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2 Fiscal Outlook (continued)

Debt

Gross Sovereign Issued Debt (GSID) (Excluding Settlement Cash)

GSID (excluding Settlement Cash)GSID (excluding Settlement Cash) represents the debt issued by the sovereign (ie, core Crown) and includes government stock held by the NZS Fund, ACC and EQC but excludes money deposited with the Reserve Bank by banks (Settlement Cash). Settlement Cash is excluded as it is financed from commercial banks and not from government funding.

(GSID) (Excluding Settlement Cash) is forecast to climb ...

Figure 2.9 - GSID (excluding Settlement Cash)
Figure 2.9 – GSID (excluding Settlement Cash).
Source:  The Treasury

The increase in GSID (excluding Settlement Cash) is primarily due to the need to raise finances to meet the residual cash deficits over the forecast period.

GSID (excluding Settlement Cash) is forecast to increase in both nominal terms (by around $22.3 billion) and as a percentage of GDP (by around 6.9%) over the forecast period. By the end of the forecast period in 2012/13 GSID (excluding Settlement Cash) is expected to be $53.7 billion or 24.3% of GDP.

The issuance of domestic bonds (market) for 2008/09 has been set at $4 billion and rises to $9.2 billion in 2012/13. After meeting debt maturities, the accumulated net bond issuance over the forecast period is $23 billion and this will translate into an increase in GSID (excluding Settlement Cash).

Table 2.11 - Net increase in domestic bonds
Year ended 30 June
$million
2009
Forecast
2010
Forecast
2011
Forecast
2012
Forecast
2013
Forecast
Total
Issue of domestic bonds (market) 4,048 6,070 9,114 9,189 9,216 37,637
Repayment of domestic bonds (market) (2,900) (4,097) (4,483) (4,518) (15,998)
Net increase in domestic bonds (market) 1,148 1,973 9,114 4,706 4,698 21,639
Issue of domestic bonds (non-market) 738 843 258 826 832 3,497
Repayment of domestic bonds (non-market) (451) (599) (585) (533) (2,168)
Net increase in domestic bonds (non-market)[4] 287 244 258 241 299 1,329
Net bond issuance 1,435 2,217 9,372 4,947 4,997 22,968

Source: The Treasury

Notes

  • [4]Non-market domestic bonds are bonds held by EQC.
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