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Pre-election Economic and Fiscal Update 2017

Statement of Specific Fiscal Risks

Summary Table

The matters listed below are disclosed as specific fiscal risks because they meet the rules for disclosure outlined before this Statement. Full descriptions of the risks listed below are set out in the next section. Where quantification is possible, this is included in the description of the risk.

The table below is ordered by portfolio and includes the title of the risk, its status and the type of risk. The status of the risk describes whether the risk is changed or unchanged since the 2017Budget Economic and Fiscal Update or reflects a new matter. The type of risk highlights whether the risk impacts on revenue, operating expenses or capital expenditure. Cross-portfolio risks to the fiscal forecasts are outlined in a separate table.

Specific fiscal risks as at 7 August 2017
Specific fiscal risk by portfolio Status [20] Type of risk


ACC Levies Unchanged Revenue
Non-earners' Account Unchanged Expenses
Work-related Gradual Process Disease and Infection Unchanged Expenses

Building and Construction

Housing Infrastructure Fund Unchanged Capital and Expenses


Investing in Children Transformation Unchanged Expenses


Additional Capacity to Address Prison Population Unchanged Expenses and Capital


Disposal of NZDF Assets Unchanged Expenses
NZDF Operating and Capital Costs Unchanged Expenses and Capital

Earthquake Commission

EQC Unchanged Expenses

Economic Development

New Zealand Screen Production Grant Unchanged Expenses


School and ECE Funding Review Changed Expenses


Crown Overseas Properties Unchanged Capital
Goodwill on Acquisition Unchanged Expenses

Greater Christchurch Regeneration

Christchurch Central Recovery Plan - Anchor Projects Unchanged Expenses
Residential Red Zone Unchanged Expenses
Southern Response Earthquake Services Support Unchanged Expenses


Crown Infrastructure Partnership New Expenses and Capital

Internal Affairs

Fire Services Levy Unchanged Revenue
North Island Property Review New Expenses and Capital

Māori Development

Proposed Māori Land Service New Expenses and Capital

Parliamentary Service

Parliamentary Office Accommodation New Expenses and Capital

Primary Industries

Investment in Water Infrastructure Unchanged Capital


Cash Held in Tax Pools Unchanged Capital
Potential Tax Policy Changes Changed Revenue
Student Loans - Valuation Unchanged Expenses
Tax and Transfer Settings New Revenue and Expenses
Transformation and Technology Renewal Unchanged Expenses

Social Housing

Divestment and Development of Housing Unchanged Capital
Social Housing Reform Unchanged Expenses
Tamaki Regeneration Project Unchanged Expenses

Tertiary Education

Possible University of Waikato Medical School New Expenses and Capital


Auckland City Rail Link Unchanged Capital
Auckland Transport Alignment Plan Unchanged Capital
Rail Network Valuation Approach Unchanged Revenue and Expenses
South Island Transport Corridor Reinstatement Unchanged Expenses and Capital
Support for KiwiRail Unchanged Capital

Treaty Negotiations

Government Response to Wai 262 Unchanged Expenses
Relativity Clause Unchanged Expenses
Treaty Settlement Forecasts Unchanged Expenses
Cross-portfolio specific fiscal risks Status Type of risk
Agency Capital Intentions Unchanged Capital
Budget Operating Initiatives Unchanged Expenses
Changes in the Accounting Standard for Financial Instruments New Capital
Pay Equity and Caregiver Employment Conditions Changed Expenses
Services Funded by Third Parties Unchanged Revenue
State Sector Employment Agreements Unchanged Expenses
Unexpected Maintenance for Crown-owned Buildings Unchanged Capital


  • [20]Unchanged - risks where the nature and/or scale of the risk has not changed substantively since the previous Economic and Fiscal Update.
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