Other Revenue

Other core Crown revenue is forecast to increase slightly as a GDP over the forecast period. This is primarily due to the introduction of an ETS. The ETS will create tradable units (the NZ Unit) and will generate revenue when surrendered to the Government by emitters. Further information on the ETS can be found on page 44.

Inland Revenue’s tax forecasts

In line with established practice, Inland Revenue has also prepared a set of tax forecasts, which, like the Treasury’s tax forecast, is based on the Treasury’s macroeconomic forecast. Inland Revenue’s forecasts are shown here for comparative purposes. The Treasury’s forecasts remain the Crown’s official forecasts.

Source: Inland Revenue, The Treasury

The main differences between the Treasury’s and Inland Revenue’s forecasts occur in:

• net other persons tax, where the two agencies have differing views on the amount of tax that will be payable on the additional dairy income
• corporate taxes, where Treasury’s forecast is initially lower than Inland Revenue’s, but is higher by 2012, owing to Treasury forecasting a higher average growth rate than Inland Revenue, and
• GST, where Inland Revenue’s implicit GST rate on nominal private consumption is higher than the Treasury’s from 2009 onwards.

Core Crown – Expenses

Source: The Treasury

Expense growth

Figure 2.11 – Core expenses ($ and % of GDP)

Source:  The Treasury

Core Crown expenses are forecast to increase by around 1% of GDP between 2007/08 and 2011/12. In nominal terms, expenses are forecast to increase by $12.9 billion over the same period.

Budget initiatives

Figure 2.12 – Net amounts for new operating initiatives

Source:  The Treasury

The forecast growth in expenses largely arises from expense initiatives introduced in recent Budgets. A number of policy decisions made in previous Budgets have rising spending profiles to allow sufficient time for full implementation. The enhancement to the KiwiSaver initiative announced in Budget 2007 is one of the main drivers of this rising profile (around $0.8 billion in 2007/08 rising to around $1.4 billion by 2011/12).

The fiscal forecasts also include indicative amounts for new operating initiatives for future Budgets. The allowances for each of the next four Budgets have been set at around $2 billion, so are broadly consistent with the forecast growth in the economy. New operating spending initiatives add around $8 billion to the expense base by the end of the forecast horizon.

Emissions Trading Scheme

As part of the new ETS the Government has agreed to allocate NZ Units to emitters free of charge. This has resulted in an increase to expenses of $0.6 billion in 2008/09 and $0.5 billion in subsequent forecast years. Further information on the ETS can be found on page 44.

Benefit expenses

Social security and welfare expenses are forecast to broadly grow in line with the forecast growth in the economy. In nominal terms they are forecast to increase from $17.9 billion in 2007/08 to $20.4 billion in 2011/12. Around $1.7 billion of this reflects cost of living adjustments for New Zealand Superannuation payments and welfare benefits, which reflect inflationary pressures. Most benefits are adjusted each April by the CPI movement over the previous calendar year.

Partly offsetting nominal growth in benefit expense forecasts are second round effects from the assumed revenue reduction contingency. They assume tax paid on benefits will be lower, resulting in reduced gross payment of benefits for the Government.