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Pre-election Economic & Fiscal Update 2011

Table 10 - Treasury and Inland Revenue forecasts of tax revenue (accrual)

Table 10 - Treasury and Inland Revenue forecasts of tax revenue (accrual)
2010/11
Actual 		2011/12
Forecast 		2012/13
Forecast 		2013/14
Forecast 		2014/15
Forecast 		2015/16
Forecast
$ million   Treasury IRD Difference Treasury IRD Difference Treasury IRD Difference Treasury IRD Difference Treasury IRD Difference

Direct tax

                 

Individuals

                 
Source deductions 21,243 21,676 21,366 310 23,117 22,900 217 24,716 24,561 155 26,439 26,302 137 28,217 28,056 161
Other persons tax 3,791 4,290 4,086 204 4,426 4,375 51 4,633 4,865 (232) 4,804 5,036 (232) 5,028 5,124 (96)
Refunds (1,679) (1,616) (1,620) 4 (1,531) (1,500) (31) (1,499) (1,360) (139) (1,444) (1,300) (144) (1,458) (1,240) (218)
Fringe benefit tax 462 440 453 (13) 458 464 (6) 482 480 2 512 497 15 542 506 36
Subtotal: Individuals 23,817 24,790 24,285 505 26,470 26,239 231 28,332 28,546 (214) 30,311 30,535 (224) 32,329 32,446 (117)
Company tax (net) 7,727 8,421 8,203 218 8,961 8,636 325 9,656 9,158 498 10,107 9,572 535 10,414 9,690 724

Withholding taxes on:

                 
Resident interest income 1,704 1,646 1,769 (123) 1,874 1,855 19 2,251 1,979 272 2,645 2,462 183 3,069 3,088 (19)
Non-resident income 467 427 477 (50) 478 533 (55) 536 598 (62) 589 658 (69) 630 700 (70)
Foreign-source dividends ..  ..  1 (1) ..  1 (1) ..  1 (1) ..  1 (1) ..  1 (1)
Resident dividend income 195 207 216 (9) 287 293 (6) 470 470 ..  487 479 8 498 483 15
Subtotal: Withholding tax 2,366 2,280 2,463 (183) 2,639 2,682 (43) 3,257 3,048 209 3,721 3,600 121 4,197 4,272 (75)
Total income tax 33,910 35,491 34,951 540 38,070 37,557 513 41,245 40,752 493 44,139 43,707 432 46,940 46,408 532
Other: Estate and gift duties 2 ..  ..  ..  ..  ..  ..  ..  ..  ..  ..  ..  ..  ..  ..  .. 
Total direct tax 33,912 35,491 34,951 540 38,070 37,557 513 41,245 40,752 493 44,139 43,707 432 46,940 46,408 532

Indirect tax

                 
GST (net) 19,461 21,486 21,522 (36) 22,426 22,230 196 23,650 23,462 188 24,870 24,665 205 25,888 25,686 202

Excise duties on:

                 
Alcoholic drinks 623 712 696 16 746 732 14 777 769 8 812 808 4 849 851 (2)
Tobacco products 220 210 203 7 219 211 8 212 213 (1) 206 208 (2) 207 209 (2)
Petroleum fuels 872 921 939 (18) 938 948 (10) 979 987 (8) 1,016 1,016 0 1,055 1,046 9
Subtotal: excise duties 1,715 1,843 1,838 5 1,903 1,891 12 1,968 1,969 (1) 2,034 2,032 2 2,111 2,106 5

Other indirect tax

                 
Customs duty 1,916 2,019 1,995 24 2,076 2,032 44 2,079 2,055 24 2,082 2,065 17 2,113 2,083 30
Road user charges 1,016 1,073 1,065 8 1,142 1,125 17 1,223 1,195 28 1,297 1,265 32 1,367 1,330 37
Gaming duties 266 271 271 ..  277 275 2 282 279 3 287 283 4 292 287 5
Motor vehicle fees 172 168 175 (7) 166 180 (14) 169 185 (16) 173 190 (17) 176 195 (19)
Exhaustible resource levy 36 38 35 3 36 34 2 36 36 (0) 36 39 (3) 36 42 (6)
Approved issuer levy, cheque duty & other 91 90 104 (14) 91 93 (2) 91 91 ..  91 89 2 91 87 4
Subtotal: Other indirect tax 3,497 3,659 3,645 14 3,788 3,739 49 3,880 3,841 39 3,965 3,931 34 4,075 4,024 51
Total indirect tax 24,673 26,988 27,005 (17) 28,117 27,860 257 29,498 29,272 226 30,869 30,628 241 32,074 31,816 258
Total tax 58,585 62,479 61,956 523 66,187 65,417 770 70,743 70,024 719 75,008 74,335 673 79,014 78,224 790
Total tax (% of GDP) 29.2% 29.5% 29.3% 0.2% 29.8% 29.5% 0.3% 30.2% 29.9% 0.3% 30.5% 30.2% 0.3% 30.8% 30.4% 0.3%

less Core Crown tax eliminations

                 
Core Crown income tax 872 220 220   403 403 441 441   482 482 527 527  
GST on Crown expenses and departmental outputs 5,753 6,417 6,417   6,191 6,191 6,264 6,264   6,474 6,474 6,606 6,606  
Crown ESCT 373 362 362   369 369 373 373   377 377 382 382  
Crown AIL 29 30 30   30 30 30 30   30 30 30 30  
Core Crown taxation 51,558 55,451 54,927 523 59,195 58,425 770 63,635 62,916 719 67,644 66,971 673 71,468 70,678 790
Core Crown tax (% of GDP) 25.7% 26.2% 25.9% 0.2% 26.7% 26.3% 0.3% 27.2% 26.8% 0.3% 27.5% 27.2% 0.3% 27.8% 27.5% 0.3%

less Total Crown tax eliminations

                 
Income tax from SOEs and CEs 365 436 436   564 564 688 688   712 712 762 762  
Other Crown GST ..  ..  ..    ..  ..  ..  ..    ..  ..   ..  ..   
ESCT from SOEs and CEs 13 10 10   10 10 10 10   10 10 10 10  
Lottery duty 52 47 47   50 50 53 53   54 54 54 54  
Total Crown taxation 51,128 54,958 54,435 523 58,572 57,802 770 62,885 62,166 719 66,868 66,195 673 70,642 69,852 790
Total Crown tax (% of GDP) 25.5% 26.0% 25.7% 0.2% 26.4% 26.1% 0.3% 26.8% 26.5% 0.3% 27.2% 26.9% 0.3% 27.5% 27.2% 0.3%
Nominal GDP 200,291 211,773 211,773   221,864 221,864 234,325 234,325   246,189 246,189 256,939 256,939  
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