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Pre-election Economic & Fiscal Update 2011

Forecast Statement of Financial Performance

for the years ending 30 June

Forecast Statement of Financial Performance
for the years ending 30 June
Note 2011
Actual
$m
2012
Previous
Budget
$m
2012
Forecast
$m
2013
Forecast
$m
2014
Forecast
$m
2015
Forecast
$m
2016
Forecast
$m

Revenue

Taxation revenue 1 51,128 54,690 54,957 58,571 62,885 66,869 70,642
Other sovereign revenue 1 5,281 5,808 5,563 5,731 6,118 6,366 6,951
Total revenue levied through the Crown's sovereign power 56,409 60,498 60,520 64,302 69,003 73,235 77,593
Sales of goods and services 15,084 16,078 16,825 17,314 18,426 19,164 19,941
Interest revenue and dividends 2 2,570 3,051 2,814 3,308 3,688 4,259 4,537
Other revenue 7,500 3,106 3,478 3,563 3,698 3,778 3,816
Total revenue earned through the Crown's operations 25,154 22,235 23,117 24,185 25,812 27,201 28,294
Total revenue (excluding gains) 81,563 82,733 83,637 88,487 94,815 100,436 105,887

Expenses

Transfer payments and subsidies 3 22,172 22,926 22,580 23,175 23,686 24,540 25,591
Personnel expenses 4 19,088 19,149 19,536 19,773 19,967 20,219 20,490
Depreciation and amortisation 5 4,682 4,631 4,562 4,797 4,931 4,988 5,067
Other operating expenses 5 35,829 37,792 40,685 35,782 36,180 36,720 37,505
Interest expenses 6 3,596 4,685 3,959 4,464 4,901 5,389 5,458
Insurance expenses 7 14,592 3,138 3,751 4,140 4,405 4,298 4,841
Forecast new operating spending 8 - 463 473 1,094 1,788 2,932 3,959
Top-down expense adjustment 8 - (310) (1,100) (300) (100) (100) (100)
Total expenses (excluding losses) 99,959 92,474 94,446 92,925 95,758 98,986 102,811
Operating balance before gains/(losses) (18,396) (9,741) (10,809) (4,438) (943) 1,450 3,076
Net gains/(losses) on financial instruments 9 4,619 1,973 (4) 1,588 2,055 2,062 2,132
Net gains/(losses) on non-financial instruments 10 79 172 (2,064) 191 170 176 185
Total gains/(losses) 4,698 2,145 (2,068) 1,779 2,225 2,238 2,317
Net surplus from associates and joint ventures 237 303 276 284 294 286 308
Operating balance (including minority interest) (13,461) (7,293) (12,601) (2,375) 1,576 3,974 5,701
Attributable to minority interest 101 - - - - - -
Operating balance 11 (13,360) (7,293) (12,601) (2,375) 1,576 3,974 5,701

The accompanying notes and accounting policies are an integral part of these Statements.

Forecast Statement of Financial Performance (continued) - Functional Expense Analysis
for the years ending 30 June

Forecast Statement of Financial Performance (continued) - Functional Expense Analysis
for the years ending 30 June
2011
Actual
$m
2012
Previous
Budget
$m
2012
Forecast
$m
2013
Forecast
$m
2014
Forecast
$m
2015
Forecast
$m
2016
Forecast
$m

Total Crown expenses

By functional classification

Social security and welfare 25,324 26,353 26,047 27,182 28,054 28,961 30,335
GSF pension expenses 311 311 210 307 387 442 474
Health 13,068 13,787 13,809 13,676 13,594 13,597 13,597
Education 12,406 13,005 13,052 12,987 12,957 13,116 13,336
Core government services 5,515 5,440 7,018 4,300 4,395 4,366 4,287
Law and order 3,567 3,745 3,823 3,750 3,724 3,737 3,748
Defence 1,778 1,872 1,856 1,876 1,827 1,825 1,823
Transport and communications 8,402 8,584 8,943 8,939 9,192 9,448 9,733
Economic and industrial services 18,818 7,758 8,884 8,413 8,766 8,626 9,120
Primary services 1,603 1,700 1,710 1,652 1,654 1,656 1,639
Heritage, culture and recreation 3,437 3,327 3,898 3,015 3,039 3,329 3,704
Housing and community development 1,655 1,119 1,158 1,082 1,094 1,177 1,213
Other 479 635 706 488 486 485 485
Finance costs 3,596 4,685 3,959 4,464 4,901 5,389 5,458
Forecast new operating spending - 463 473 1,094 1,788 2,932 3,959
Top-down expense adjustment - (310) (1,100) (300) (100) (100) (100)
Total Crown expenses excluding losses 99,959 92,474 94,446 92,925 95,758 98,986 102,811

Below is an analysis of core Crown expenses by functional classification. Core Crown expenses include expenses incurred by Ministers, Departments, Offices of Parliament, the NZS Fund and the Reserve Bank, but not Crown entities and State-owned enterprises.

Analysis of core Crown expenses by functional classification
2011
Actual
$m
2012
Previous
Budget
$m
2012
Forecast
$m
2013
Forecast
$m
2014
Forecast
$m
2015
Forecast
$m
2016
Forecast
$m

Core Crown expenses

By functional classification

Social security and welfare 22,005 22,935 22,560 23,252 23,829 24,471 25,536
GSF pension expenses 305 302 201 298 377 433 464
Health 13,753 14,353 14,350 14,330 14,239 14,233 14,224
Education 11,650 12,257 12,269 12,205 12,099 12,227 12,420
Core government services 5,563 5,564 7,138 4,390 4,474 4,450 4,368
Law and order 3,382 3,555 3,635 3,539 3,511 3,509 3,510
Defence 1,809 1,911 1,903 1,917 1,867 1,866 1,864
Transport and communications 2,281 2,378 2,468 2,128 2,079 2,136 2,025
Economic and industrial services 2,609 2,235 2,529 1,922 1,855 1,876 1,906
Primary services 706 755 783 705 688 686 663
Heritage, culture and recreation 1,966 1,947 2,490 1,542 1,494 1,738 2,084
Housing and community development 876 333 400 313 313 328 281
Other 479 635 706 488 486 485 485
Finance costs 3,066 3,714 3,655 3,789 3,921 4,313 4,345
Forecast new operating spending - 463 473 1,094 1,788 2,932 3,959
Top-down expense adjustment - (310) (1,100) (300) (100) (100) (100)
Total core Crown expenses excluding losses 70,450 73,027 74,460 71,612 72,920 75,583 78,034

The accompanying notes and accounting policies are an integral part of these Statements.

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