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Pre-election Economic and Fiscal Update 2017

Forecast Analysis of Expenses by Functional Classification for the years ending 30 June

  2016
Actual
$m
2017
Previous
Budget
$m
2017
Forecast
$m
2018
Forecast
$m
2019
Forecast
$m
2020
Forecast
$m
2021
Forecast
$m

Total Crown expenses

             

By functional classification

             
Social security and welfare 28,901 30,120 30,593 31,796 33,068 34,314 35,554
Health 15,160 15,567 15,722 16,432 16,449 16,481 16,396
Education 13,809 14,235 14,011 14,784 14,910 14,955 15,172
Core government services 3,950 4,874 4,153 5,343 4,655 4,477 4,320
Law and order 3,894 4,062 4,253 4,435 4,537 4,590 4,631
Transport and communications 9,400 9,641 9,296 9,778 10,083 10,191 11,120
Economic and industrial services 7,428 7,551 8,251 8,097 8,503 8,762 8,801
Defence 2,013 2,149 2,137 2,286 2,351 2,362 2,372
Heritage, culture and recreation 2,210 2,401 2,511 2,327 2,351 2,356 2,364
Primary services 1,852 1,961 1,860 1,994 1,987 1,992 2,043
Housing and community development 1,600 1,694 1,869 2,080 2,025 1,978 2,087
Environmental protection 580 719 847 1,025 937 994 996
GSF pension expenses 286 231 234 167 213 240 256
Other 461 439 238 403 465 460 460
Finance costs 4,336 4,566 4,188 4,215 4,128 4,178 4,158
Forecast new operating spending 534 492 2,034 3,746 5,495
Top-down expense adjustment (1,025) (1,175) (570) (525) (500)
Total Crown expenses excluding losses 95,880 99,719 100,163 104,479 108,126 111,551 115,725

Below is an analysis of core Crown expenses by functional classification. Core Crown expenses include expenses incurred by Ministers, Departments, Offices of Parliament, the NZS Fund and the Reserve Bank, but not Crown entities and SOEs.

2016
Actual
$m
2017
Previous
Budget
$m
2017
Forecast
$m
2018
Forecast
$m
2019
Forecast
$m
2020
Forecast
$m
2021
Forecast
$m

Core Crown expenses

By functional classification1

Social security and welfare 24,081 25,224 25,320 26,280 27,397 28,222 29,136
Health 15,626 16,214 16,189 17,120 17,225 17,234 17,193
Education 13,158 13,478 13,316 14,032 14,160 14,210 14,430
Core government services 4,102 4,943 4,157 5,215 4,666 4,504 4,381
Law and order 3,648 3,811 3,986 4,119 4,178 4,222 4,278
Transport and communications 2,178 2,358 2,182 2,537 2,340 2,274 2,807
Economic and industrial services 2,107 2,493 2,584 2,833 2,781 2,737 2,749
Defence 2,026 2,177 2,145 2,294 2,360 2,370 2,380
Heritage, culture and recreation 787 855 861 885 875 841 814
Primary services 749 709 679 730 676 663 639
Housing and community development 558 568 577 596 557 519 540
Environmental protection 587 716 849 1,027 939 996 998
GSF pension expenses 271 212 218 151 197 224 240
Other 461 439 238 403 465 460 460
Finance costs 3,590 3,682 3,540 3,445 3,393 3,422 3,424
Forecast new operating spending 534 492 2,034 3,746 5,495
Top-down expense adjustment (1,025) (1,175) (570) (525) (500)
Total core Crown expenses excluding losses 73,929 77,388 76,841 80,984 83,673 86,119 89,464
  1. The classifications of the functions of the Government reflect current baselines. Forecast new operating spending is shown as a separate line item in the above analysis and will be allocated to functions of the Government once decisions are made in future Budgets.

The accompanying notes and accounting policies are an integral part of these Statements.

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