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Half Year Economic and Fiscal Update 2010

Time Series of Fiscal and Economic Indicators

Fiscal Indicators
June Years 1999
 Actual
2000
 Actual
2001
 Actual
2002
 Actual
2003
 Actual
2004
 Actual
2005
 Actual
2006
 Actual
2007
 Actual
2008
 Actual
2009
Actual
2010
Actual
2011
Forecast
2012
Forecast
2013
Forecast
2014
Forecast
2015
Forecast

$ millions

 

Revenue and Expenses

 
Core Crown revenue 32,880 34,946 37,842 39,945 43,440 46,219 51,045 55,735 58,211 61,819 59,482 56,216 58,446 63,438 67,814 72,280 76,590
Core Crown expenses 33,939 34,829 36,559 37,513 39,897 41,882 44,895 49,320 54,003 56,997 64,002 64,013 70,560 71,404 74,233 75,905 78,626
Surpluses  
Total Crown OBEGAL 128 594 1,422 2,471 4,366 5,573 7,075 7,091 5,860 5,637 (3,893) (6,315) (11,098) (5,964) (4,371) (1,501) 39
Total Crown operating balance 1,705 1,405 1,208 2,286 1,621 7,309 5,931 9,542 8,023 2,384 (10,505) (4,509) (9,116) (4,120) (2,259) 907 2,718

Cash Position

 
Core Crown residual cash 2,048 (386) 349 216 1,217 520 3,104 2,985 2,877 2,057 (8,639) (9,000) (15,602) (9,693) (8,135) (6,112) (4,877)

Debt

 
Gross debt1 37,307 36,580 37,194 36,650 36,617 36,017 35,478 33,903 30,647 31,390 43,356 53,591 67,400 72,551 75,077 84,472 84,321
Gross debt incl RB settlement cash and bank bills 37,307 36,580 37,194 36,650 36,617 36,017 35,478 35,867 36,805 37,745 50,973 58,891 73,059 78,210 80,736 90,131 89,980
Net core Crown debt (incl NZS Fund)2 25,923 25,895 24,908 24,773 22,647 19,902 13,324 6,302 1,620 (2,676) 5,633 12,549 26,293 34,532 41,048 45,650 48,697
Net core Crown debt2 25,923 25,895 24,908 25,388 24,531 23,858 19,879 16,163 13,380 10,258 17,119 26,738 42,078 51,664 59,624 65,758 70,469

Net Worth

 
Total Crown net worth 10,121 12,605 15,450 22,825 28,012 39,595 54,240 83,971 96,827 105,514 99,515 94,988 85,809 81,704 79,461 80,384 83,124

% GDP

 

Revenue and Expenses

 
Core Crown revenue 31.0 31.1 31.6 31.4 32.3 31.9 33.1 34.5 33.9 33.9 32.2 29.7 28.9 29.7 30.1 30.5 30.9
Core Crown expenses 32.0 31.0 30.6 29.5 29.7 28.9 29.1 30.5 31.5 31.2 34.7 33.8 34.9 33.4 33.0 32.1 31.7

Surpluses

 
Total Crown OBEGAL 0.1 0.5 1.2 1.9 3.3 3.8 4.6 4.4 3.4 3.1 (2.1) (3.3) (5.5) (2.8) (1.9) (0.6) 0.0
Total Crown operating balance 1.6 1.3 1.0 1.8 1.2 5.0 3.8 5.9 4.7 1.3 (5.7) (2.4) (4.5) (1.9) (1.0) 0.4 1.1

Cash Position

 
Core Crown residual cash 1.9 (0.3) 0.3 0.2 0.9 0.4 2.0 1.8 1.7 1.1 (4.7) (4.8) (7.7) (4.5) (3.6) (2.6) (2.0)

Debt

 
Gross debt1 35.2 32.6 31.1 28.8 27.3 24.9 23.0 21.0 17.9 17.2 23.5 28.3 33.3 34.0 33.3 35.7 34.0
Gross debt incl RB settlement cash and bank bills 35.2 32.6 31.1 28.8 27.3 24.9 23.0 22.2 21.4 20.7 27.6 31.1 36.1 36.6 35.8 38.1 36.3
Net core Crown debt (incl NZS Fund)2 24.5 23.1 20.8 19.5 16.9 13.7 8.6 3.9 0.9 (1.5) 3.1 6.6 13.0 16.2 18.2 19.3 19.7
Net core Crown debt2 24.5 23.1 20.8 20.0 18.3 16.5 12.9 10.0 7.8 5.6 9.3 14.1 20.8 24.2 26.5 27.8 28.5

Net Worth

 
Total Crown net worth 9.6 11.2 12.9 18.0 20.9 27.3 35.2 52.0 56.4 57.8 53.9 50.2 42.4 38.3 35.3 34.0 33.6

