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Half Year Economic and Fiscal Update 2016

Statement of Specific Fiscal Risks

Summary Table

The matters listed below are disclosed as specific fiscal risks because they meet the rules for disclosure outlined before this Statement. Full descriptions of the risks listed below are set out in the next section. Where quantification is possible, this is included in the description of the risk.

The table below is ordered by portfolio and includes the title of the risk, its status and the type of risk. The status of the risk describes whether the risk is changed or unchanged since the 2016 Budget Economic and Fiscal Update or reflects a new matter. The type of risk highlights whether the risk impacts on revenue, operating expenses, or capital expenditure. Cross portfolio risks to the fiscal forecasts are outlined in a separate table.

Specific fiscal risks as at 21 November 2016
Specific fiscal risk by portfolio Status [17] Type of risk

ACC

   
Levies Unchanged Revenue
Non-earners Account Unchanged Expenses
Work-related Gradual Process Disease and Infection Unchanged Expenses

Building and Housing/Social Housing

   
Divestment and Development of Housing Changed Capital
Housing Infrastructure Fund New Capital
Social Housing Reform Unchanged Expenses
Tamaki Regeneration Project Unchanged Expenses

Corrections

   
Additional Capacity to Address Prison Population New Expenses and Capital

Defence

   
Operating and Capital Costs Changed Expenses and Capital
Disposal of NZDF Assets Unchanged Expenses

Education

   
School and ECE Funding Review New Expenses

Finance

   
Crown Overseas Properties Unchanged Capital
Goodwill on Acquisition Unchanged Expenses

Greater Christchurch Regeneration

   
Christchurch Central Recovery Plan - Anchor Projects Unchanged Expenses
EQC Changed Expenses
Residential Red Zone Unchanged Expenses
Southern Response Earthquake Services Support New Expenses

Internal Affairs

   
Fire Services Levy Unchanged Revenue

Parliamentary Agencies

   
Parliamentary Office Accommodation Unchanged Capital

Primary Industries

   
Investment in Water Infrastructure Unchanged Capital

Revenue

   
Cash Held in Tax Pools Unchanged Capital
Income Tax and Family Assistance Changes New Revenue
Potential Tax Policy Changes Changed Revenue
Student Loans Unchanged Expenses
Transformation and Technology Renewal Changed Expenses

Social Development

   
Transformation to Ministry for Vulnerable Children, Oranga Tamariki Changed Expenses

Transport

   
Auckland City Rail Link New Capital
Auckland Transport Alignment Plan New Capital
Regional State Highways Unchanged Capital
Support for KiwiRail Unchanged Capital

Treaty Negotiations

   
Government Response to Wai 262 Unchanged Expenses
Relativity Clause Unchanged Expenses
Treaty Settlement Forecasts Unchanged Expenses
Cross Portfolio Specific Fiscal Risks Status Type of Risk
Agency Capital Intentions Unchanged Capital
Budget Operating Initiatives Unchanged Expenses
Kaikōura Earthquakes New Expenses and Capital
Pay Equity and Caregiver Employment Conditions Changed Expenses
State Sector Employment Agreements Unchanged Expenses
Services Funded by Third Parties Unchanged Revenue
Unexpected Maintenance for Crown-owned buildings Unchanged Capital

Notes

  • [17] Unchanged - risks where the nature and/or scale of the risk has not changed substantively since the previous Economic and Fiscal Update.

  • Changed - risks where the nature and/or scale of the risk has changed substantively since the previous Economic and Fiscal Update.
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