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Pre-Election Economic and Fiscal Update 2008

How the Pre-election Update is organised

The 2008 Pre-election Update sets out the Treasury’s latest economic and fiscal forecasts for the current year and the next four years. The document is organised as follows:

  • A Statement of Responsibility from the Secretary to the Treasury and the Minister of Finance is included on page 1.
  • A Ministerial Statement from the Minister of Finance is provided on page 3.
  • The Executive Summary (page 5) provides a short summary of the economic and fiscal forecasts.
  • The Economic and Tax Outlook chapter (page 11) sets out the Treasury's economic and tax forecasts, including forecasts of major economic aggregates (eg, output, inflation, employment and the current account), and a statement of significant assumptions.
  • The Fiscal Outlook chapter (page 21) sets out the Treasury's fiscal forecasts, including forecasts of revenue and expenses, operating results, the cash position, debt and the NZS Fund. It also contains projections of key fiscal indicators for the ten years following the forecast period. In previous Pre-election Updates these ten-year projections, which by their nature are less precise than the forecasts, have been published separately on the Treasury website. They are now incorporated into the document to make this information easier to access and to provide a fuller picture.
  • The Risks and Scenarios chapter (page 49) describes some of the key risks to Treasury's central economic forecasts, and sets out two alternative scenarios for how the economy might develop.
  • The Specific Fiscal Risks chapter (page 57) sets out material risks and contingent liabilities that could have an impact on the fiscal forecasts if decisions being considered by ministers are taken, or if particular circumstances eventuate. This chapter also discloses commitments that have been made against future budget allowances.
  • The Generally Accepted Accounting Practice (GAAP) Series Tables chapter (page 83) provides a set of forecast financial statements, and a statement of accounting policies and assumptions.
  • The Core Crown Expense Tables chapter (page 113) provides information on core Crown expenses broken down into functional classifications; a glossary of terms; and a time series of fiscal and economic indicators.


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