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Half Year Economic and Fiscal Update 2016

Statement of Specific Fiscal Risks

Summary Table

The matters listed below are disclosed as specific fiscal risks because they meet the rules for disclosure outlined before this Statement. Full descriptions of the risks listed below are set out in the next section. Where quantification is possible, this is included in the description of the risk.

The table below is ordered by portfolio and includes the title of the risk, its status and the type of risk. The status of the risk describes whether the risk is changed or unchanged since the 2016 Budget Economic and Fiscal Update or reflects a new matter. The type of risk highlights whether the risk impacts on revenue, operating expenses, or capital expenditure. Cross portfolio risks to the fiscal forecasts are outlined in a separate table.

Specific fiscal risks as at 21 November 2016
Specific fiscal risk by portfolio Status [17] Type of risk


Levies Unchanged Revenue
Non-earners Account Unchanged Expenses
Work-related Gradual Process Disease and Infection Unchanged Expenses

Building and Housing/Social Housing

Divestment and Development of Housing Changed Capital
Housing Infrastructure Fund New Capital
Social Housing Reform Unchanged Expenses
Tamaki Regeneration Project Unchanged Expenses


Additional Capacity to Address Prison Population New Expenses and Capital


Operating and Capital Costs Changed Expenses and Capital
Disposal of NZDF Assets Unchanged Expenses


School and ECE Funding Review New Expenses


Crown Overseas Properties Unchanged Capital
Goodwill on Acquisition Unchanged Expenses

Greater Christchurch Regeneration

Christchurch Central Recovery Plan - Anchor Projects Unchanged Expenses
EQC Changed Expenses
Residential Red Zone Unchanged Expenses
Southern Response Earthquake Services Support New Expenses

Internal Affairs

Fire Services Levy Unchanged Revenue

Parliamentary Agencies

Parliamentary Office Accommodation Unchanged Capital

Primary Industries

Investment in Water Infrastructure Unchanged Capital


Cash Held in Tax Pools Unchanged Capital
Income Tax and Family Assistance Changes New Revenue
Potential Tax Policy Changes Changed Revenue
Student Loans Unchanged Expenses
Transformation and Technology Renewal Changed Expenses

Social Development

Transformation to Ministry for Vulnerable Children, Oranga Tamariki Changed Expenses


Auckland City Rail Link New Capital
Auckland Transport Alignment Plan New Capital
Regional State Highways Unchanged Capital
Support for KiwiRail Unchanged Capital

Treaty Negotiations

Government Response to Wai 262 Unchanged Expenses
Relativity Clause Unchanged Expenses
Treaty Settlement Forecasts Unchanged Expenses
Cross Portfolio Specific Fiscal Risks Status Type of Risk
Agency Capital Intentions Unchanged Capital
Budget Operating Initiatives Unchanged Expenses
Kaikōura Earthquakes New Expenses and Capital
Pay Equity and Caregiver Employment Conditions Changed Expenses
State Sector Employment Agreements Unchanged Expenses
Services Funded by Third Parties Unchanged Revenue
Unexpected Maintenance for Crown-owned buildings Unchanged Capital


  • [17] Unchanged - risks where the nature and/or scale of the risk has not changed substantively since the previous Economic and Fiscal Update.

  • Changed - risks where the nature and/or scale of the risk has changed substantively since the previous Economic and Fiscal Update.
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