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Pre-Election Economic and Fiscal Update 2008

4 Specific Fiscal Risks (continued)

Specific Fiscal Risks

Quantified Risks

The risks outlined in these tables would, if they eventuated, impact on the Government's forecast new operating and/or capital spending amounts.

The Minister of Finance has yet to fully consider the quantum of these risks.

Quantified Risks
Quantified risks as at
23 September 2008
Operating balance Gross
debt
Value of risk
($million)
Funding in Budget 2008
($million)
New Risks
Energy - ETS household assistance package Decrease - 1 billion over the period 2008/09 to 2023/24
and 180 million between 2009/10 and 2010/11
-
Justice - Supreme Court Construction
Cost Pressures
Decrease Increase 8 to 12 capital and 2 to 4 operating between
2008/09 and 2012/13
-
New Zealand Defence Force -
Operationally Deployed Forces
Decrease - 10 to 15 operating per annum from 2009/10 54 operating
Transport - Canterbury Transport Project - Increase 211 capital 34 capital between 2008/09 and 2012/13
Transport - Penlink Roading Project - Increase 100 to 200 capital in 2009 -
Transport - Waterview Connection - Increase 1.5 billion capital between 2015 and 2050 -
Transport - Waterview Connection,
risk of not tolling project
Decrease Increase 500 capital between 2015 and 2050 -
Changed risks
Education - Early Childhood
Education Ratio Changes
Decrease - 35 per annum operating from 2011/12 -
Education - School Property Decrease Increase

Operating: 14 in 2009/10 rising to
89 in 2012/13

Capital: 153 in each of 2009/10 and
2010/11 and 123 per annum from 2011/12

Operating: 6 in 2008/09, 5 in
2009/10 and outyears

Capital: 71 in 2008/09, 3 in
2009/10 and 1 in 2010/11

Education - Schools Plus Decrease Increase 134 to 340 from 2011 40 in 2008/09
Education (Tertiary) - Tertiary
Education Capital Investment Fund
- Increase 123 capital between 2008/09 and 2011/12 12 in 2008/09
Education (Tertiary) - Wananga
Capital Injections
- Increase 59 capital in 2008/09 -
Health - Indicative Funding for
Budgets 2009 and 2010
Decrease - 750 in 2009/10, 1,498 in 2010/11,
1,484 in 2011/12 and 1,486 in 2009/10
750 per annum from 2008/09
New Zealand Defence Force - Sale
of Skyhawks and Aermacchi Trainers
Increase Decrease 90 capital in 2008/09 -
Police - Increases to Police Staff Decrease Increase 45 capital in 2009/10 41 per annum operating
and 10 capital in 2008/09
Unchanged Risks
Customs - Border Management
System (CusMod) Replacement
Decrease Increase 15 per annum operating and 105 capital 1 operating one-off to further
develop the business case
Economic Development - Venture
Investment Fund
- Increase 40 capital in 2009/10 and 2010/11 -
Education (Tertiary) - Vocational Training Decrease - 2.5 in 2008/09, 7.5 in 2009/10, 15 in
2010/11 and 20 in 2011/12 and outyears
-
Environment - Purchase of Kyoto
Compliant Emission Units
- Increase 500 capital -
Justice - Financial Action Taskforce Recommendations Decrease - 15 per annum -
Justice - Greater Auckland Region
Service Delivery Strategy
Decrease Increase 265, operating / capital split yet to be determined -
Maori Affairs - Maori Business Aotearoa New Zealand Increase Increase 40 capital in 2008/09 and 4 per annum
operating saving
-
New Zealand Defence Force -
Capital Injections
- Increase 210 over the forecast period 130 capital
Social Development - Youth
Court Sentencing Orders
Decrease Increase 12 operating and 4 capital -
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