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Monthly Economic Indicators

New Zealand Key Economic Data

2 September 2013

Quarterly Indicators

Quarterly Indicators
    2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2

Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

Real production GDP qtr % chg[1] 0.3 1.1 0.3 0.3 1.5 0.3 ...
ann ave % chg 1.4 1.9 2.4 2.5 2.7 2.5 ...
Real private consumption qtr % chg[1] 0.3 0.6 0.3 0.1 1.5 0.4 ...
ann ave % chg 2.0 2.5 2.7 2.4 2.3 2.2 ...
Real public consumption qtr % chg[1] 0.5 -0.9 1.0 0.3 -0.6 -0.2 ...
ann ave % chg 1.9 1.8 1.6 1.2 0.6 0.6 ...
Real residential investment qtr % chg[1] 5.1 0.7 7.4 5.2 2.2 9.6 ...
ann ave % chg -11.2 -10.8 -2.2 6.6 12.1 19.2 ...
Real non-residential investment qtr % chg[1] -0.2 3.4 3.3 -4.3 2.2 -2.2 ...
ann ave % chg 7.6 6.0 5.8 4.5 5.0 3.7 ...
Export volumes qtr % chg[1] 4.2 -2.7 -1.2 4.2 1.4 2.5 ...
ann ave % chg 2.7 2.6 2.4 3.0 2.0 3.4 ...
Import volumes qtr % chg[1] -1.3 2.8 -2.9 2.1 -0.7 2.3 ...
ann ave % chg 6.5 6.1 3.7 1.5 1.9 0.5 ...
Nominal GDP - expenditure basis ann ave % chg 3.9 3.8 4.1 3.0 2.4 2.7 ...
Real GDP per capita ann ave % chg 0.4 1.0 1.6 1.7 2.0 1.9 ...
Real Gross National Disposable Income ann ave % chg 1.7 2.2 1.4 1.5 1.3 1.0 ...

External Trade

Current account balance (annual) NZ$ millions -8,268 -9,033 -10,087 -9,861 -10,486 -10,077 ...
% of GDP -4.0 -4.4 -4.8 -4.7 -5.0 -4.8 ...
Investment income balance (annual) NZ$ millions -10,750 -10,443 -10,899 -10,226 -9,824 -10,030 ...
Merchandise terms of trade qtr % chg -1.5 -2.3 -2.5 -3.2 -1.2 4.2 ...
ann % chg 1.0 -2.1 -6.7 -9.2 -8.9 -2.9 ...

Prices

CPI inflation qtr % chg -0.3 0.5 0.3 0.3 -0.2 0.4 0.2
ann % chg 1.8 1.6 1.0 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.7
Tradable inflation ann % chg 1.1 0.3 -1.1 -1.2 -1.0 -1.1 -1.6
Non-tradable inflation ann % chg 2.5 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.5 2.4 2.5
GDP deflator ann % chg 0.4 -0.2 1.7 -1.5 -2.7 0.9 ...
Consumption deflator ann % chg 1.6 1.3 0.9 0.7 0.5 0.4 ...

Labour Market

Employment (HLFS) qtr % chg[1] 0.4 0.0 0.0 -0.4 -0.9 1.7 0.4
ann % chg[1] 1.6 0.9 0.6 0.0 -1.3 0.3 0.7
Unemployment rate %[1] 6.3 6.8 6.8 7.3 6.8 6.2 6.4
Participation rate %[1] 68.4 68.7 68.4 68.4 67.3 67.9 68
LCI salary & wage rates - total (adjusted)[5] qtr % chg 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4
ann % chg 2.0 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.7
QES average hourly earnings - total[5] qtr % chg 0.1 1.4 0.1 1.1 -0.1 0.8 0.2
ann % chg 2.8 3.8 2.9 2.8 2.6 2.1 2.1
Labour productivity[6] ann ave % chg -0.1 0.7 1.7 2.8 3.4 2.6 ...

Retail Sales

Core retail sales volume qtr % chg[1] 1.9 -0.3 0.6 0.0 1.1 1.0 2.3
ann % chg 6.4 4.2 4.1 1.7 1.8 2.5 4.5
Total retail sales volume qtr % chg[1] 1.4 0.3 1.1 -0.2 1.8 0.9 1.7
ann % chg 5.7 4.2 4.7 2.2 3.2 3.5 4.2

Confidence Indicators/Surveys

               
WMM - consumer confidence[3] Index 101 102 100 103 111 111 117
QSBO - general business situation[4] net % 0.1 13.0 -4.1 8.0 19.8 23.0 31.9
QSBO - own activity outlook[4] net % 9.9 16.9 8.1 17.7 18.7 18.1 17.8

