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Half Year Economic and Fiscal Update 2015

Core Crown Expense Tables

Core Crown Expense Tables
($millions) 2011
Actual
2012
Actual
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Forecast
2017
Forecast
2018
Forecast
2019
Forecast
2020
Forecast
Social security and welfare 21,724 21,956 22,459 23,026 23,523 24,325 25,209 26,007 26,746 27,865
GSF pension expenses 305 192 278 282 358 265 206 208 219 230
Health 13,753 14,160 14,498 14,898 15,058 15,601 15,616 15,668 15,735 15,733
Education 11,650 11,654 12,504 12,300 12,879 13,222 13,316 13,332 13,315 13,431
Core government services 5,563 5,428 4,294 4,502 4,134 4,976 4,782 4,864 4,850 4,814
Law and order 3,312 3,338 3,394 3,463 3,515 3,635 3,530 3,518 3,510 3,513
Defence 1,809 1,736 1,804 1,811 1,961 2,079 2,146 2,110 2,117 2,117
Transport and communications 2,281 2,232 2,255 2,237 2,291 2,265 2,321 2,404 2,435 2,420
Economic and industrial services 2,542 2,073 1,978 2,058 2,228 2,196 2,248 2,246 2,186 2,265
Heritage, culture and recreation 741 863 804 842 778 828 797 791 777 789
Primary services 706 648 659 676 667 822 672 655 672 661
Housing and community development 943 ( 46) 283 347 320 619 506 484 477 475
Environmental protection 1,225 769 530 533 723 637 581 625 627 596
Other 479 425 603 579 145 539 429 488 484 484
Finance costs 3,066 3,511 3,619 3,620 3,783 3,656 3,946 4,051 4,220 4,331
Forecast for future new spending1  ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  271 1,123 3,681 5,365 6,936
Top-down expense adjustment  ..   ..   ..   ..   ..  ( 1,025) ( 600) ( 475) ( 450) ( 500)
Core Crown expenses 70,099 68,939 69,962 71,174 72,363 74,911 76,828 80,657 83,285 86,160
  1. The classifications of the functions of the Government reflect current approved baselines. Forecast new operating spending is shown as a separate line item in the above analysis and will be allocated to functions of the Government once decisions are made in future Budgets.

Source: The Treasury

Table 6.1 - Social security and welfare expenses
($millions) 2011
Actual
2012
Actual
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Forecast
2017
Forecast
2018
Forecast
2019
Forecast
2020
Forecast
Welfare benefits (see below) 19,781 20,375 20,789 21,187 21,680 22,503 23,501 24,306 25,035 26,138
Social rehabilitation and compensation 119 81 107 173 142 151 157 163 176 176
Departmental expenses 1,127 1,122 1,168 1,204 1,319 1,370 1,268 1,256 1,255 1,270
Child support impairment ..  ..  ..  ..  ..  5 5 5 5 5
Other non-departmental expenses1 697 378 395 462 382 296 278 277 275 276
Social security and welfare expenses 21,724 21,956 22,459 23,026 23,523 24,325 25,209 26,007 26,746 27,865
  1. Other non-departmental expenses and other expenses include costs associated with the Canterbury earthquakes. This is most representative in the 2011 year. From 2016 some non-departmental expenses spending has been reclassified to community services in housing and community development expenses.

Source: The Treasury

Table 6.2 - Welfare benefit expenses
($millions) 2011
Actual
2012
Actual
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Forecast
2017
Forecast
2018
Forecast
2019
Forecast
2020
Forecast
New Zealand Superannuation 8,830 9,584 10,235 10,913 11,591 12,223 12,860 13,522 14,234 15,072
Jobseeker Support and Emergency Benefit1 ..  ..  ..  1,691 1,684 1,676 1,718 1,678 1,597 1,591
Supported living payment1 ..  ..  ..  1,422 1,515 1,526 1,538 1,545 1,570 1,602
Sole parent support1 ..  ..  ..  1,222 1,186 1,157 1,254 1,253 1,242 1,250
Domestic Purposes Benefit1 1,757 1,811 1,738 63 ..  ..  ..  ..  ..  .. 
Invalid's Benefit1 1,306 1,325 1,330 52 ..  ..  ..  ..  ..  .. 
Sickness Benefit1 743 775 782 29 ..  ..  ..  ..  ..  .. 
Unemployment Benefit 943 883 812 29 ..  ..  ..  ..  ..  .. 
Family Tax Credit 2,130 2,071 2,018 1,965 1,854 1,834 1,851 1,948 1,991 2,100
Other working for families tax credits 616 599 575 567 549 567 645 638 629 628
Accommodation Assistance 1,197 1,195 1,177 1,146 1,129 1,154 1,199 1,222 1,206 1,209
Income-Related Rents 553 580 611 660 703 778 818 872 927 1,025
Disability Assistance 409 401 384 379 377 378 380 383 383 387
Benefits paid in Australia 40 37 22 19 15 40 ..  ..  ..  .. 
Paid Parental Leave 154 158 165 165 180 233 268 275 282 290
Childcare Assistance 188 188 186 186 183 188 218 216 218 220
Veterans Support Entitlement2 135 128 123 119 115 107 98 94 90 87
Veteran's Pension 178 177 171 165 178 186 177 168 160 152
Other benefits 602 463 460 395 421 456 477 492 506 525
Benefit expenses 19,781 20,375 20,789 21,187 21,680 22,503 23,501 24,306 25,035 26,138

