4 Specific Fiscal Risks (continued)
Specific Fiscal Risks
Quantified Risks
The risks outlined in these tables would, if they eventuated, impact on the Government's forecast new operating and/or capital spending amounts.
The Minister of Finance has yet to fully consider the quantum of these risks.
|
Quantified risks as at 23 September 2008 |
Operating balance |
Gross debt |
Value of risk ($million) |
Funding in Budget 2008 ($million) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Risks | ||||
| Energy - ETS household assistance package | Decrease | - | 1 billion over the period 2008/09 to 2023/24 and 180 million between 2009/10 and 2010/11 |
- |
| Justice - Supreme Court Construction Cost Pressures |
Decrease | Increase | 8 to 12 capital and 2 to 4 operating between 2008/09 and 2012/13 |
- |
| New Zealand Defence Force - Operationally Deployed Forces |
Decrease | - | 10 to 15 operating per annum from 2009/10 | 54 operating |
| Transport - Canterbury Transport Project | - | Increase | 211 capital | 34 capital between 2008/09 and 2012/13 |
| Transport - Penlink Roading Project | - | Increase | 100 to 200 capital in 2009 | - |
| Transport - Waterview Connection | - | Increase | 1.5 billion capital between 2015 and 2050 | - |
| Transport - Waterview Connection, risk of not tolling project |
Decrease | Increase | 500 capital between 2015 and 2050 | - |
| Changed risks | ||||
| Education - Early Childhood Education Ratio Changes |
Decrease | - | 35 per annum operating from 2011/12 | - |
| Education - School Property | Decrease | Increase |
Operating: 14 in 2009/10 rising to Capital: 153 in each of 2009/10 and |
Operating: 6 in 2008/09, 5 in Capital: 71 in 2008/09, 3 in |
| Education - Schools Plus | Decrease | Increase | 134 to 340 from 2011 | 40 in 2008/09 |
| Education (Tertiary) - Tertiary Education Capital Investment Fund |
- | Increase | 123 capital between 2008/09 and 2011/12 | 12 in 2008/09 |
| Education (Tertiary) - Wananga Capital Injections |
- | Increase | 59 capital in 2008/09 | - |
| Health - Indicative Funding for Budgets 2009 and 2010 |
Decrease | - | 750 in 2009/10, 1,498 in 2010/11, 1,484 in 2011/12 and 1,486 in 2009/10 |
750 per annum from 2008/09 |
| New Zealand Defence Force - Sale of Skyhawks and Aermacchi Trainers |
Increase | Decrease | 90 capital in 2008/09 | - |
| Police - Increases to Police Staff | Decrease | Increase | 45 capital in 2009/10 | 41 per annum operating and 10 capital in 2008/09 |
| Unchanged Risks | ||||
| Customs - Border Management System (CusMod) Replacement |
Decrease | Increase | 15 per annum operating and 105 capital | 1 operating one-off to further develop the business case |
| Economic Development - Venture Investment Fund |
- | Increase | 40 capital in 2009/10 and 2010/11 | - |
| Education (Tertiary) - Vocational Training | Decrease | - | 2.5 in 2008/09, 7.5 in 2009/10, 15 in 2010/11 and 20 in 2011/12 and outyears |
- |
| Environment - Purchase of Kyoto Compliant Emission Units |
- | Increase | 500 capital | - |
| Justice - Financial Action Taskforce Recommendations | Decrease | - | 15 per annum | - |
| Justice - Greater Auckland Region Service Delivery Strategy |
Decrease | Increase | 265, operating / capital split yet to be determined | - |
| Maori Affairs - Maori Business Aotearoa New Zealand | Increase | Increase | 40 capital in 2008/09 and 4 per annum operating saving |
- |
| New Zealand Defence Force - Capital Injections |
- | Increase | 210 over the forecast period | 130 capital |
| Social Development - Youth Court Sentencing Orders |
Decrease | Increase | 12 operating and 4 capital | - |