Monthly Indicators

Monthly Indicators
    2013M02 2013M03 2013M04 2013M05 2013M06 2013M07 2013M08

External Sector

Merchandise trade - exports mth % chg[1] 3.4 -1.1 1.4 -0.6 0.6 12.0 ...
ann % chg[1] 7.6 4.8 1.9 -8.0 -4.1 -4.8 ...
Merchandise trade - imports mth % chg[1] 15.4 0.6 -9.0 -3.4 13.0 -5.9 ...
ann % chg[1] 1.6 -8.6 6.8 -3.4 -6.6 17.1 ...
Merchandise trade balance (12 month total) NZ$ million -1066 -521 -687 -901 -816 -1688 ...
Visitor arrivals number[1] 224,630 226,820 230,850 229,230 225,190 228,100 ...
Visitor departures number[1] 220,920 230,130 234,070 231,190 236,180 231,260 ...

Housing

Dwelling consents - residential mth % chg[1] 5.2 -9.6 20.6 1.0 -4.0 ... ...
ann % chg[1] 28.1 -5.4 42.7 43.7 16.4 ... ...
House sales - dwellings mth % chg[1] -3.9 -0.2 3.5 -2.7 -6.9 12.0 ...
ann % chg[1] 7.5 10.9 25.2 7.5 0.0 14.7 ...
REINZ - house price index mth % chg 1.6 2.4 0.8 0.7 0.0 -0.5 ...
ann % chg 8.1 8.6 9.8 8.7 8.4 8.6 ...

Private Consumption

Electronic card transactions - total retail mth % chg[1] 0.7 -0.3 0.9 0.7 1.0 0.4 ...
ann % chg 2.5 4.2 5.2 5.4 5.1 7.7 ...
New car registrations mth % chg[1] 1.2 0.1 7.9 1.8 0.2 8.5 ...
ann % chg 9.4 11.2 17.8 16.3 15.6 27.6 ...

Migration

Permanent & long-term arrivals number[1] 7,220 7,740 7,810 7,810 8,220 7,740 ...
Permanent & long-term departures number[1] 6,420 6,430 6,200 6,060 5,990 5,760 ...
Net PLT migration (12 month total) number 1,195 2,542 4,776 6,242 7,907 10,569 ...

Commodity Prices

Brent oil price US$/Barrel 116.19 108.49 102.53 102.52 102.92 107.89 110.84
WTI oil price US$/Barrel 95.32 93.05 92.07 94.80 95.80 104.61 106.40
ANZ NZ commodity price index mth % chg 0.4 8.5 10.2 0.7 0.8 0.6 ...
ann % chg -5.9 2.2 17.4 17.3 22.5 26.9 ...
ANZ world commodity price index mth % chg 1.1 7.4 12.6 -1.6 -3.7 0.6 ...
ann % chg -4.9 3.9 22.5 26.1 24.4 25.7 ...

Financial Markets

NZD/USD $[2] 0.8389 0.8279 0.8473 0.8267 0.7908 0.7885 0.7936
NZD/AUD $[2] 0.8136 0.8013 0.8158 0.8325 0.838 0.8594 0.8775
Trade weighted index (TWI) June 1979 = 100[2] 76.26 76.15 78.05 77.31 74.00 74.78 74.86
Official cash rate (OCR) % 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.50
90 day bank bill rate %[2] 2.66 2.64 2.65 2.64 2.64 2.64 2.64
10 year govt bond rate %[2] 3.81 3.72 3.34 3.37 3.84 4.23 4.46

Confidence Indicators/Surveys

ANZ Bank - business confidence net % 39.4 34.6 32.3 42 50.1 52.8 48.1
ANZ Bank - activity outlook net % 37.6 32.4 30.3 34 45.0 43.7 43.3
ANZ-Roy Morgan - consumer confidence net % 121.0 115.0 119.2 123.7 123.9 119.8 123.0
Performance of Manufacturing Index Index 56.2 53.7 55.0 59 55.2 59.5 ...
Performance of Services Index Index 55.8 55.6 56.1 56 55.1 58.1 ...

 

Abbreviations

qtr % chg
quarterly percent change
mth % chg
monthly percent change
ann % chg
annual percent change
ann ave % chg
annual average percent change

Notes

  • [1] Seasonally adjusted
  • [2] Average (11am)
  • [3] Westpac McDermott Miller
  • [4] Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion
  • [5] Ordinary time
  • [6] Production GDP divided by HLFS hours worked

Sources: Statistics New Zealand, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, NZIER, ANZ, Haver, Westpac McDermott Miller, ANZ-Roy Morgan, REINZ, BNZ-Business NZ

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