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Monthly Economic Indicators

New Zealand Key Economic Data

25 February 2016

Quarterly Indicators

Quarterly Indicators
    2014Q2 2014Q3 2014Q4 2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4

Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

Real production GDP qtr % chg[1] 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.2 0.3 0.9 ...
ann ave % chg 3.0 3.2 3.7 3.6 3.3 2.9 ...
Real private consumption qtr % chg[1] 0.5 1.2 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 ...
ann ave % chg 2.8 2.8 2.7 2.6 2.7 2.4 ...
Real public consumption qtr % chg[1] 0.3 0.6 -0.1 1.0 1.0 -0.4 ...
ann ave % chg 2.9 2.9 2.7 2.3 2.2 2.0 ...
Real residential investment qtr % chg[1] 0.5 -0.3 4.8 0.5 -0.1 0.9 ...
ann ave % chg 14.9 13.6 14.6 11.6 8.6 7.8 ...
Real non-residential investment qtr % chg[1] 4.1 4.4 0.0 -3.1 2.1 2.6 ...
ann ave % chg 7.3 8.6 9.6 9.0 7.5 5.0 ...
Export volumes qtr % chg[1] -1.6 0.3 6.1 1.4 -0.1 1.9 ...
ann ave % chg 0.2 1.4 3.0 4.2 5.8 7.4 ...
Import volumes qtr % chg[1] 2.5 0.8 2.4 0.8 1.7 -2.8 ...
ann ave % chg 9.0 8.0 7.9 7.4 6.6 5.6 ...
Nominal GDP - expenditure basis ann ave % chg 7.4 7.1 5.1 3.6 2.8 2.7 ...
Real GDP per capita ann ave % chg 1.8 1.8 2.2 1.9 1.5 1.1 ...
Real Gross National Disposable Income ann ave % chg 6.6 6.3 5.1 3.5 2.2 1.4 ...

External Trade

Current account balance (annual) NZ$ millions -5,655 -5,913 -7,464 -8,064 -8,259 -8,103 ...
% of GDP -2.4 -2.5 -3.1 -3.4 -3.4 -3.3 ...
Investment income balance (annual) NZ$ millions -9,286 -9,373 -9,449 -9,217 -9,049 -9,117 ...
Merchandise terms of trade qtr % chg 0.1 -4.5 -2.4 1.2 1.5 -3.7 ...
ann % chg 12.2 -0.3 -5.0 -5.6 -4.2 -3.4 ...

Prices

CPI inflation qtr % chg 0.3 0.3 -0.2 -0.2 0.4 0.3 -0.5
ann % chg 1.6 1.0 0.8 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.1
Tradable inflation ann % chg 0.1 -1.0 -1.3 -2.4 -1.8 -1.2 -2.1
Non-tradable inflation ann % chg 2.7 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.1 1.5 1.8
GDP deflator ann % chg 4.3 1.1 -2.2 -1.0 0.2 0.4 ...
Consumption deflator ann % chg 1.0 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.6 1.0 ...

Labour Market

Employment (HLFS) qtr % chg[1] 0.4 1.0 1.0 0.7 0.2 -0.5 0.9
ann % chg[1] 3.6 3.2 3.5 3.2 3.0 1.4 1.4
Unemployment rate %[1] 5.7 5.5 5.8 5.8 5.9 6.0 5.3
Participation rate %[1] 68.6 68.8 69.4 69.5 69.3 68.7 68.4
LCI salary & wage rates - total (adjusted)[5] qtr % chg 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.4
ann % chg 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.5
QES average hourly earnings - total[5] qtr % chg 0.2 1.4 0.5 0.0 0.8 1.0 0.3
ann % chg 2.5 2.3 2.6 2.1 2.8 2.3 2.1
Labour productivity[6] ann ave % chg -0.7 -0.4 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.8 ...

Retail Sales

Core retail sales volume qtr % chg[1] 1.4 1.6 1.8 2.3 0.0 1.1 1.4
ann % chg 3.0 4.5 6.0 7.2 5.8 5.2 5.2
Total retail sales volume qtr % chg[1] 1.5 1.5 1.8 2.1 0.1 1.5 1.2
ann % chg 3.6 4.7 5.9 7.1 5.5 5.7 5.3

Confidence Indicators/Surveys

               
WMM - consumer confidence[3] Index 121 117 115 117 113 106 111
QSBO - general business situation[4] net % 31.7 19.0 23.6 23.3 5.1 -14.5 14.7
QSBO - own activity outlook[4] net % 29.7 33.9 26.7 25.0 9.3 21.7 21.6

