The Treasury

Global Navigation

Personal tools

Government
Publication

Half Year Economic and Fiscal Update 2013

Alternative Scenarios

The following scenarios show how the economy might evolve if some of the key judgements in the main forecast are altered (Table 3.1). The scenarios are only illustrative in that they are two of a large number of possible examples, and do not represent upper or lower bounds for the forecasts, with more extreme paths possible. They represent what are assessed to be key risks to the Half Year Update forecast and illustrate the impact of relatively small changes in the assumptions on key economic and fiscal variables. Although not the most likely outcome, there is a realistic prospect that these scenarios could occur.

Table 3.1 - Summary of key economic and fiscal variables for main forecast and scenarios
March years 2013
Actual
2014
Forecast
2015
Forecast
2016
Forecast
2017
Forecast
2018
Forecast
Real GDP (annual average % change)            
Main forecast 2.7 2.7 3.6 2.7 2.0 2.2
Stronger cyclical growth 2.7 3.2 4.4 2.8 1.6 1.8
Slower emerging Asia growth 2.7 2.7 3.4 2.5 1.8 2.0
Unemployment rate1
Main forecast 6.2 5.8 5.6 5.4 5.2 4.7
Stronger cyclical growth 6.2 5.7 5.3 5.1 4.9 4.6
Slower emerging Asia growth 6.2 5.8 5.8 5.7 5.4 5.0
Nominal GDP (annual average % change)
Main forecast 2.4 6.5 4.9 5.2 4.0 3.7
Stronger cyclical growth 2.4 6.9 6.1 5.7 3.9 3.6
Slower emerging Asia growth 2.4 6.5 4.1 5.0 3.8 3.4
Current account balance (% of GDP)
Main forecast -4.5 -4.2 -5.5 -6.3 -6.5 -6.4
Stronger cyclical growth -4.5 -4.2 -5.8 -7.2 -7.5 -7.2
Slower emerging Asia growth -4.5 -4.2 -6.4 -7.2 -7.1 -7.1
90-day bank bill rate2
Main forecast 2.7 2.7 3.6 4.4 4.9 5.2
Stronger cyclical growth 2.7 2.9 4.7 5.8 6.0 6.1
Slower emerging Asia growth 2.7 2.7 3.3 3.7 4.5 5.0
Total Crown OBEGAL (% of GDP)3
Main forecast -2.1 -1.0 0.0 0.7 1.2 2.1
Stronger cyclical growth -2.1 -0.8 0.6 1.6 2.2 3.0
Slower emerging Asia growth -2.1 -1.0 -0.2 0.3 0.7 1.5
Core Crown net debt (% of GDP)3
Main forecast 26.2 26.3 26.5 25.8 24.4 22.3
Stronger cyclical growth 26.2 25.9 25.2 23.5 21.2 18.4
Slower emerging Asia growth 26.2 26.4 26.9 26.6 25.7 24.3

Notes:

  1. March quarter, seasonally adjusted.
  2. March quarter average.
  3. June years.

Sources: Statistics New Zealand, the Treasury, Reserve Bank

Page top