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Half Year Economic and Fiscal Update 2016

Time Series of Fiscal and Economic Indicators

Fiscal Indicators
June years 2007
 Actual
2008
 Actual
2009
Actual
2010
Actual
2011
Actual
2012
Actual
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Forecast
2018
Forecast
2019
Forecast
2020
Forecast
2021
Forecast

$millions

   

Revenue and expenses

   
Core Crown tax revenue 53,477 56,747 54,681 50,744 51,557 55,081 58,651 61,563 66,636 70,445 74,224 78,028 81,970 85,820 89,910
Core Crown revenue 57,971 61,575 59,191 55,757 57,199 60,428 63,805 67,093 72,213 76,121 80,455 84,219 88,445 92,592 97,076
Core Crown expenses 53,764 56,753 63,711 63,554 70,099 68,939 69,962 71,174 72,363 73,929 78,276 80,112 82,407 85,215 87,783

Surpluses

   
Total Crown OBEGAL 5,860 5,637 (3,893) (6,315) (18,396) (9,240) (4,414) (2,802) 414 1,831 473 3,340 5,366 6,772 8,549
Total Crown operating balance 8,023 2,384 (10,505) (4,509) (13,360) (14,897) 6,925 2,939 5,771 (5,369) 3,795 6,049 8,213 9,900 11,917

Cash position

   
Core Crown residual cash 2,793 2,057 (8,639) (9,000) (13,343) (10,644) (5,742) (4,109) (1,827) (1,322) (2,192) (2,081) 1,439 3,030 2,584

Debt

   
Gross debt1 30,647 31,390 43,356 53,591 72,420 79,635 77,984 81,956 86,125 86,928 91,970 89,311 84,127 82,297 76,743
Gross debt incl RB settlement cash and bank bills 36,805 37,745 50,973 58,891 77,290 84,168 84,286 88,468 93,156 93,283 97,515 94,856 89,672 87,842 82,288
Net core Crown debt (incl NZS Fund)2 1,620 (2,676) 5,633 12,549 23,969 33,475 34,428 34,174 30,862 32,102 31,754 31,777 28,058 22,644 14,476
Net core Crown debt2 13,196 10,258 17,119 26,738 40,128 50,671 55,835 59,931 60,631 61,880 64,440 66,425 65,031 62,098 59,636

Net worth

   
Total Crown net worth 96,827 105,514 99,515 94,988 80,887 59,780 70,011 80,697 98,236 95,521 98,926 104,953 113,147 123,003 134,819
Total net worth attributable to the Crown 96,531 105,132 99,068 94,586 80,579 59,348 68,071 75,486 86,454 89,366 93,034 99,105 107,365 117,337 129,326
Nominal expenditure GDP (revised actuals) 175,456 189,138 189,523 196,698 205,861 215,348 218,817 235,033 241,597 251,760 264,760 279,480 293,391 305,502 317,405

% GDP

         

Revenue and expenses

   
Core Crown tax revenue 30.5 30.0 28.9 25.8 25.0 25.6 26.8 26.2 27.6 28.0 28.0 27.9 27.9 28.1 28.3
Core Crown revenue 33.0 32.6 31.2 28.3 27.8 28.1 29.2 28.5 29.9 30.2 30.4 30.1 30.1 30.3 30.6
Core Crown expenses 30.6 30.0 33.6 32.3 34.1 32.0 32.0 30.3 30.0 29.4 29.6 28.7 28.1 27.9 27.7

Surpluses

   
Total Crown OBEGAL 3.3 3.0 (2.1) (3.2) (8.9) (4.3) (2.0) (1.2) 0.2 0.7 0.2 1.2 1.8 2.2 2.7
Total Crown operating balance 4.6 1.3 (5.5) (2.3) (6.5) (6.9) 3.2 1.3 2.4 (2.1) 1.4 2.2 2.8 3.2 3.8

Cash position

   
Core Crown residual cash 1.6 1.1 (4.6) (4.6) (6.5) (4.9) (2.6) (1.7) (0.8) (0.5) (0.8) (0.7) 0.5 1.0 0.8

Debt

   
Gross debt1 17.5 16.6 22.9 27.2 35.2 37.0 35.6 34.9 35.6 34.5 34.7 32.0 28.7 26.9 24.2
Gross debt incl RB settlement cash and bank bills 21.0 20.0 26.9 29.9 37.5 39.1 38.5 37.6 38.6 37.1 36.8 33.9 30.6 28.8 25.9
Net core Crown debt (incl NZS Fund)2 0.9 (1.4) 3.0 6.4 11.6 15.5 15.7 14.5 12.8 12.8 12.0 11.4 9.6 7.4 4.6
Net core Crown debt2 7.5 5.4 9.0 13.6 19.5 23.5 25.5 25.5 25.1 24.6 24.3 23.8 22.2 20.3 18.8