Source: The Treasury

Table 6.2 - Welfare benefit expenses (continued)
Beneficiary numbers
(Thousands)
2011
Actual
2012
Actual
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Forecast
2017
Forecast
2018
Forecast
2019
Forecast
2020
Forecast
New Zealand Superannuation 561 585 612 640 665 691 719 744 770 797
Jobseeker Support and Emergency Benefit1 ..  ..  ..  138 133 131 133 129 120 117
Supported living payment1 ..  ..  ..  96 98 98 98 98 98 98
Sole parent support1 ..  ..  ..  78 72 68 69 68 66 65
Domestic Purposes Benefit1 114 114 109 ..  ..  ..  ..  ..  ..  .. 
Invalid's Benefit1 88 87 87 ..  ..  ..  ..  ..  ..  .. 
Sickness Benefit1 60 60 60 ..  ..  ..  ..  ..  ..  .. 
Unemployment Benefit1 80 73 67 ..  ..  ..  ..  ..  ..  .. 
Accommodation Assistance 320 311 305 297 292 297 308 313 308 308

Source: Ministry of Social Development

  1. From July 2013, changes to the benefit system and existing benefit categories took place. Three new categories of benefit; Supported living payment, Sole parent support and Jobseeker support; have replaced the following existing categories: Domestic Purposes Benefit, Invalid's Benefit, Unemployment Benefit, Sickness Benefit and Widow's Benefit. Owing to the changes, there is no historical data for the new benefit categories and no forecast data for the previous categories beyond July 2013.
  2. From 2015, War Disablement Pensions have been renamed Veterans Support Entitlements.
Table 6.3 - Health expenses
($millions) 2011
Actual
2012
Actual
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Forecast
2017
Forecast
2018
Forecast
2019
Forecast
2020
Forecast
Departmental outputs 199 186 171 183 190 187 186 185 185 185
Health services purchasing (see below) 12,530 13,018 13,348 13,648 13,937 14,343 14,288 14,261 14,249 14,247
Other non-departmental outputs 120 119 234 330 312 347 343 354 367 367
Health payments to ACC 849 744 715 694 587 693 769 838 905 905
Other expenses 55 93 30 43 32 31 30 30 29 29
Health expenses 13,753 14,160 14,498 14,898 15,058 15,601 15,616 15,668 15,735 15,733

Source: The Treasury

Table 6.4 - Health services purchasing
($millions) 2011
Actual
2012
Actual
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Forecast
2017
Forecast
2018
Forecast
2019
Forecast
2020
Forecast
Payments to District Health Boards 11,133 11,542 11,946 12,165 12,414 12,772 12,768 12,749 12,737 12,735
National disability support services 971 1,029 1,028 1,087 1,126 1,158 1,155 1,153 1,153 1,153
Public health services purchasing 426 447 374 396 397 413 365 359 359 359
Health services purchasing 12,530 13,018 13,348 13,648 13,937 14,343 14,288 14,261 14,249 14,247

Source: The Treasury

Table 6.5 - Education expenses
($millions) 2011
Actual
2012
Actual
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Forecast
2017
Forecast
2018
Forecast
2019
Forecast
2020
Forecast
Early childhood education 1,340 1,355 1,436 1,545 1,644 1,708 1,763 1,798 1,850 1,909
Primary and secondary schools (see below) 5,354 5,443 5,590 5,550 5,773 6,046 6,064 6,042 5,983 6,015
Tertiary funding (see below) 3,991 3,795 4,370 4,027 4,272 4,271 4,317 4,320 4,322 4,349
Departmental expenses 923 988 1,039 1,107 1,129 1,111 1,094 1,098 1,095 1,094
Other education expenses 42 73 69 71 61 86 78 74 65 64
Education expenses 11,650 11,654 12,504 12,300 12,879 13,222 13,316 13,332 13,315 13,431

Source: The Treasury

Table 6.5 - Education expenses (continued)
Number of places provided1 2011
Actual
2012
Actual
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Forecast
2017
Forecast
2018
Forecast
2019
Forecast
2020
Forecast
Early childhood education 159,997 166,434 174,782 183,843 193,862 196,964 200,974 202,455 206,764 212,342
  1. Full-time equivalent based on 1,000 funded child hours per calendar year. Note that historical place numbers have been revised so may differ from previous published Economic and Fiscal Update numbers.

Source: Ministry of Education

Table 6.6 - Primary and secondary schools

($millions)

2011
Actual
2012
Actual
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Forecast
2017
Forecast
2018
Forecast
2019
Forecast
2020
Forecast
Primary 2,731 2,771 2,845 2,812 2,920 3,064 3,084 3,070 3,038 3,050
Secondary 2,051 2,085 2,148 2,146 2,229 2,296 2,295 2,283 2,264 2,282
School transport 163 172 175 177 186 187 190 197 192 192
Special needs support 310 323 332 322 336 394 396 396 391 393
Professional development 90 85 84 87 98 100 94 91 92 92
Schooling improvement 9 7 6 6 4 5 5 5 6 6
Primary and secondary education expenses 5,354 5,443 5,590 5,550 5,773 6,046 6,064 6,042 5,983 6,015

Source: The Treasury

Table 6.6 - Primary and secondary schools (continued)
Number of places provided1 2011
Actual
2012
Actual
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Forecast
2017
Forecast
2018
Forecast
2019
Forecast
2020
Forecast
Primary 489,275 489,799 493,025 497,765 507,132 513,267 516,456 518,065 517,510 515,769
Secondary 274,518 271,078 267,627 266,734 265,557 274,163 273,775 273,228 274,268 277,882
  1. These are snapshots based as at 1 July for primary year levels (years 1 to 8) and 1 March for secondary year levels (years 9 to 13). These numbers exclude special school rolls, health camps, hospital schools and home schooling (prior published tables included special school rolls).

These estimates include a new entrant adjustment to make provision for the number of new entrants likely to be enrolled between 1 March and 10 October. Actual numbers have been restated to include this adjustment so may differ from previous published Economic and Fiscal Update numbers.

Source: Ministry of Education

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