The Treasury

Global Navigation

Personal tools

Government
Publication

Half Year Economic and Fiscal Update 2012

Fiscal Outlook

Key Points

  • Tax revenue is forecast to grow at twice the rate of core Crown expenses as the economy grows and the Government continues to apply fiscal constraint.
  • Operating deficits narrow over the next two years and return to surplus in 2014/15.
  • Net core Crown debt peaks at 29.5% of GDP in 2014/15 and 2015/16.
  • Operating surpluses begin to rebuild the fiscal buffer against future shocks.
Table 2.1 - Fiscal indicators
Year ended 30 June 2012
Actual
2013
Forecast
2014
Forecast
2015
Forecast
2016
Forecast
2017
Forecast

$billions

Core Crown tax revenue 55.1 57.4 61.9 65.6 68.9 71.9
Core Crown expenses 69.1 72.0 71.8 73.7 75.6 78.0
Total Crown OBEGAL1 (9.2) (7.3) (2.0) 0.1 1.4 2.0
Total Crown OBEGAL (excluding earthquake expenses) (7.3) (6.0) (2.1) 0.2 1.4 2.1
Total Crown operating balance (14.9) (3.3) 0.0 2.1 3.6 4.4
Core Crown residual cash (10.6) (9.8) (6.9) (4.6) (3.3) (2.9)
Net core Crown debt2 50.7 60.0 66.7 70.7 73.5 75.9
Gross debt3 79.6 80.2 88.4 86.3 90.1 95.9
Net worth attributable to the Crown 59.3 56.3 56.5 58.8 62.6 67.0

% of GDP

Core Crown tax revenue 26.5 26.6 27.0 27.4 27.7 27.7
Core Crown expenses 33.2 33.3 31.4 30.8 30.3 30.1
Total Crown OBEGAL1 (4.4) (3.4) (0.9) 0.0 0.6 0.8
Total Crown OBEGAL (excluding earthquake expenses) (3.5) (2.8) (0.9) 0.1 0.6 0.8
Total Crown operating balance (7.2) (1.5) 0.0 0.9 1.4 1.7
Core Crown residual cash (5.1) (4.5) (3.0) (1.9) (1.3) (1.1)
Net core Crown debt2 24.3 27.8 29.2 29.5 29.5 29.3
Gross debt3 38.2 37.1 38.7 36.0 36.2 37.0
Net worth attributable to the Crown 28.5 26.1 24.7 24.6 25.1 25.9

Notes:

  1. Operating balance before gains and losses
  2. Net core Crown debt excluding the New Zealand Superannuation Fund (NZS Fund) and advances
  3. Gross sovereign-issued debt excluding Reserve Bank bills and settlement cash

A glossary and a longer time series for these indicators are provided on pages 120 and 126 respectively.

Source: The Treasury

Page top