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Pre-Election Economic and Fiscal Update 2008

2 Fiscal Outlook (continued)

Short-Term Outlook

Table 2.1 - Fiscal indicators[2]
Year ended 30 June
$million
2008
Actual
2009
Forecast
2010
Forecast
2011
Forecast
2012
Forecast
2013
Forecast

Revenue and expenses







Core Crown revenue (excl NZS Fund) 61,671 61,102 62,820 65,354 68,340 72,091
Core Crown expenses 56,997 62,359 65,849 68,891 72,252 76,157

Operating results







Total Crown OBEGAL 5,637 (64) (1,746) (2,481) (3,092) (3,374)
Total Crown OBEGAL (excl NZS Fund retained revenue) 5,586 (31) (1,665) (2,376) (2,962) (3,224)
Total Crown operating balance 2,385 1,909 374 (71) (396) (382)

Cash position







Core Crown residual cash 2,057 (5,909) (5,300) (6,603) (6,815) (7,307)

Debt







GSID (excl Settlement Cash) 31,390 32,087 34,400 43,821 48,626 53,666
Net core Crown debt (incl NZS Fund financial assets) (12,953) (10,430) (8,502) (5,799) (3,146) (380)
Net core Crown debt (19) 5,207 10,091 16,071 22,352 29,042

NZS Fund







NZS Fund net worth 14,212 17,440 20,638 24,175 28,024 32,158

Nominal GDP

180,077 184,390 190,713 199,881 210,205 220,574

% of GDP  

           

Revenue and expenses

           
Core Crown revenue (excl NZS Fund) 34.2 33.1 32.9 32.7 32.5 32.7
Core Crown expenses 31.7 33.8 34.5 34.5 34.4 34.5

Operating results

           
Total Crown OBEGAL 3.1 (0.0) (0.9) (1.2) (1.5) (1.5)
Total Crown OBEGAL (excl NZS Fund retained revenue) 3.1 (0.0) (0.9) (1.2) (1.4) (1.5)
Total Crown operating balance 1.3 1.0 0.2 (0.0) (0.2) (0.2)

Cash position

           
Core Crown residual cash 1.1 (3.2) (2.8) (3.3) (3.2) (3.3)

Debt

           
GSID (excl Settlement Cash) 17.4 17.4 18.0 21.9 23.1 24.3
Net core Crown debt (incl NZS Fund financial assets) (7.2) (5.7) (4.5) (2.9) (1.5) (0.2)
Net core Crown debt (0.0) 2.8 5.3 8.0 10.6 13.2

NZS Fund

           
NZS Fund net worth 7.9 9.5 10.8 12.1 13.3 14.6

Source: The Treasury

Core Crown vs Total Crown

The Fiscal Outlook chapter refers to both core Crown and total Crown results.

Core Crown includes Ministries, Departments, Offices of Parliament, the NZS Fund and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand.

Total Crown includes the core Crown, State-Owned Enterprises (SOEs) and Crown Entities (CEs).

Notes

  • [2]An historical trend series of the above indicators is available on page 122. The glossary on pages 118 to 121 includes a definition of these indicators.
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