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Publication

Monthly Economic Indicators

New Zealand Key Economic Data

1 February 2016

Quarterly Indicators

Quarterly Indicators
    2014Q2 2014Q3 2014Q4 2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4

Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

Real production GDP qtr % chg[1] 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.2 0.3 0.9 . . .
ann ave % chg 3.0 3.2 3.7 3.6 3.3 2.9 . . .
Real private consumption qtr % chg[1] 0.5 1.2 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 . . .
ann ave % chg 2.8 2.8 2.7 2.6 2.7 2.4 . . .
Real public consumption qtr % chg[1] 0.3 0.6 -0.1 1.0 1.0 -0.4 . . .
ann ave % chg 2.9 2.9 2.7 2.3 2.2 2.0 . . .
Real residential investment qtr % chg[1] 0.5 -0.3 4.8 0.5 -0.1 0.9 . . .
ann ave % chg 14.9 13.6 14.6 11.6 8.6 7.8 . . .
Real non-residential investment qtr % chg[1] 4.1 4.4 0.0 -3.1 2.1 2.6 . . .
ann ave % chg 7.3 8.6 9.6 9.0 7.5 5.0 . . .
Export volumes qtr % chg[1] -1.6 0.3 6.1 1.4 -0.1 1.9 . . .
ann ave % chg 0.2 1.4 3.0 4.2 5.8 7.4 . . .
Import volumes qtr % chg[1] 2.5 0.8 2.4 0.8 1.7 -2.8 . . .
ann ave % chg 9.0 8.0 7.9 7.4 6.6 5.6 . . .
Nominal GDP - expenditure basis ann ave % chg 7.4 7.1 5.1 3.6 2.8 2.7 . . .
Real GDP per capita ann ave % chg 1.8 1.8 2.2 1.9 1.5 1.1 . . .
Real Gross National Disposable Income ann ave % chg 6.6 6.3 5.1 3.5 2.2 1.4 . . .

External Trade

Current account balance (annual) NZ$ millions -5,655 -5,913 -7,464 -8,064 -8,259 -8,103 . . .
% of GDP -2.4 -2.5 -3.1 -3.4 -3.4 -3.3 . . .
Investment income balance (annual) NZ$ millions -9,286 -9,373 -9,449 -9,217 -9,049 -9,117 . . .
Merchandise terms of trade qtr % chg 0.1 -4.5 -2.4 1.2 1.5 -3.7 . . .
ann % chg 12.2 -0.3 -5.0 -5.6 -4.2 -3.4 . . .

Prices

CPI inflation qtr % chg 0.3 0.3 -0.2 -0.2 0.4 0.3 -0.5
ann % chg 1.6 1.0 0.8 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.1
Tradable inflation ann % chg 0.1 -1.0 -1.3 -2.4 -1.8 -1.2 -2.1
Non-tradable inflation ann % chg 2.7 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.1 1.5 1.8
GDP deflator ann % chg 4.3 1.1 -2.2 -1.0 0.2 0.4 . . .
Consumption deflator ann % chg 1.0 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.6 1.0 . . .

Labour Market

Employment (HLFS) qtr % chg[1] 0.4 1.0 1.1 0.6 0.1 -0.4 . . .
ann % chg[1] 3.6 3.2 3.6 3.2 3.0 1.5 . . .
Unemployment rate %[1] 5.7 5.6 5.7 5.8 5.9 6.0 . . .
Participation rate %[1] 68.6 68.8 69.4 69.5 69.3 68.6 . . .
LCI salary & wage rates - total (adjusted)[5] qtr % chg 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.5 0.4 . . .
ann % chg 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.6 . . .
QES average hourly earnings - total[5] qtr % chg 0.2 1.4 0.5 0.0 0.8 1.0 . . .
ann % chg 2.5 2.3 2.6 2.1 2.8 2.3 . . .
Labour productivity[6] ann ave % chg -0.7 -0.4 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.8 . . .

Retail Sales

Core retail sales volume qtr % chg[1] 1.5 1.6 1.9 2.2 0.0 1.0 . . .
ann % chg 3.0 4.5 6.0 7.2 5.8 5.2 . . .
Total retail sales volume qtr % chg[1] 1.5 1.5 1.9 2.0 0.1 1.6 . . .
ann % chg 3.6 4.7 5.9 7.1 5.5 5.7 . . .