Net worth

   
Total Crown net worth 55.2 55.8 52.5 48.3 39.3 27.8 32.0 34.3 40.7 37.9 37.4 37.6 38.6 40.3 42.5
Total net worth attributable to the Crown 55.0 55.6 52.3 48.1 39.1 27.6 31.1 32.1 35.8 35.5 35.1 35.5 36.6 38.4 40.7
  1. Excludes Reserve Bank settlement cash and bank bills.
  2. Excludes advances.
Economic Indicators
June Years
Annual average % change
2007
Actual
2008
Actual
2009
Actual
2010
Actual
2011
Actual
2012
Actual
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Forecast
2018
Forecast
2019
Forecast
2020
Forecast
2021
Forecast
Private consumption 3.7 2.9 -1.0 2.3 2.0 3.6 2.4 2.8 2.7 2.7 4.0 3.7 3.3 2.8 2.2
Public consumption 3.7 4.9 2.9 -0.4 2.7 0.6 0.3 2.8 2.1 1.7 2.6 1.5 1.0 1.1 1.0
TOTAL CONSUMPTION 3.7 3.4 0.0 1.6 2.2 2.8 1.9 2.8 2.5 2.4 3.7 3.2 2.7 2.4 1.9
Residential investment 2.5 -3.8 -21.9 -2.7 -2.6 9.8 13.2 14.9 8.6 8.2 14.3 7.8 2.1 -1.7 -0.2
Non-market investment 1.3 -8.1 39.9 -7.8 10.5 -30.1 12.8 2.8 26.9 12.8 2.1 3.4 -4.9 0.2 2.4
Market investment 2.1 12.6 -13.1 -8.7 8.9 11.8 -0.2 8.3 5.2 0.6 9.3 6.7 6.2 3.9 2.3
TOTAL INVESTMENT 2.1 6.5 -12.0 -6.8 5.6 7.2 3.9 9.3 7.8 3.1 10.0 6.8 4.3 2.1 1.6
Stock change (contribution to growth) -0.5 0.9 -1.4 0.9 -0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 -0.2 -0.4 -0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1
GROSS NATIONAL EXPENDITURE 2.7 4.9 -4.3 0.7 2.7 4.1 2.2 4.4 3.4 2.3 5.1 4.4 3.3 2.5 1.9
Exports 4.0 3.5 -2.9 4.8 2.2 2.1 3.1 0.1 5.7 5.1 1.4 1.9 3.0 2.7 3.2
Imports 1.7 11.6 -12.0 -1.0 11.4 4.4 2.6 9.0 6.6 1.2 5.7 5.0 4.0 2.8 1.9
EXPENDITURE ON GDP 3.4 2.5 -1.4 2.6 0.2 3.4 2.3 1.9 3.2 3.3 3.7 3.5 3.0 2.4 2.3
GDP (production measure) 3.2 2.0 -1.9 0.6 1.1 2.8 2.3 3.0 3.3 2.8 3.6 3.5 2.9 2.4 2.3
- annual % change 3.5 0.1 -2.1 2.3 1.1 2.6 2.5 3.6 2.4 3.6 3.5 3.4 2.6 2.3 2.3
Real GDP per capita 2.1 1.1 -2.7 -0.6 0.1 2.2 1.7 1.9 1.5 0.7 1.5 1.7 1.5 1.2 1.1
Nominal GDP (expenditure basis) 6.5 7.8 0.2 3.8 4.6 4.6 1.6 7.4 2.8 4.2 5.2 5.6 5.0 4.1 3.9
GDP deflator 3.0 5.2 1.6 1.1 4.4 1.2 -0.7 5.4 -0.4 0.9 1.4 2.0 2.0 1.7 1.6
Output gap (% deviation, June year average) 2.0 2.3 -0.8 -1.4 -2.1 -1.5 -1.4 -1.1 -0.8 -1.1 -0.6 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.0
Employment 1.6 1.3 -0.2 -1.3 1.5 0.9 0.2 3.2 3.2 2.3 4.8 1.6 1.5 1.1 0.9
Unemployment (% June quarter s.a.) 3.6 3.8 5.7 6.5 6.0 6.3 6.0 5.2 5.5 5.0 4.8 4.6 4.2 4.3 4.3
Wages (average ordinary-time hourly, ann % change) 4.4 5.4 4.7 1.1 3.0 2.9 2.1 2.6 2.8 2.1 1.6 2.2 2.8 3.1 3.0
CPI inflation (ann % change) 2.0 4.0 1.9 1.7 5.3 1.0 0.7 1.6 0.4 0.4 1.5 2.0 2.1 2.0 2.1
Merchandise terms of trade (SNA basis) 0.2 10.0 -4.3 -3.0 9.7 -1.7 -3.8 16.4 -4.8 -2.4 1.8 1.7 1.0 0.4 0.3
House prices (ann % change) 13.7 -4.4 -3.2 3.4 0.4 4.2 9.1 6.9 11.1 13.5 9.3 6.1 3.8 3.1 2.0
Current account balance - $billion -12.2 -13.4 -9.4 -3.5 -6.0 -7.7 -7.9 -6.0 -8.9 -7.3 -8.1 -10.7 -12.1 -13.5 -13.9
Current account balance - % of GDP -6.9 -7.1 -4.9 -1.8 -2.9 -3.6 -3.6 -2.5 -3.7 -2.9 -3.0 -3.8 -4.1 -4.4 -4.4
TWI (June quarter) 75.7 73.0 62.3 68.6 70.8 72.4 76.3 81.5 76.2 73.6 76.5 74.9 75.0 74.5 72.6
90-day bank bill rate (June quarter) 8.1 8.8 2.9 2.9 2.7 2.6 2.6 3.4 3.5 2.4 1.9 1.9 2.3 3.2 3.9
10-year bond rate (June quarter) 6.3 6.4 5.6 5.7 5.3 3.7 3.5 4.4 3.6 2.7 2.9 3.3 3.9 4.2 4.3

Data for 2017 and subsequently are forecasts. Data for 2016 and prior years are those that were available when the forecasts were finalised.

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