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Pre-election Economic & Fiscal Update 2011

Data tables for summary fiscal indicators (continued)

Table 16 - Cyclically-adjusted balance with alternative output gap and elasticity values (% of GDP)
      CAB using alternative output gaps CAB using alternative elasticities
June year OBEGAL Baseline CAB RBNZ IMF OECD Low High
1997 1.8 1.1 0.9 1.0 1.2 1.4 0.5
1998 2.3 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.5 2.9
1999 0.1 1.0 1.2 0.8 0.7 0.6 1.7
2000 0.5 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.2 -0.4
2001 1.2 1.2 1.5 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.3
2002 1.9 1.8 1.9 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.7
2003 3.2 2.8 2.6 2.5 2.5 3.0 2.4
2004 3.8 2.9 2.5 2.8 2.7 3.3 2.2
2005 4.6 3.7 3.2 3.3 3.3 4.1 2.9
2006 4.4 3.5 3.1 3.5 3.5 3.9 2.8
2007 3.4 2.8 2.5 2.8 3.0 3.1 2.2
2008 3.1 1.8 1.9 2.8 3.1 2.4 0.5
2009 -2.1 -2.0 -1.5 -1.2 -0.9 -2.1 -2.0
2010 -3.3 -3.1 -2.5 -2.0 -1.7 -3.2 -2.9
2011 -9.2 -4.2 -3.8 -3.7 -3.1 -4.4 -3.9
2012 -5.1 -3.4 -3.4 -3.1 -2.6 -3.5 -3.2
2013 -2.0 -1.7 -1.8 -1.7 -1.6
2014 -0.4 -0.1 -0.5 -0.2 -0.1
2015 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.7 0.8
2016 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.4

Source: The Treasury

Table 17 - Core Crown fiscal impulse with alternative output gap and elasticity values (% of GDP)
    Fiscal impulse using alternative
output gaps
Fiscal impulse using alternative elasticities
June year Fiscal impulse RBNZ IMF OECD Low High
1997 2.0 2.2 2.0 2.0 2.1 1.9
1998 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.6 -0.5
1999 1.0 0.9 1.1 1.2 1.2 0.7
2000 0.7 0.3 -0.1 -0.1 0.2 1.6
2001 -1.1 -0.9 -0.4 -0.5 -0.9 -1.4
2002 -0.8 -0.7 -0.8 -0.7 -0.9 -0.7
2003 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.4 -0.1
2004 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.6
2005 -1.6 -1.5 -1.4 -1.4 -1.6 -1.6
2006 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.5 0.5
2007 0.0 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.1 -0.1
2008 0.8 0.4 0.0 -0.1 0.5 1.2
2009 3.8 3.6 4.0 4.0 4.3 2.8
2010 2.1 2.1 1.9 1.8 2.2 2.0
2011 0.6 0.8 1.0 0.7 0.7 0.5
2012 0.6 0.9 0.8 0.1 0.5 0.7
2013 -1.8 -1.7 -1.8 -1.6
2014 -2.1 -1.9 -2.1 -2.1
2015 -0.6 -0.7 -0.6 -0.6
2016 -0.9 -0.8 -0.9

Source: The Treasury

Table 18 - Terms-of-trade adjustment to the cyclically-adjusted balance (% of GDP)
    Terms-of-trade adjustment (impact on CAB) CAB with terms-of-trade adjustment
June year Baseline CAB 50-year average 30-year average 20-year average Statistical filter 50-year average 30-year average 20-year average Statistical filter
1997 1.1 0.2 0.3 -0.1 -0.1 1.3 1.4 1.0 1.0
1998 2.6 0.4 0.6 0.1 0.2 3.1 3.2 2.8 2.8
1999 1.0 0.2 0.4 -0.1 0.0 1.2 1.3 0.9 1.0
2000 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.0 0.2
2001 1.2 0.2 0.4 -0.2 0.2 1.4 1.6 1.1 1.4
2002 1.8 -0.7 -0.5 -1.1 -0.6 1.1 1.3 0.7 1.2
2003 2.8 0.0 0.1 -0.4 0.2 2.7 2.9 2.3 2.9
2004 2.9 -0.1 0.0 -0.5 0.2 2.8 2.9 2.5 3.1
2005 3.7 -0.7 -0.5 -1.0 -0.2 3.0 3.2 2.7 3.5
2006 3.5 -0.7 -0.5 -1.0 -0.1 2.8 3.0 2.5 3.5
2007 2.8 -0.4 -0.2 -0.7 0.3 2.4 2.6 2.0 3.1
2008 1.8 -1.1 -0.9 -1.5 -0.1 0.6 0.8 0.2 1.6
2009 -2.0 -1.8 -1.6 -2.3 -0.6 -3.9 -3.7 -4.3 -2.6
2010 -3.1 -0.4 -0.3 -0.8 0.7 -3.6 -3.4 -3.9 -2.4
2011 -4.2 -1.5 -1.4 -1.9 -0.1 -5.8 -5.6 -6.2 -4.3
2012 -3.4 -1.9 -1.7 -2.3 -0.3 -5.3 -5.1 -5.7 -3.7
2013 -1.7 -1.7 -1.5 -2.0 0.0 -3.3 -3.2 -3.7 -1.7
2014 -0.1 -1.8 -1.6 -2.1 0.0 -1.9 -1.7 -2.3 -0.1
2015 0.7 -1.8 -1.6 -2.2 0.0 -1.1 -0.9 -1.4 0.8
2016 1.3 -1.9 -1.7 -2.2 0.0 -0.5 -0.4 -0.9 1.4

Source: The Treasury

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