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Half Year Economic and Fiscal Update 2012

Statement of Specific Fiscal Risks

Summary Table

The matters listed below are disclosed as specific fiscal risks because they meet the rules for disclosure outlined after this Statement. Full descriptions of the risks listed below are set out in the next section.

Specific fiscal risks as at 26 November 2012 Status [11] Value of risk

Potential policy decisions affecting revenue

ACC - Funding Policy Review New Unquantified
ACC - Levies Unchanged Unquantified
Revenue - Income-sharing Tax Credits Unchanged $500 million per annum
Services Funded by Third Party Revenue Unchanged Unquantified

Potential policy decisions affecting expenses but expected to be funded from reprioritisation or Budget allowances

ACC - Work-related Gradual Process Disease and Infection Changed Unquantified
Canterbury Earthquake - Christchurch City Council/ Crown Cost Sharing New Unquantified
Education - Early Childhood Education Funding New Unquantified
Government Response to Wai 262 Unchanged Unquantified
Health - Payment of Family Caregivers Changed Unquantified
Housing - Reform of Social Housing Unchanged Unquantified
Revenue - KiwiSaver Auto-enrolment  Unchanged $350 to $550 million operating expenses
Revenue - Transformation and Technology Renewal Unchanged Unquantified
Social Development - Disability Allowance Savings New Unquantified
Social Development - Vulnerable Children White Paper New Unquantified
Social Development - Welfare Reform Costs Changed Unquantified
Social Development - Welfare Reform Forecast Benefit Savings Changed Unquantified
State Sector Employment Agreements Unchanged Unquantified

Potential capital decisions but expected to be funded from the existing Crown balance sheet, including the Future Investment Fund

Canterbury Earthquake - Crown Christchurch Investment New Unquantified
Departmental Capital Intentions Unchanged Unquantified
Earthquake Strengthening for Crown-owned Buildings Unchanged Unquantified
Finance - Crown Overseas Properties Unchanged $150 million capital expenditure
Finance - Investment into NZ Post Group (Kiwibank) Unchanged Unquantified
Primary Industries - Investment in Water Infrastructure Unchanged Unquantified
Transport - Support for KiwiRail Changed Up to $333 million capital expenditure

Matters dependent on external factors

ACC - Non-earners' Account Unchanged Unquantified
Canterbury Earthquake - EQC Unchanged Unquantified
Canterbury Earthquake - Residential Red Zone New Unquantified
Canterbury Earthquake - Southern Response Earthquake Services Support Package Changed Unquantified
Communications - Potential Impairment in Value of Broadband Investment Unchanged Unquantified
Communications - Radio Spectrum Income Following the Digital Switchover New Unquantified
Defence Force - Potential Rationalisation, Revaluation and Disposal of NZDF Assets Unchanged Unquantified
Energy - Crown Revenue from Petroleum Royalties Changed Unquantified
Environment - Kyoto Protocol Obligations Unchanged Unquantified
Environment - Post-2012 International Climate Change Obligations Unchanged Unquantified
Finance - Goodwill on Acquisition Changed Unquantified
Finance - Government Commitments to International Financial Institutions Unchanged Unquantified
Finance - Sale of Part of the Crown's Shareholding in Five Companies Unchanged Unquantified
Housing - Divestment of Housing New Unquantified
Revenue - Cash Held in Tax Pools Unchanged Unquantified
Treaty Negotiations - Treaty Settlement Forecast Unchanged Unquantified
Treaty Negotiations - Relativity Clause Unchanged Unquantified

Notes

  • [11]Unchanged - risks that have not materially changed since the previous Economic and Fiscal Update.Changed - risks that have changed substantively from the previous Economic and Fiscal Update.New - risks that have not been disclosed in the previous Economic and Fiscal Update.
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