Confidence Indicators/Surveys

               
WMM - consumer confidence[3] Index 121 117 115 117 113 106 111
QSBO - general business situation[4] net % 31.7 19.0 23.6 23.3 5.1 -14.5 14.7
QSBO - own activity outlook[4] net % 29.7 33.9 26.7 25.0 9.3 21.7 21.6

Monthly Indicators

Monthly Indicators
    2015M07 2015M08 2015M09 2015M10 2015M11 2015M12 2016M01

External Sector

Merchandise trade - exports mth % chg[1] 5.3 2.6 -7.1 -1.1 6.0 -8.4 . . .
ann % chg[1] 13.1 5.0 1.7 -4.9 0.8 0.6 . . .
Merchandise trade - imports mth % chg[1] 7.2 4.9 -8.9 -1.0 2.7 -2.6 . . .
ann % chg[1] 5.9 20.1 -3.2 -3.8 12.7 -2.6 . . .
Merchandise trade balance (12 month total) NZ$ million -2762 -3388 -3169 -3181 -3697 -3549 . . .
Visitor arrivals number[1] 251,140 253,020 264,870 265,890 276,160 . . . . . .
Visitor departures number[1] 258,860 260,310 265,000 269,810 281,560 . . . . . .

Housing

Dwelling consents - residential mth % chg[1] 19.9 -5.5 -5.7 5.4 1.8 . . . . . .
ann % chg[1] 23.8 11.3 12.9 9.2 17.0 . . . . . .
House sales - dwellings mth % chg[1] 7.6 0.1 0.4 -6.9 -4.0 8.1 . . .
ann % chg[1] 37.8 41.7 38.3 18.6 8.5 3.5 . . .
REINZ - house price index mth % chg 1.1 1.7 2.9 -4.3 0.5 0.6 . . .
ann % chg 14.9 17.3 20.1 14.1 12.5 12.6 . . .

Private Consumption

Electronic card transactions - total retail mth % chg[1] 0.4 0.5 0.9 -0.1 0.2 -0.2 . . .
ann % chg 5.6 4.2 6.1 5.6 3.7 5.3 . . .
New car registrations mth % chg[1] 0.6 -2.3 0.0 -1.4 -2.1 2.8 . . .
ann % chg 10.7 7.8 5.0 3.8 1.3 2.4 . . .

Migration

Permanent & long-term arrivals number[1] 10,600 10,340 10,530 10,890 10,600 . . . . . .
Permanent & long-term departures number[1] 4,860 4,830 4,920 4,680 4,340 . . . . . .
Net PLT migration (12 month total) number 59,639 60,290 61,234 62,477 63,659 . . . . . .

Commodity Prices

Brent oil price US$/Barrel 56.56 46.52 47.62 48.43 44.27 38.01 30.32
WTI oil price US$/Barrel 50.91 42.87 45.48 46.22 42.44 37.19 31.54
ANZ NZ commodity price index mth % chg -0.6 -3.4 8.8 1.6 -4.5 -3.9 . . .
ann % chg -1.3 -4.1 2.8 2.1 -1.0 -1.1 . . .
ANZ world commodity price index mth % chg -5.5 -5.3 5.6 7.1 -5.6 -1.8 . . .
ann % chg -22.1 -23.6 -18.2 -11.6 -15.3 -12.9 . . .

Financial Markets

NZD/USD $[2] 0.6652 0.655 0.6334 0.667 0.6567 0.6737 0.6528
NZD/AUD $[2] 0.8963 0.8977 0.8975 0.927 0.9188 0.9296 0.9332
Trade weighted index (TWI) June 1979 = 100[2] 70.41 70.32 68.77 71.80 71.39 73.23 72.03
Official cash rate (OCR) % 3.00 3.00 2.75 2.75 2.75 2.50 2.50
90 day bank bill rate %[2] 3.13 2.95 2.85 2.86 2.89 2.79 2.74
10 year govt bond rate %[2] 3.47 3.29 3.30 3.34 3.50 3.56 3.32

Confidence Indicators/Surveys

ANZ Bank - business confidence net % -15.3 -29.1 -18.9 10.5 14.6 23.0 . . .
ANZ Bank - activity outlook net % 19.0 12.2 16.7 23.7 32.0 34.4 . . .
ANZ-Roy Morgan - consumer confidence net % 113.9 109.8 110.8 114.9 122.7 118.7 121.4
Performance of Manufacturing Index Index 53.7 54.9 55.0 53.3 54.9 56.7 . . .
Performance of Services Index Index 56.6 58.2 59.2 56.4 59.8 58.9 . . .

 

Abbreviations

qtr % chg
quarterly percent change
mth % chg
monthly percent change
ann % chg
annual percent change
ann ave % chg
annual average percent change

Notes

  • [1] Seasonally adjusted
  • [2] Average (11am)
  • [3] Westpac McDermott Miller
  • [4] Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion
  • [5] Ordinary time
  • [6] Production GDP divided by HLFS hours worked

Sources: Statistics New Zealand, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, NZIER, ANZ, Haver, Westpac McDermott Miller, ANZ-Roy Morgan, REINZ, BNZ-Business NZ

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