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Budget 2007 Home Page Half Year Economic & Fiscal Update 2007

Unquantified Risks

The risks outlined in these tables would, if they eventuated, impact on the Government’s forecast new operating and/or capital spending amounts.

Unquantified Risks as at
5 December 2007
Operating Balance Gross Debt Funding Received in Budget 2007  ($million)
New Risks      
Agriculture and Forestry – Industry Partnership for Food and Pastoral Innovation Decrease Increase -
Social Development – Children, Young Persons, and Their Families Act Decrease Increase -
Environment – Purchase of Kyoto Compliant Emission Units - Increase -
Housing – Tamaki - Increase -
Justice – Financial Action Taskforce Recommendations Decrease Increase -
Justice – Greater Auckland Region Service Delivery Strategy Decrease Increase -
Local Government – Responses to Rates Inquiry Decrease Increase -
Māori Affairs – Māori Business Aotearoa New Zealand Decrease Increase -
Prime Minister and Cabinet – Government House Wellington Refurbishment Decrease Increase -
Revenue – Changes to the Petroleum Mining Tax Rules Decrease - -
Changed Risks      
Finance – SOE Long-term Hold Reviews - Decrease -
Health – District Health Board Deficits Decrease Increase -
Health – Strengthening Child and Adolescent Oral Health Services Decrease - -
Immigration – New Immigration Service Delivery Strategy Decrease Increase -
National Library – National Library Building Redevelopment - Increase -
Revenue – Life Insurance Unclear - 25 per annum (reduced revenue)
Revenue – Management of Inland Revenue Lease Portfolio in Auckland Decrease - -
Revenue – Working for Families Review of Rates Decrease - -
Transport – Regional Transport Projects - Increase -
Unchanged Risks      
Corrections – Collective Employment Contract Negotiations Decrease - -
Economic Development – Radio Spectrum Rights Increase - -
Economic Development – Shanghai Expo 2010: New Zealand Participation Decrease - -
Education – Schools ICT Network Infrastructure Upgrade Decrease Increase -
Education (Tertiary) – Wananga Capital Injections - Increase -
Education – Year One Class Sizes Decrease Increase -
Education (Tertiary) – Tertiary Education Institutions – Capital Injections - Increase -
Education (Tertiary) – Tertiary Student Support Changes Decrease Decrease Operating expenditure of 29 from 2007/08 through to 2010/11;
capital savings of 16 through 2007/08 to 2010/11
Finance – Crown Overseas Properties - Increase -
Finance – National Rail Access Agreement Amendments Unclear Unclear -
Fisheries – Māori Interest in Marine Farming Decrease - -
Fisheries – Civilian Maritime Aerial Surveillance Decrease Increase -
Justice – Strengthening the National  Court Infrastructure Decrease Increase -
Police – Wage Negotiations Decrease - -
Revenue – International Tax Review Decrease - -
Revenue – Rebuild of the Student Loan IT System Decrease Increase -
Revenue – Reducing Compliance Costs for Small and Medium-sized Enterprises Unclear - -
Revenue – Renegotiation of Double Tax Agreements Decrease - -
Social Development – Working New Zealand: Work-focused Support Decrease - -
Social Development / Housing – Accommodation Supplement Review Decrease Increase -
Transport – Cost Guarantee for the State Highway Programme - Increase -
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