1 Excludes Reserve Bank settlement cash and bank bills

2 Excludes advances

Economic Indicators

March Years
Annual average % change
1999
Actual
2000
 Actual
2001
 Actual
2002
 Actual
2003
 Actual
2004
 Actual
2005
 Actual
2006
 Actual
2007
 Actual
2008
 Actual
2009
 Actual
2010
 Actual
2011
Forecast
2012
Forecast
2013
Forecast
2014
Forecast
2015
Forecast
Private consumption 3.0 3.2 1.4 2.7 4.8 6.4 4.6 4.5 2.3 3.2 -1.2 0.6 2.0 2.2 2.5 2.5 2.5
Public consumption -0.4 5.8 -2.1 4.1 1.3 4.9 4.2 4.9 4.5 4.9 4.3 1.1 2.2 0.8 0.7 0.8 1.0
TOTAL CONSUMPTION 2.2 3.8 0.6 3.0 4.0 6.0 4.5 4.6 2.8 3.6 0.1 0.7 2.0 1.9 2.1 2.1 2.2
Residential investment                 -13.0 19.5 -13.3 2.0 23.6 14.9 2.6 -5.1 -1.4 3.8 -22.8 -11.5 12.2 29.2 7.9 3.6 0.7
Non-market investment                 -4.8 13.0 -13.8 21.9 13.7 15.6 13.7 2.7 -5.4 -11.5 11.4 8.3 -11.2 -3.6 3.8 4.6 4.1
Market investment                     2.6 6.9 8.0 6.9 2.3 12.2 11.6 11.1 -1.2 8.5 -1.7 -11.4 6.3 12.3 5.1 3.1 3.4
TOTAL INVESTMENT -2.3 10.6 0.4 6.8 7.8 13.0 8.8 6.2 -2.0 5.6 -7.1 -9.7 7.0 16.0 6.1 3.6 3.2
Stock change (contribution to growth) -0.3 1.2 -0.3 0.1 -0.1 0.2 0.3 -0.5 -0.7 0.7 0.0 -1.9 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.0
GROSS NATIONAL EXPENDITURE 0.9 6.3 0.3 3.8 4.7 7.6 5.8 4.5 1.1 4.7 -1.5 -3.3 3.2 5.9 3.6 2.6 2.4
Exports 2.9 7.4 6.3 3.0 7.8 1.1 4.8 -0.2 2.9 3.2 -3.0 3.2 1.8 4.5 3.0 2.8 2.9
Imports 2.1 11.3 -0.7 4.0 7.2 12.7 12.5 4.2 -1.6 10.1 -4.3 -9.5 6.0 10.5 5.0 2.4 2.0
EXPENDITURE ON GDP 1.2 5.1 2.4 3.5 4.9 3.9 3.6 3.3 2.3 2.6 -1.0 0.5 2.2 3.9 2.9 2.7 2.7
GDP (production measure) 0.5 5.3 2.4 3.5 4.9 4.3 3.7 3.2 0.8 2.9 -1.5 -0.4 2.2 3.4 2.9 2.7 2.7
 - annual % change 2.6 6.3 0.7 4.5 4.6 5.2 2.4 2.4 1.7 2.1 -3.2 1.9 2.5 3.2 2.7 2.8 2.7
Real GDP per capita -0.3 4.7 1.8 2.6 3.0 2.4 2.2 2.0 -0.4 1.8 -2.4 -1.6 1.1 2.4 2.0 1.8 1.8
Nominal GDP (expenditure basis) 1.7 6.0 5.6 7.4 5.2 7.0 7.1 5.7 5.0 7.6 1.7 1.7 6.4 5.7 5.5 5.2 4.7
GDP deflator 0.5 0.8 3.2 3.8 0.3 2.9 3.4 2.3 2.6 4.8 2.7 1.3 4.1 1.7 2.5 2.4 1.9
Output gap (% deviation, March year average) -1.9 0.6 0.0 0.1 1.0 1.4 1.7 2.3 1.4 3.1 0.4 -1.5 -1.1 -0.1 -0.4 -0.5 -0.4
Employment -0.6 1.9 2.0 2.9 2.8 3.0 3.6 2.8 2.2 1.3 0.9 -1.3 1.3 1.7 1.8 1.7 1.5
Unemployment (% March quarter s.a.)          7.5 6.5 5.5 5.3 5.0 4.3 3.9 4.0 3.9 3.9 5.1 6.0 6.1 5.2 4.9 4.6 4.5
Wages (average ordinary-time hourly, ann % change)         3.1 1.7 3.1 3.6 2.2 3.4 3.5 5.2 4.6 4.5 5.3 2.2 2.9 3.6 4.2 4.1 3.8
CPI inflation (ann % change)      -0.1 1.5 3.1 2.6 2.5 1.5 2.8 3.3 2.5 3.4 3.0 2.0 4.5 2.9 2.6 2.2 2.0
Merchandise terms of trade (SNA basis)       0.9 0.2 3.4 4.0 -5.6 4.3 3.5 -2.0 -1.1 8.5 -0.6 -6.3 7.0 -2.7 1.8 1.9 1.3
Current account balance - $billion           -4.0 -6.9 -4.4 -3.4 -4.1 -6.1 -9.3 -13.9 -13.3 -14.4 -14.7 -4.5 -3.9 -10.1 -15.1 -15.3 -14.2
Current account balance - % of GDP           -3.8 -6.2 -3.7 -2.7 -3.1 -4.3 -6.2 -8.7 -7.9 -7.9 -8.0 -2.4 -2.0 -4.8 -6.8 -6.6 -5.8
TWI (March quarter)                          57.6 54.1 50.5 51.6 60.6 66.9 69.6 68.3 68.8 71.9 53.7 65.3 68.7 63.1 59.1 55.6 53.0
90-day bank bill rate (March quarter)        4.5 6.0 6.4 5.0 5.8 5.5 6.9 7.6 7.8 8.8 3.7 2.7 3.3 4.5 5.0 5.0 5.0
10-year bond rate (March quarter)            5.7 7.3 6.0 6.7 6.0 5.9 6.0 5.7 5.9 6.3 4.6 5.9 5.2 5.3 5.4 5.4 5.5
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