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Pre-election Economic & Fiscal Update 2011

Time Series of Fiscal and Economic Indicators

Fiscal Indicators
June Years 2000
Actual		 2001
Actual		 2002
Actual		 2003
Actual		 2004
Actual		 2005
Actual		 2006
Actual		 2007
Actual		 2008
Actual		 2009
Actual		 2010
Actual		 2011
Actual		 2012
Forecast		 2013
Forecast		 2014
Forecast		 2015
Forecast		 2016
Forecast

$ millions
















Revenue and Expenses
















Core Crown revenue 34,946 37,842 39,945 43,440 46,219 51,045 55,735 58,211 61,819 59,482 56,216 57,550 61,165 65,736 70,428 74,786 79,159
Core Crown expenses 34,829 36,559 37,513 39,897 41,882 44,895 49,320 54,003 56,997 64,002 64,013 70,450 74,460 71,612 72,920 75,583 78,034

Surpluses
















Total Crown OBEGAL 594 1,422 2,471 4,366 5,573 7,075 7,091 5,860 5,637 (3,893) (6,315) (18,396) (10,809) (4,438) (943) 1,450 3,076
Total Crown operating balance 1,405 1,208 2,286 1,621 7,309 5,931 9,542 8,023 2,384 (10,505) (4,509) (13,360) (12,601) (2,375) 1,576 3,974 5,701

Cash Position
















Core Crown residual cash (386) 349 216 1,217 520 3,104 2,985 2,877 2,057 (8,639) (9,000) (13,343) (13,636) (9,866) (4,976) (4,056) (1,580)

Debt
















Gross debt[1] 36,580 37,194 36,650 36,617 36,017 35,478 33,903 30,647 31,390 43,356 53,591 72,420 79,779 80,000 88,403 87,129 89,788
Gross debt incl RB settlement cash and bank bills 36,580 37,194 36,650 36,617 36,017 35,478 35,867 36,805 37,745 50,973 58,891 77,290 83,764 83,985 92,388 91,114 93,773
Net core Crown debt (incl NZS Fund)[2] 25,895 24,908 24,773 22,647 19,902 13,324 6,302 1,620 (2,676) 5,633 12,549 23,969 35,652 43,780 46,678 48,453 47,775
Net core Crown debt[2] 25,895 24,908 25,388 24,531 23,858 19,879 16,163 13,380 10,258 17,119 26,738 40,128 53,823 63,151 67,775 71,324 72,534

Net Worth
















Total Crown net worth 12,605 15,450 22,825 28,012 39,595 54,240 83,971 96,827 105,514 99,515 94,988 80,887 68,282 65,939 67,526 71,514 77,229

Nominal GDP

 112,588 119,991 127,511 134,659 145,200 154,376 161,890 172,060 183,325 185,449 189,359 200,291 211,773 221,864 234,325 246,189 256,939

% GDP
















Revenue and Expenses
















Core Crown revenue 31.0 31.5 31.3 32.3 31.8 33.1 34.4 33.8 33.7 32.1 29.7 28.7 28.9 29.6 30.1 30.4 30.8
Core Crown expenses 30.9 30.5 29.4 29.6 28.8 29.1 30.5 31.4 31.1 34.5 33.8 35.2 35.2 32.3 31.1 30.7 30.4

Surpluses
















Total Crown OBEGAL 0.5 1.2 1.9 3.2 3.8 4.6 4.4 3.4 3.1 (2.1) (3.3) (9.2) (5.1) (2.0) (0.4) 0.6 1.2
Total Crown operating balance 1.2 1.0 1.8 1.2 5.0 3.8 5.9 4.7 1.3 (5.7) (2.4) (6.7) (6.0) (1.1) 0.7 1.6 2.2

Cash Position
















Core Crown residual cash (0.3) 0.3 0.2 0.9 0.4 2.0 1.8 1.7 1.1 (4.7) (4.8) (6.7) (6.4) (4.4) (2.1) (1.6) (0.6)

Debt
















Gross debt[1] 32.5 31.0 28.7 27.2 24.8 23.0 20.9 17.8 17.1 23.4 28.3 36.2 37.7 36.1 37.7 35.4 34.9
Gross debt incl RB settlement cash and bank bills 32.5 31.0 28.7 27.2 24.8 23.0 22.2 21.4 20.6 27.5 31.1 38.6 39.6 37.9 39.4 37.0 36.5
Net core Crown debt (incl NZS Fund)[2] 23.0 20.8 19.4 16.8 13.7 8.6 3.9 0.9 (1.5) 3.0 6.6 12.0 16.8 19.7 19.9 19.7 18.6
Net core Crown debt[2] 23.0 20.8 19.9 18.2 16.4 12.9 10.0 7.8 5.6 9.2 14.1 20.0 25.4 28.5 28.9 29.0 28.2

Net Worth
















Total Crown net worth 11.2 12.9 17.9 20.8 27.3 35.1 51.9 56.3 57.6 53.7 50.2 40.4 32.2 29.7 28.8 29.0 30.1

Notes

  • [1]Excludes Reserve Bank settlement cash and bank bills
  • [2]Excludes advances
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