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Pre-election Economic and Fiscal Update 2014

Data tables for summary fiscal indicators (continued)

Table 14 - Cyclically-adjusted balance with alternative output gap and elasticity values (% of GDP)
June year OBEGAL Baseline CAB CAB using alternative output gaps CAB using alternative elasticities
RBNZ IMF OECD Low High
1997 1.8 1.3 1.0 1.1 1.5 1.5 0.9
1998 2.3 2.6 2.6 2.4 2.6 2.5 3.0
1999 0.1 1.1 0.1 0.6 0.6 0.7 1.9
2000 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.0
2001 1.2 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.8
2002 1.9 2.1 1.8 2.3 2.2 2.0 2.2
2003 3.2 3.1 2.6 3.4 2.8 3.1 3.0
2004 3.8 3.1 2.6 3.7 2.9 3.4 2.5
2005 4.6 3.9 3.5 4.3 3.5 4.2 3.3
2006 4.3 3.6 3.2 4.0 3.6 3.9 2.9
2007 3.4 2.3 2.0 2.6 2.6 2.8 1.4
2008 3.0 2.0 1.8 2.3 2.7 2.5 1.0
2009 -2.1 -1.4 -1.6 -1.8 -1.6 -1.7 -0.8
2010 -3.3 -2.6 -2.8 -2.7 -2.7 -2.9 -2.0
2011 -9.2 -3.7 -4.1 -4.3 -4.0 -4.1 -2.8
2012 -4.4 -2.9 -3.5 -3.3 -3.0 -3.2 -2.4
2013 -2.1 -1.5 -2.0 -1.8 -1.7 -1.7 -1.0
2014 -1.1 -1.0 -1.4 -0.9 -1.0 -1.0 -1.0
2015 0.1 -0.2 -0.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 -0.5
2016 0.3 -0.1 0.2 0.2 -0.5
2017 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.4
2018 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1

Source: The Treasury

Table 15 - Core Crown fiscal impulse with alternative output gap and elasticity values (% of GDP)
June year Fiscal impulse Fiscal impulse using alternative output gaps Fiscal impulse using alternative elasticities
RBNZ IMF OECD Low High
1997 2.3 2.1 2.0 2.3 2.2 2.4
1998 0.4 1.2 0.4 0.7 0.7 -0.2
1999 1.0 1.5 1.2 1.3 1.2 0.6
2000 0.6 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 0.2 1.5
2001 -1.2 -1.1 -0.7 -0.8 -0.9 -1.6
2002 -0.8 -0.6 -1.0 -0.9 -0.8 -0.7
2003 -0.3 -0.2 -0.3 0.0 -0.4 -0.1
2004 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.8
2005 -1.6 -1.7 -1.5 -1.5 -1.6 -1.7
2006 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.5 0.6
2007 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.3 0.6
2008 0.2 0.1 0.2 -0.1 0.2 0.2
2009 3.5 3.5 4.0 4.2 4.1 2.4
2010 2.1 2.2 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.1
2011 0.6 0.8 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.5
2012 -0.5 -0.4 -0.6 -0.7 -0.6 -0.3
2013 -1.6 -1.6 -1.6 -1.5 -1.6 -1.5
2014 -0.3 -0.3 -0.6 -0.4 -0.4 0.1
2015 -1.3 -1.5 -1.5 -1.3 -1.4 -1.0
2016 -0.1 -0.4 -0.2 -0.1
2017 -1.0 -0.9 -0.9 -1.2
2018 0.0 0.1 -0.1

Source: The Treasury

Table 16 - Terms-of-trade adjustment to the cyclically-adjusted balance (% of GDP)
June year Baseline CAB Terms-of-trade adjustment (impact on CAB) CAB with terms-of-trade adjustment
50-year average 30-year average 20-year average Statistical filter 50-year average 30-year average 20-year average Statistical filter
1997 1.3 0.2 0.2 0.7 -0.1 1.5 1.5 2.0 1.1
1998 2.6 0.4 0.4 0.9 0.0 3.0 3.0 3.5 2.6
1999 1.1 0.5 0.5 1.0 0.1 1.6 1.6 2.1 1.2
2000 0.2 0.7 0.7 1.2 0.2 0.9 0.9 1.4 0.5
2001 1.5 0.4 0.5 1.1 0.0 2.0 2.0 2.6 1.6
2002 2.1 0.3 0.3 0.9 0.1 2.4 2.4 3.0 2.2
2003 3.1 0.2 0.2 0.8 0.3 3.3 3.3 3.9 3.3
2004 3.1 -0.6 -0.6 0.0 -0.3 2.5 2.5 3.1 2.8
2005 3.9 -1.0 -0.9 -0.4 -0.3 2.9 3.0 3.5 3.6
2006 3.6 -0.7 -0.7 -0.1 0.2 2.9 2.9 3.5 3.8
2007 2.3 -0.8 -0.8 -0.2 0.2 1.6 1.6 2.2 2.6
2008 2.0 -2.0 -2.0 -1.3 -0.7 0.0 0.0 0.7 1.3
2009 -1.4 -1.2 -1.2 -0.5 0.3 -2.6 -2.6 -1.9 -1.1
2010 -2.6 -1.1 -1.1 -0.5 0.3 -3.7 -3.7 -3.1 -2.3
2011 -3.7 -2.1 -2.0 -1.4 -0.2 -5.8 -5.7 -5.1 -3.9
2012 -2.9 -1.9 -1.9 -1.3 0.1 -4.8 -4.8 -4.2 -2.8
2013 -1.5 -1.5 -1.5 -0.9 0.6 -3.0 -3.0 -2.4 -0.9
2014 -1.0 -3.2 -3.2 -2.5 -0.7 -4.2 -4.2 -3.5 -1.7
2015 -0.2 -2.3 -2.3 -1.7 -0.1 -2.5 -2.4 -1.9 -0.2
2016 -0.1 -2.2 -2.2 -1.6 0.0 -2.2 -2.2 -1.7 0.0
2017 0.6 -2.2 -2.2 -1.6 0.0 -1.6 -1.6 -1.1 0.6
2018 1.1 -2.2 -2.2 -1.6 0.1 -1.1 -1.0 -0.5 1.3

Source: The Treasury

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