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Pre-election Economic & Fiscal Update 2011

Core Crown Expense Tables

Core Crown Expense Tables
($million) 2007
Actual
2008
Actual
2009
Actual
2010
Actual
2011
Actual
2012
Forecast
2013
Forecast
2014
Forecast
2015
Forecast
2016
Forecast
Social security and welfare 16,768 17,877 19,382 21,185 22,005 22,560 23,252 23,829 24,471 25,536
GSF pension expenses 645 690 655 328 305 201 298 377 433 464
Health 10,355 11,297 12,368 13,128 13,753 14,350 14,330 14,239 14,233 14,224
Education 9,269 9,551 11,455 11,724 11,650 12,269 12,205 12,099 12,227 12,420
Core government services 4,816 3,371 5,293 2,974 5,563 7,138 4,390 4,474 4,450 4,368
Law and order 2,699 2,894 3,089 3,191 3,382 3,635 3,539 3,511 3,509 3,510
Defence 1,517 1,562 1,757 1,814 1,809 1,903 1,917 1,867 1,866 1,864
Transport and communications 2,405 2,244 2,663 2,345 2,281 2,468 2,128 2,079 2,136 2,025
Economic and industrial services 1,595 2,889 2,960 2,839 2,609 2,529 1,922 1,855 1,876 1,906
Primary services 438 541 534 507 706 783 705 688 686 663
Heritage, culture and recreation 844 1,107 1,002 1,281 1,966 2,490 1,542 1,494 1,738 2,084
Housing and community development 255 260 297 306 876 400 313 313 328 281
Other 68 254 118 80 479 706 488 486 485 485
Finance costs 2,329 2,460 2,429 2,311 3,066 3,655 3,789 3,921 4,313 4,345
Forecast for future new spending .. .. .. .. .. 473 1,094 1,788 2,932 3,959
Top-down expense adjustment .. .. .. .. .. ( 1,100) ( 300) ( 100) ( 100) ( 100)
Core Crown expenses 54,003 56,997 64,002 64,013 70,450 74,460 71,612 72,920 75,583 78,034

Source: The Treasury

Table 6.1 - Social security and welfare expenses
($million) 2007
Actual
2008
Actual
2009
Actual
2010
Actual
2011
Actual
2012
Forecast
2013
Forecast
2014
Forecast
2015
Forecast
2016
Forecast
Welfare benefits 15,435 16,288 17,366 18,961 19,781 20,456 21,198 21,764 22,588 23,610
Social rehabilitation and compensation 163 199 336 331 119 81 112 112 112 112
Departmental expenses 845 850 1,092 1,130 1,127 1,123 1,105 1,098 1,100 1,093
Child support impairment 183 193 205 371 281 421 505 525 339 390
Other non-departmental expenses1 142 347 383 392 697 479 332 330 332 331
Social security and welfare expenses 16,768 17,877 19,382 21,185 22,005 22,560 23,252 23,829 24,471 25,536

Note 1: Other non-departmental expenses in the 2011 forecast include costs associated with the Canterbury earthquakes.

Source: The Treasury

Table 6.2 - New Zealand Superannuation and welfare benefit expenses
($million) 2007
Actual
2008
Actual
2009
Actual
2010
Actual
2011
Actual
2012
Forecast
2013
Forecast
2014
Forecast
2015
Forecast
2016
Forecast
New Zealand Superannuation 6,810 7,348 7,744 8,290 8,830 9,597 10,235 10,824 11,590 12,449
Domestic Purposes Benefit 1,468 1,478 1,530 1,693 1,757 1,840 1,909 1,958 2,014 2,073
Unemployment Benefit 613 458 586 930 943 860 825 752 694 665
Invalid's Benefit 1,132 1,216 1,260 1,303 1,306 1,327 1,340 1,351 1,372 1,401
Family Tax Credit 1,699 1,897 2,062 2,168 2,139 2,131 2,125 2,075 2,038 2,054
Accommodation Supplement 877 891 989 1,154 1,197 1,199 1,218 1,232 1,247 1,276
Sickness Benefit 573 582 613 710 743 770 797 819 847 879
Disability Allowance 270 278 390 411 409 403 394 398 403 411
Income-Related Rents 434 465 512 522 553 587 623 663 705 705
In Work Tax Credit 461 563 584 595 585 564 558 528 503 499
Child Tax Credit 44 11 6 4 3 2 2 1 1 1
Special Benefit 106 71 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
Benefits paid in Australia 71 58 50 45 40 37 22 19 16 13
Paid Parental Leave 122 135 143 154 154 162 171 180 191 211
Childcare Assistance 139 150 159 178 188 183 181 178 182 189
War Disablement Pensions 122 134 125 137 135 133 130 125 122 117
Veteran's Pension 143 161 176 179 178 177 174 170 168 166
Other benefits 351 392 437 488 621 484 494 491 495 501
Benefit expenses 15,435 16,288 17,366 18,961 19,781 20,456 21,198 21,764 22,588 23,610

Source: The Treasury

Table 6.3 - Beneficiary numbers
(Thousands) 2007
Actual
2008
Actual
2009
Actual
2010
Actual
2011
Actual
2012
Forecast
2013
Forecast
2014
Forecast
2015
Forecast
2016
Forecast
New Zealand Superannuation 495 508 522 540 561 584 608 630 652 673
Domestic Purposes Benefit 100 97 101 110 114 115 116 117 117 117
Unemployment Benefit 52 37 48 78 80 70 66 58 52 48
Accommodation Supplement 251 245 267 312 320 312 312 310 308 308
Invalid's Benefit 78 82 86 88 88 87 87 86 85 85
Sickness Benefit 48 48 50 58 60 60 61 62 62 63

