Cost of Canterbury Earthquakes to the Crown
The Government is making a significant contribution to the rebuild in Canterbury, with latest estimates for the total cost to the Crown at $13.1 billion.
While the Canterbury Earthquake Recovery Fund remains at $5.5 billion, total estimates of existing policies are now expected to fully utilise the Fund. Of the $5.5 billion, the expected costs of policy decisions total $4.7 billion and $0.8 billion is set aside as an estimation contingency to reflect the significant uncertainty.
With the Fund fully allocated, new policy decisions, or increases in costs above the estimation contingency that are not managed within existing budget allowances, will adversely affect the Crown's fiscal position.
There remains a significant risk that the final cost to the Crown will exceed the $13.1 billion cost estimate included in these forecasts. The Specific Fiscal Risks chapter includes discussion on the risks associated with the Canterbury earthquakes (page 61).
The tables below show the latest estimates of the net impact of the earthquakes included in these forecasts.
|
Year ending 30 June $millions |
2011 Actual |
2012 Actual |
2013
Forecast |
2014 Forecast |
2015 Forecast |
2016 Forecast |
2017
Forecast |
Total HYEFU |
Total
BEFU |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Local infrastructure | 160 | 721 | 214 | 152 | 152 | 100 | 50 | 1,549 | 1,643 |
| Welfare support | 220 | 23 | 35 | 23 | 6 | - | - | 307 | 233 |
| Southern Response support package | 355 | 156 | (98) | (41) | (33) | (37) | (2) | 300 | 148 |
| Land zoning | 653 | 258 | 199 | 10 | - | - | - | 1,120 | 1,067 |
| Other costs | 205 | 121 | 589 | 593 | (41) | (37) | 8 | 1,438 | 852 |
| Estimation contingency | - | - | 793 | - | - | - | - | 793 | - |
| Yet to be allocated | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 1,564 |
| Canterbury Earthquake Recovery Fund | 1,593 | 1,279 | 1,732 | 737 | 84 | 26 | 56 | 5,507 | 5,507 |
| EQC | 7,471 | 662 | (164) | (255) | (68) | (114) | - | 7,532 | 7,445 |
| Other SOEs and CEs | 23 | (41) | 24 | (116) | 80 | 57 | 22 | 49 | 23 |
| Total Crown | 9,087 | 1,900 | 1,592 | 366 | 96 | (31) | 78 | 13,088 | 12,975 |
Source: The Treasury
|
Year ending 30 June
$millions |
2011 Actual |
2012 Actual |
2013 Forecast |
2014 Forecast |
2015 Forecast |
2016 Forecast |
2017
Forecast |
Total HYEFU |
Total BEFU |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Canterbury Earthquake Recovery Fund | 508 | 1,312 | 1,399 | 1,027 | 488 | 602 | 171 | 5,507 | 5,507 |
| EQC | 1,178 | 2,231 | 817 | 1,729 | 1,006 | 571 | - | 7,532 | 7,445 |
| Other SOEs and CEs | 23 | (18) | (2) | (142) | 28 | 79 | 31 | (1) | 23 |
| Total Crown | 1,709 | 3,525 | 2,214 | 2,614 | 1,522 | 1,252 | 202 | 13,038 | 12,975 |
Source: The Treasury
A discussion about the total economic impact of the Canterbury earthquakes can be found in the Economic Outlook chapter on page 13.
