 6.1 -5.2 -8.7 4.0 -0.9 ...
ann % chg[1] -10.1 -3.1 -9.5 -14.2 -5.9 -10.7 ...
REINZ - house price index mth % chg 2.8 -1.9 1.2 0.2 0.9 0.4 ...
ann % chg 16.3 11.7 9.7 14.4 14.9 13.5 ...

Private Consumption

Electronic card transactions - total retail mth % chg[1] 0.2 -1.2 1.9 0.5 -0.1 -0.1 ...
ann % chg 5.8 3.2 6.1 4.2 5.1 5.8 ...
New car registrations mth % chg[1] -0.4 8.8 -1.1 3.1 -0.9 -1.9 ...
ann % chg -1.9 10.5 8.6 13.1 13.3 7.8 ...

Migration

Permanent & long-term arrivals number[1] 10,490 10,380 10,990 11,090 11,010 10,930 ...
Permanent & long-term departures number[1] 4,810 4,710 4,660 4,880 4,820 4,920 ...
Net PLT migration (12 month total) number 69,015 69,119 69,954 70,282 70,354 70,588 ...

Commodity Prices

Brent oil price US$/Barrel 44.95 45.84 46.57 49.52 44.73 53.22 54.54
WTI oil price US$/Barrel 44.69 44.76 45.20 49.81 45.73 52.06 52.57
ANZ NZ commodity price index mth % chg -0.3 1.9 3.9 2.1 3.2 2.0 ...
ann % chg -5.8 -0.5 -5.0 -4.6 3.0 9.4 ...
ANZ world commodity price index mth % chg 2.1 3.2 5.1 0.7 3.2 0.7 ...
ann % chg 1.9 11.1 10.6 4.0 13.6 16.5 ...

Financial Markets

NZD/USD $[2] 0.7123 0.7229 0.7309 0.7159 0.7153 0.7049 0.7126
NZD/AUD $[2] 0.9472 0.9481 0.9634 0.9395 0.9489 0.9579 0.9547
Trade weighted index (TWI) June 1979 = 100[2] 76.30 76.77 77.84 76.87 77.93 78.12 78.55
Official cash rate (OCR) % 2.25 2.00 2.00 2.00 1.75 1.75 1.75
90 day bank bill rate %[2] 2.37 2.24 2.23 2.15 2.07 2.03 1.98
10 year govt bond rate %[2] 2.27 2.20 2.40 2.54 2.99 3.33 3.23

Confidence Indicators/Surveys

ANZ Bank - business confidence net % 16.0 15.5 27.9 24.5 20.5 21.7 ...
ANZ Bank - activity outlook net % 31.4 33.7 42.4 38.4 37.6 39.6 ...
ANZ-Roy Morgan - consumer confidence net % 118.2 117.7 121.0 122.9 127.2 124.5 128.7
Performance of Manufacturing Index Index 55.5 55.1 57.5 55.1 54.5 54.5 ...
Performance of Services Index Index 54.5 58.1 54.5 56.7 58.1 58.4 ...

 

Abbreviations

qtr % chg
quarterly percent change
mth % chg
monthly percent change
ann % chg
annual percent change
ann ave % chg
annual average percent change

Notes

  • [1] Seasonally adjusted
  • [2] Average (11am)
  • [3] Westpac McDermott Miller
  • [4] Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion
  • [5] Ordinary time
  • [6] Production GDP divided by HLFS hours worked

Sources: Statistics New Zealand, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, NZIER, ANZ, Haver, Westpac McDermott Miller, ANZ-Roy Morgan, REINZ, BNZ-Business NZ

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