Source: Ministry of Social Development

Table 6.4 - Health expenses
($million) 2007
Actual
2008
Actual
2009
Actual
2010
Actual
2011
Actual
2012
Forecast
2013
Forecast
2014
Forecast
2015
Forecast
2016
Forecast
Departmental outputs 180 206 206 211 199 202 201 201 201 201
Health services purchasing 9,614 10,503 11,354 12,077 12,530 13,224 13,159 13,083 13,086 13,086
Other non-departmental outputs 99 97 98 106 120 121 117 111 111 111
Health payments to ACC 425 463 667 691 849 752 804 795 786 778
Other expenses 37 28 43 43 55 51 49 49 49 48
Health expenses 10,355 11,297 12,368 13,128 13,753 14,350 14,330 14,239 14,233 14,224

Source: The Treasury

Table 6.5 - Health services purchasing
($million) 2007
Actual
2008
Actual
2009
Actual
2010
Actual
2011
Actual
2012
Forecast
2013
Forecast
2014
Forecast
2015
Forecast
2016
Forecast
Payments to District Health Boards 8,547 9,312 10,038 10,670 11,133 11,703 11,659 11,644 11,659 11,659
National disability support services 755 834 889 930 971 1,035 1,020 1,020 1,019 1,019
Public health services purchasing 312 357 427 477 426 486 480 419 408 408
Health services purchasing 9,614 10,503 11,354 12,077 12,530 13,224 13,159 13,083 13,086 13,086

Source: The Treasury

Table 6.6 - Education expenses
($million) 2007
Actual
2008
Actual
2009
Actual
2010
Actual
2011
Actual
2012
Forecast
2013
Forecast
2014
Forecast
2015
Forecast
2016
Forecast
Early childhood education 617 860 1,030 1,184 1,340 1,353 1,414 1,469 1,521 1,575
Primary and secondary schools 4,325 4,552 4,936 5,157 5,354 5,521 5,608 5,499 5,602 5,735
Tertiary funding 3,322 3,266 4,564 4,465 3,991 4,273 4,191 4,145 4,127 4,133
Departmental expenses 875 828 888 898 923 1,047 981 977 969 969
Other education expenses 130 45 37 20 42 75 11 9 8 8
Education expenses 9,269 9,551 11,455 11,724 11,650 12,269 12,205 12,099 12,227 12,420
Table 6.6 - Education expenses (continued)
Places 2007
Actual
2008
Actual
2009
Actual
2010
Actual
2011
Actual
2012
Forecast
2013
Forecast
2014
Forecast
2015
Forecast
2016
Forecast
Early childhood education1 123,196 133,863 142,014 155,108 159,995 166,807 172,895 179,823 185,638 192,135

Note 1: Full-time equivalent based on 1,000 funded child hours per year based as at 1 July.

Sources: Ministry of Education, The Treasury

Table 6.7 - Primary and secondary education expenses
($million) 2007
Actual
2008
Actual
2009
Actual
2010
Actual
2011
Actual
2012
Forecast
2013
Forecast
2014
Forecast
2015
Forecast
2016
Forecast
Primary 2,141 2,262 2,484 2,622 2,731 2,815 2,870 2,821 2,892 2,974
Secondary 1,682 1,761 1,898 1,972 2,051 2,121 2,142 2,083 2,104 2,143
School transport 125 131 152 160 163 173 178 186 193 199
Special needs support 263 278 290 297 310 316 320 313 316 322
Professional development 104 108 101 95 90 87 88 87 87 87
Schooling improvement 10 12 11 11 9 9 10 9 10 10
Primary and secondary education expenses 4,325 4,552 4,936 5,157 5,354 5,521 5,608 5,499 5,602 5,735
Table 6.7 - Primary and secondary education expenses (continued)
Places 2007
Actual
2008
Actual
2009
Actual
2010
Actual
2011
Actual
2012
Forecast
2013
Forecast
2014
Forecast
2015
Forecast
2016
Forecast
Primary1 479,230 475,820 474,630 473,431 474,149 480,477 485,321 491,068 499,160 505,442
Secondary1 277,619 277,582 280,062 281,095 281,999 279,588 278,831 277,599 276,550 275,310

Note 1: These are snapshots based as at 1 July for primary year levels (years 1 to 8) and 1 March for secondary year levels (years 9 to 13). These numbers include special school rolls but exclude health camps, hospital schools and home schooling.

Sources: Ministry of Education, The Treasury

Table 6.8 - Tertiary education expenses
($million) 2007
Actual
2008
Actual
2009
Actual
2010
Actual
2011
Actual
2012
Forecast
2013
Forecast
2014
Forecast
2015
Forecast
2016
Forecast
Tuition 1,962 2,172 2,287 2,398 2,354 2,370 2,381 2,367 2,372 2,373
Other tertiary funding 339 452 522 489 429 461 441 443 441 441
Tertiary student allowances 382 386 444 570 620 634 580 532 511 507
Initial fair value change in student loans .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
Student loans 639 256 1,311 1,008 588 808 789 803 803 812
Tertiary education expenses 3,322 3,266 4,564 4,465 3,991 4,273 4,191 4,145 4,127 4,133
Table 6.8 - Tertiary education expenses (continued)
Places (year) 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Estimated funded places1 225,652 225,836 234,230 239,978 238,721 244,339 242,533 242,633 242,687 242,723
Actual delivered places1 230,319 229,224 246,041 250,440

Note 1: Tertiary places are the number of equivalent full time (EFT) students in: student achievement component; adult and community education; and youth guarantee programmes. Note that historical place numbers have been revised so will differ from previous published EFU numbers. Place numbers are based on calendar years rather than fiscal years.

Sources: Ministry of Education, The Treasury

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