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Pre-election Economic & Fiscal Update 2011

Statement of Specific Fiscal Risks

Summary Table

The matters listed below are disclosed as specific fiscal risks because they meet the rules for disclosure outlined at the end of the chapter. Full descriptions of the risks listed below are set out in the next section.

Specific fiscal risks as at 18 October Status Value of risk

Pending policy decisions affecting revenue

ACC - Levies Changed Unquantified
Finance - Mixed Ownership Model Unchanged Unquantified
Revenue - Apportionment Rules for Mixed-Use Assets Changed Unquantified
Revenue - Income-Sharing Tax Credits Unchanged $500 million per annum
Revenue - Potential Tax Policy Changes Changed Unquantified
Revenue - Salary Trade-Offs Changed Unquantified
Services funded by Third Party Revenue Changed Unquantified

Pending policy decisions affecting expenses

Climate Change - Review of the Emissions Trading Scheme Changed Up to $585 million operating expenses
Education - Early Childhood Education Funding Changed Unquantified
Education - Upward Adjustment for School Operating Funding Unchanged Unquantified
Government Response to Wai 262 New Unquantified
Housing - Reform of Social Housing Changed Unquantified
Revenue - KiwiSaver Auto-Enrolment New $350 to $550 million operating expenses
Revenue - Transformation and Technology Renewal Changed Unquantified
Reviews of Public Services Unchanged Unquantified
Social Development - Welfare Working Group Recommendations Changed Unquantified
State Sector Employment Agreements Unchanged Unquantified

Pending capital decisions

Agriculture and Forestry - Investment in Water Infrastructure Changed Unquantified
Departmental Capital Intentions Unchanged Unquantified
Finance - Crown Overseas Properties Unchanged $150 million capital expenditure
Transport - Support for New Zealand Railways Corporation Changed Unquantified
Matters dependent on external factors
ACC - Non-Earners' Account Changed Unquantified
ACC - Work-related Gradual Process Disease and Infection New Unquantified
ACC, Education, Health, Social Development - Caregiver Employment Conditions Changed Unquantified
Canterbury Earthquake - AMI Support Package Changed Unquantified
Canterbury Earthquake - EQC New Unquantified
Canterbury Earthquake - Exceeding the CERF Changed Unquantified
Climate Change - Finance for Developing Countries Unchanged Unquantified
Climate Change - International Climate Change Obligations Unchanged Unquantified
Climate Change - Kyoto Protocol Obligations Unchanged Unquantified
Communications - Potential Impairment in Value of Broadband Investment Changed Unquantified
Defence Force - Asset Valuations New Unquantified
Defence Force - Future Operationally Deployed Forces Activity Changed $10 to $30 million operating expenses per annum
Energy - Crown Revenue from Petroleum Royalties Unchanged Unquantified
Finance - Entities in Receivership under Crown Retail Deposit Guarantee Scheme Unchanged Unquantified
Finance - Extended Crown Retail Deposit Guarantee Scheme Changed Unquantified
Finance - Government Commitments to International Financial Institutions Changed Unquantified
Health - Payment of Family Caregivers Unchanged Unquantified
Revenue - Cash Held in Tax Pools Unchanged Unquantified
Transport - Response to the MV Rena Grounding New Unquantified
Treaty Negotiations - Treaty Settlement Forecast Unchanged Unquantified
Treaty Negotiations - Relativity Clause Unchanged Unquantified
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