Monthly Indicators

Monthly Indicators
    2015M08 2015M09 2015M10 2015M11 2015M12 2016M01 2016M02

External Sector

Merchandise trade - exports mth % chg[1] 2.6 -7.1 -1.1 6.0 -8.4 ... ...
ann % chg[1] 5.0 1.7 -4.9 0.8 0.6 ... ...
Merchandise trade - imports mth % chg[1] 4.9 -8.9 -1.0 2.7 -2.6 ... ...
ann % chg[1] 20.1 -3.2 -3.8 12.7 -2.6 ... ...
Merchandise trade balance (12 month total) NZ$ million -3388 -3169 -3181 -3697 -3549 ... ...
Visitor arrivals number[1] 253,210 264,970 265,810 276,120 272,430 280,270 ...
Visitor departures number[1] 260,370 265,120 270,010 281,870 284,200 279,850 ...

Housing

Dwelling consents - residential mth % chg[1] -6.9 -5.7 5.1 2.4 2.3 ... ...
ann % chg[1] 11.3 12.9 9.2 17.0 15.4 ... ...
House sales - dwellings mth % chg[1] 0.2 0.5 -7.0 -4.1 7.2 -10.3 ...
ann % chg[1] 41.7 38.3 18.6 8.5 3.5 4.3 ...
REINZ - house price index mth % chg 1.9 3.0 -4.2 0.3 0.8 -0.1 ...
ann % chg 17.3 20.1 14.1 12.5 12.6 10.7 ...

Private Consumption

Electronic card transactions - total retail mth % chg[1] 0.5 0.9 0.1 0.8 0.1 0.3 ...
ann % chg 4.2 6.1 5.8 4.6 6.6 5.2 ...
New car registrations mth % chg[1] -2.3 0.1 -1.4 -2.1 2.8 -3.1 ...
ann % chg 7.8 5.0 3.8 1.3 2.4 -1.1 ...

Migration

Permanent & long-term arrivals number[1] 10,320 10,500 10,840 10,540 10,080 10,770 ...
Permanent & long-term departures number[1] 4,820 4,910 4,690 4,310 4,520 4,640 ...
Net PLT migration (12 month total) number 60,290 61,234 62,477 63,659 64,930 65,911 ...

Commodity Prices

Brent oil price US$/Barrel 46.52 47.62 48.43 44.27 38.01 30.70 31.73
WTI oil price US$/Barrel 42.87 45.48 46.22 42.44 37.19 31.67 30.02
ANZ NZ commodity price index mth % chg -3.4 8.8 1.6 -4.5 -3.9 -0.4 ...
ann % chg -4.1 2.8 2.1 -1.0 -1.1 -1.6 ...
ANZ world commodity price index mth % chg -5.3 5.6 7.1 -5.6 -1.8 -2.3 ...
ann % chg -23.6 -18.2 -11.6 -15.3 -12.9 -14.7 ...

Financial Markets

NZD/USD $[2] 0.6550 0.6334 0.6670 0.6567 0.6737 0.6521 0.6628
NZD/AUD $[2] 0.8977 0.8975 0.9270 0.9188 0.9296 0.9313 0.9303
Trade weighted index (TWI) June 1979 = 100[2] 70.32 68.77 71.80 71.39 73.23 71.93 72.28
Official cash rate (OCR) % 3.00 2.75 2.75 2.75 2.50 2.50 2.50
90 day bank bill rate %[2] 2.95 2.85 2.86 2.89 2.79 2.73 2.63
10 year govt bond rate %[2] 3.29 3.30 3.34 3.50 3.56 3.32 3.08

Confidence Indicators/Surveys

ANZ Bank - business confidence net % -29.1 -18.9 10.5 14.6 23.0 ... ...
ANZ Bank - activity outlook net % 12.2 16.7 23.7 32.0 34.4 ... ...
ANZ-Roy Morgan - consumer confidence net % 109.8 110.8 114.9 122.7 118.7 121.4 119.7
Performance of Manufacturing Index Index 55.0 55.0 53.5 55.1 57.0 57.9 ...
Performance of Services Index Index 58.4 59.2 56.4 59.5 58.5 55.4 ...

 

Abbreviations

qtr % chg
quarterly percent change
mth % chg
monthly percent change
ann % chg
annual percent change
ann ave % chg
annual average percent change

Notes

  • [1] Seasonally adjusted
  • [2] Average (11am)
  • [3] Westpac McDermott Miller
  • [4] Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion
  • [5] Ordinary time
  • [6] Production GDP divided by HLFS hours worked

SourcesStatistics New Zealand, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, NZIER, ANZ, Haver, Westpac McDermott Miller, ANZ-Roy Morgan, REINZ, BNZ-Business NZ

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